At last, the NHL ‘Preseason’ is over and we get to the best part – the quest for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Recent history shows us that seeding means virtually nothing – if you qualify for the playoffs, you have a chance to make a deep run, and there are at least eight teams that have legitimate Cup aspirations. Let’s break down the Western Conference first, and we’ll look at the Eastern conference tomorrow.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
#1 Vancouver vs. #8 Los Angeles:
Offense – Vancouver scored 249 goals, and ranked fourth with a 19.8% power play. Los Angeles scored 194 goals with a 17% power play. LA was the only playoff team to score less than 200 goals, and that was their Achilles’ heel all season (although adding Jeff Carter at the trade deadline was a big help). Amazing stat of the series: the Kings had only FIVE players score 10 or more goals (Vancouver had 10)!! That’s almost unheard of, and puts tremendous pressure on their top line to score. ADVANTAGE: CANUCKS, and it’s really not close.
Defense – Vancouver allowed 194 goals and had an 86% penalty kill. Los Angeles allowed 179 goals and had an 87% penalty kill. Obviously both teams kill penalties well, but the Kings were much better defending 5-on-5, and overall I think they have the better blue line. ADVANTAGE: KINGS.
Goaltending – Roberto Luongo 2.41 GAA, .919 save% vs. Jonathan Quick 1.95 GAA, .929 save%. Quick has had the better season – frankly, he was their MVP and the reason they made the playoffs – but Luongo is battle-tested and plays in a more wide-open offense. One major difference: if Luongo stumbles even a little, Vancouver has an outstanding backup in Cory Schneider – while the Kings will go only as far as Quick takes them. This is pretty close to dead even, but Quick has had the better season and Luongo has had some brittle moments in the playoffs. ADVANTAGE: KINGS
Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Alain Vigneault is a proven coach in Vancouver, having led the team to the Cup Finals a season ago. LA changed coaches in December, and while Darryl Sutter is a veteran coach, he hasn’t produced the same kind of results. Vancouver has been through the gauntlet of a Finals run and seems hungry to get back there, while the Kings have had no playoff success. L.A. HAS to score first as they fare the worst of any playoff team if they give up the first goal. One major injury could impact the series: Vancouver’s leading goal scorer Daniel Sedin is out with a concussion.
Prediction – The Kings may have small advantages in goal and on defense, but the Canucks have a HUGE advantage offensively – it’s so hard to win with only one scoring line today. I just don’t see the Kings scoring enough to pull off the upset. Quick can steal a game or two, but I like the CANUCKS IN SIX.
#2 St. Louis vs. #7 San Jose:
Offense – St. Louis scored 210 goals and had a 16.7% power play, while San Jose scored 228 goals and had an outstanding 21.1% power play. The Blues had no 30-goal scorers and no player amassed more than 54 points – but they had nine score 10+ goals, and they got contributions from three lines. The Sharks had three 30-goal scorers, but no other player even scored 20. If the series is played 5-on-5 with few penalties, it will definitely favor the Blues, but San Jose’s power play is enough to give them the edge here. ADVANTAGE: SHARKS
Defense – St. Louis allowed a league-low 165 goals, and killed 85.6% of penalties. San Jose allowed 210 goals and had the second-worst PK in the game at only 76.9%. Ken Hitchcock-coached teams always play tough ‘D’, and this Blues team is no exception – they are STACKED on the blue line and play his system to perfection. ADVANTAGE – BLUES
Goaltending – St. Louis has Jaroslav Halak (1.97 GAA, .926 save%) and Brian Elliott (1.56 GAA, .940 save%) vs. San Jose’s Antti Niemi (2.42GAA, .915 sv%). Even allowing for the fact that Hitchcock’s system makes goalies look better than they are, there’s simply no contest here – the Blues have the best goaltending tandem in the league. ADVANTAGE – BLUES
Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Hitchcock took over the Blues after 13 games – they were 6-7 and seemed like the same old mediocre Blues we’ve seen for years. They went 43-15-11 under his leadership. Meanwhile, San Jose’s Todd McLellan has seen his team’s win total decrease every season he’s coached them. Hitchcock’s system hasn’t been a playoff winner, so watch for that…but otherwise, it sure seems like a huge advantage for St. Louis. Both teams are completely healthy.
Prediction – The Blues were by far the hottest team in the NHL from November through early March – but they have only four wins in their last 12 games, a slump which cost them the #1 overall seed (as an aside, I’m very glad – who would want to watch the Kings and Blues play six or seven 1-0 games?). The question is, did the Blues peak too early, and do the Sharks have one more run left in them? I’m not sold on the Blues to go far in the playoffs – at some point you need real talent at forward – but against the undisciplined and fading Sharks, I think they will get it done. BLUES IN FIVE.
#3 Phoenix vs. #6 Chicago:
Offense – Phoenix scored 216 goals with a 13.6% power play, while Chicago scored 248 goals with a 15.2% power play – these are the two worst power plays among playoff teams. Chicago has Kane, Toews, Hossa, and Sharp…the Coyotes have Doan, Ray Whitney, and the surprising Radim Vrbata. Phoenix has some weapons, but the ‘Hawks are among the most potent offenses in the league…ADVANTAGE: BLACKHAWKS
Defense – Phoenix allowed 204 goals and killed 85.5% of penalties, while Chicago allowed 238 goals and killed only 78.1% on the PK. Keith Yandle headlines an underrated blue line corps for the Coyotes, while the Blackhawks have a top pair in Keith and Seabrook but questions after that. Phoenix’ punchless power play vs. Chicago’s weak penalty kill will be a key matchup. ADVANTAGE: COYOTES
Goaltending – Coyotes’ Mike Smith (2.21 GAA, .930 save% vs. ‘Hawks’ Corey Crawford (2.72 GAA, .903 save%). Smith was a revelation in the desert this season, enjoying a career year after being cast aside by Tampa. Goaltending has been an issue for two seasons in Chicago, and Crawford was definitely a weak link again this year. ADVANTAGE: COYOTES
Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Each team boasts seasoned coaches with proven records in Tippett and Quenneville – what Tippett has done in Phoenix, with a constant exodus of talent, has been amazing. The only injury is to Chicago C Dave Bolland. Most of the Blackhawks have Cup-winning experience, while the Coyotes by and large have never experienced playoff success.
Prediction – There’s no doubt that Chicago has significant vulnerability on defense and (especially) in goal…the question is whether the Coyotes have enough offense to exploit that. Both of these teams overachieved to a certain extent, especially Phoenix – Smith was really good, but he has to prove it wasn’t a fluke now that the pressure is really on. This should be an excellent series…but I think that Chicago’s defensive issues are just too much to overcome. COYOTES IN SIX.
#4 Nashville vs. #5 Detroit:
Offense – Nashville scored 237 goals, and had the NHL’s #1 power play at 21.6%, while Detroit scored 248 goals and had a 16.1% power play. Detroit had 11 players score 10+ goals, and 14 record 20+ points…and of course they have tons of skill with Zetterberg, Datsyuk, Franzen, and Hudler. Nashville had only two 20-goal scorers, but they have perhaps the top pair of offensive defensemen in Suter and Weber – the pair combined for 26 goals and were a big reason Nashville was #1 on the power play. I love Weber and Suter, and the late-season addition of Alexander Radulov really helps, but even with their advancing age I have to give the nod to Detroit. ADVANTAGE: RED WINGS
Defense – Nashville allowed 210 goals and killed 83.6% of penalties, while Detroit allowed 203 goals and had a kill rate of 81.8%. I was VERY surprised to see that Detroit gave up fewer goals than the stingy Predators – that just shows how under-the-radar the Wings really were this season. Nicklas Lidstrom had another great year at age 41, and the Red Wings STILL go 6-deep on defense. The Predators have Suter and Weber, and they each average over 26 minutes per game…but their other four defensemen are a lot more suspect. Are two outstanding defensemen enough? I guess we will see. Given the minutes those two play and the fact that the teams have similar penalty-kill stats, I can’t give an edge here. ADVANTAGE: EVEN
Goaltending – Detroit’s Jimmy Howard (2.12 GAA, .920 save%) vs. Nashville’s Pekka Rinne (2.39 GAA, .923 save%). Howard has become a fine goalie and has put up some excellent numbers, but Rinne can carry a team when he’s on. Can’t go wrong with either, but I’ll take Rinne. ADVANTAGE: PREDATORS
Coaching/Intangibles/Injuries – Barry Trotz has been Nashville’s only coach, while Mike Babcock has led the Wings to three Cup Finals and one Cup win – suffice it to say, both coaches have the trust and respect of their teams. Both teams are healthy, and Detroit’s playoff experience is balanced out by their age – most of their top players are on the wrong side of thirty. That shouldn’t be an issue in this series, but can the Wings maintain their energy for four rounds anymore?
Prediction – This sets up as the best first-round series in the West, and the margin should be razor-thin. Detroit has the talent to pull this out, but I think Rinne will steal a couple of games and the powerful Predator power play will score some big goals as well. Frankly, adding Radulov puts them over the top….PREDATORS IN SEVEN.
Tomorrow, we’ll take a close look at the Eastern matchups…focusing on the Pennsylvania Showdown between the Flyers and the Pens!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
