The beginning of March is always the ‘calm before the storm’ in the sporting world – spring training has started, but meaningful baseball is still a month away. March Madness is still ten days away, and the NHL and NBA playoffs are still weeks away as well. I was going to start our baseball preview this week, but I think we’ll start that next week – that gives us four columns of baseball previews, about the right amount I think. This week, we’ll take a quick look around the world of sports with a return of the bullet points.
-In the NHL, the most amazing story at this time has to be the New Jersey Devils. Left for dead in early January when they were 10-29-2, they have staged a remarkable comeback. They have gone 18-2-2 since then, 10-1 in their last 11, and perhaps most amazingly have not allowed more than two goals in a game in exactly one month. Unfortunately, they remain four slots and nine points out of the playoffs – with only 18 games remaining; that’s still a tall mountain to climb – but they have become very relevant again, after looking like a sure bet to be the worst team in the league. Pittsburgh faces the Devils three more times, starting Friday night, and suddenly the games look to have a lot of meaning for both squads.
-Staying with hockey, allow me to express my frustration at the NHL’s injury policy. Most major sports have rules requiring teams to disclose the nature of players’ injuries, and give consistent updates on the progress. This makes sense from a business perspective – the fans pay the bills, after all, and they want to know how their favorite players are doing. However, the NHL consistently allows teams to use cryptic language like ‘upper-body injury’ and does not mandate any updates regarding a player’s recovery. The argument I’ve heard from the league usually involves some form of ‘if we tell other teams where our guys are hurt, they will target that area upon their return’. This is a very flimsy argument – first of all, if players ‘target’ anyone to injure or re-injure them, the refs and the league should deal with that swiftly and harshly. Second, there is no more physical or violent league than the NFL, and there are plenty of opportunities in piles for players to ‘target’ other players – yet the NFL furnishes injury updates weekly, and I’ve not heard of players intentionally ‘targeting’ a player who has recently returned to the lineup.
Frankly, the NHL’s stance is one more way the league is out of touch with its fan base and with the rest of the sporting world…and I hope they see fit to promote more dialogue on this matter in the future.
-Speaking of a league out of touch with its fan base…this espn.com article by Bill Simmons is hands-down the BEST I’ve read about the NFL labor situation yet. I was actually prepared to write about the sheer lunacy of this situation, but Simmons sums it up better than I ever could. It’s worth a read if you are any kind of football fan.
-This column by my favorite writer, Joe Posnanski, illustrates two points brilliantly: #1, it’s very difficult to win in golf. Quoting from his column:
“To win a golf tournament, any golf tournament, you have to score lower than 100 or so of the best golfers in the world. That is: You have to beat the golfer who that week is draining every putt. You have to beat the golfer who found a groove in his swing and is hitting every fairway. You have to beat the golfer who luckily chips in a couple of times, making his score artificially low. You have to beat the golfer who gets hot, makes five or six or seven birdies in a row, and rides that high. And you also have to beat the other great golfers, the ones who have extreme talent and burning competitiveness and want desperately to be the best in the world. At the major championships, all of this is doubly true.”
I never quite thought of it that way, but he’s absolutely right – and that’s why winning multiple majors is so rare on the PGA Tour. The talent is so even that on any given week, luck definitely plays a role in the outcome. That’s what makes Tiger Woods’ career so amazing, and perhaps why it’s so hard for us grab on to Joe’s second brilliant point: It’s extremely unlikely that Woods will ever be a dominant golfer again. As Joe points out, for Tiger to overtake Nicklaus for career major victories, he essentially has to match what Phil Mickelson has done…over Phil’s ENTIRE 16-YEAR CAREER. Phil is acknowledged as one of the best golfers in history, yet he has only won four majors. Is it possible for Tiger to have another dominant run in him as he approaches 40? Yes. Is it likely? I’m forced to conclude that no, it’s not likely, and that’s a shame. Love him or hate him, Tiger at his best is good for golf and good for sports in general – it’s so rare to see such a transcendent talent. I hope we get a few more glimpses before his career ends.
-We’ll end this week with a look at what spring training is good and not good for. It is EXTREMELY useful for determining a player’s health prospects – if a pitcher has a sore elbow in March, or a speedster’s hamstring is already tight, it’s a good bet that they will have some problems all season. I pay very close attention to injury reports at this time of year – and it’s important to read past the reassuring words. Pittsburgh’s Joe Beimel felt forearm tightness last week and was scheduled for an MRI – Beimel was quoted as saying the injury was ‘no big deal’, and the team called the MRI ‘precautionary’. It’s POSSIBLE that Beimel will recover and pitch fine all season – but ANY MRI is a big warning flag for a player, and any pitcher that is complaining of forearm problems almost certainly has an elbow issue at the heart of the matter.
The other thing spring training is good for is figuring out playing time and roles – at least through April. In March 2001, the Cardinals were gushing over a player I’d never heard of. This player was a 13th-round draft pick, but his minor-league stats were astounding. Already there were whispers that he was older than reported, and I was dubious, but when the team named him their starting third baseman I took note and knew he’d be given every chance to keep the job. It didn’t take long until Albert Pujols was a household name. Now, obviously not every hotshot rookie who is given a starting job immediately takes off, and teams will definitely pull the plug on a player if he gets off to a poor start, but in general once a team names a player a starter, that’s a good indication of the team’s long-term thoughts, and that player will usually get every chance to prove himself. Watch how the depth chart unfolds for teams in spring training, especially for young prospects.
So, what is spring training NOT good for? Predicting ANYTHING about a team’s overall chances of winning, or predicting how a player will perform based on March stats. Last season the team with the worst spring-training record was Pittsburgh – but the Texas Rangers were almost as bad. The Yankees were 13-15 in spring training, while Cleveland was 19-9. Granted, Tampa and the Giants finished with the best spring training records in 2010, but I do not believe that was any more than coincidence. Do yourself a favor and ignore the won-lost records this month – they are as meaningless as NFL preseason games.
As for individual players, this is easy…here are the 2010 spring training home run leaders: Chris Johnson had 8; John Bowker, Mike Napoli, Aaron Hill, and Sean Rodriguez tied for second with six each. Now there are some March stats that can possibly reveal some useful info – for example the 2010 spring training strikeout list is chock full of good pitchers – but by and large I think it’s wise to disregard spring stats. Think about it – the competition is vastly thinned out, with 40-60 players from each team competing, split-squad games, and teams holding their best pitchers to strict regimens. In that environment, of course you’re going to get some weird stats. Wait until the end of April to really look at the stats.
Next week, we start our MLB preview with the AL West and Central previews.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
