OK, I didn’t see THAT coming – the best team in the NFL is knocked off, and opportunity knocks for the remaining teams. You can make a very strong case for each of these teams to win, both this week and in the Super Bowl, but the team that appears to benefit the most from last week’s action is Pittsburgh – instead of a road game against a team they don’t match up well against, they get a home game against a Jets team that they can certainly beat. On the NFC side, as soon as Seattle won their opener I felt like Packers-Bears was a likely scenario, and that should be a dandy in Soldier Field. Let’s take a look at both games, and also a brief look at the NHL as we near the All-Star break.
Packers at Bears: I’ve talked a lot about the Packers the past few weeks, and by now you should have a pretty good idea that I like this team and think they are the class of the NFC. The Bears clearly thought they were dangerous as well – in Week 17, with nothing to play for, the Bears didn’t rest anyone, preferring to play all-out against Green Bay in an attempt to keep them out of the playoffs. The Bears lost, 10-3, but showed that they can slow down the explosive Green Bay offense. In fact, in two games the Packers scored a total of 27 points – they averaged over 24 per game on the season, so Chicago clearly understands how to slow Green Bay down. Having said that, the Packers’ offense is very explosive and seems to be peaking at the right time, so Chicago cannot expect to win a defensive battle here – they will likely need 20-25 points to win.
Chicago’s offense is the key to this game – Jay Cutler was decent this season but has been very good since the team’s week 8 bye, and was amazing last week against Seattle. He will need a similar performance Sunday – this is a Bear offense that was plagued by turnovers and inconsistency this season, and they MUST win the turnover battle to win this game. Also, the line has protected Cutler a lot better of late and against Green Bay’s relentless pressure that will also be key – there are downfield plays available for Cutler if he gets time to throw.
The weather may also play a big role; the temperature is forecast to be 20 or below, and in Chicago there’s always a chance it will be windy. I have no clue who this would favor, though – both teams are cold-weather teams and neither has a great running game. In the end, I’ve liked Green Bay all year; they are a hot team with a QB who is making his case as one of the best in the league. He will have to have an off-day for Chicago to win. I think the Packers have too many weapons and Green Bay will win a relatively high-scoring game – Green Bay by a TD.
Jets at Steelers: Last spring I talked about how big a break the Penguins got by avoiding Washington and facing the Canadiens. It was a break, but the team failed to take advantage of that break, losing in seven games. The Steelers find themselves in a remarkably similar position – the ‘big dog’ got knocked off, giving Pittsburgh the home field against a lesser opponent – and a much better matchup for the Steelers; Tom Brady has routinely carved up the Steeler ‘D’, including earlier this year. However, as big a break as this was, the team has to capitalize for it to mean something. The Jets are a feisty bunch, riding a big wave of confidence – and rightly so, they just beat Manning and Brady. They played good defense in both games and got just enough offense to win – a formula they will likely look to again this Sunday. The Jets, despite having big-play receivers, do not boast a big-time passing attack; they rely on their running game to set up the pass. Their ability to run will be a key factor this week; they ran for 106 yards against the Steelers in December, the most they allowed to any team (the Pats ran for 103; no other team ran for more than 75 against them). The Jets’ lifeblood is their running game – they ran for over 100 yards in every game but one this year, while passing for over 300 yards in only one game all season. If the Jets can run enough to keep drives moving, they will shorten the game and make this a very close, down-to-the-wire type of game. If the Steelers stuff their running game and force Sanchez to beat them, I believe he will falter with a turnover or two – another key to the game. Pittsburgh forced at least one turnover in all but two games this season – and those games were the Pats game and the Jets game. No coincidence that both were losses.
Defensively, the Jets are very strong against the pass – only two teams passed for 300 yards against them all year – but they were surprisingly soft against the run, allowing eight teams to rush for over 100 yards against them – including the Steelers, whose 146 rushing yards were the most allowed by the Jets all season. The Jets thrive off of their coverage – they recorded 40 sacks, but many of them were due to great coverage downfield. This presents an interesting matchup, as the Jets want to force QBs to hold the ball a long time and force mistakes, while Roethlisberger is the all-time master of extending plays until he finds an open man. If Ben’s improv act breaks the defense down, it will force the Jets to bring more pressure and lead to more big-play potential for the Steelers – on the flip side, Ben has to avoid costly sacks and especially turnovers when he’s running around in the pocket.
A little aside here – everyone knows how good the Steeler defense was against the run this year – but the entire defense isn’t getting their due, in my opinion. This is a team that allowed only one team to throw for 300+ yards (yes, the Pats – see why they caught a break this week?), and forced two or more turnovers in 13 of 17 games! So let’s see…no 100-yard rushers (only two teams above that mark), one 300-yard passer, tons of turnovers, only 14.5 points allowed per game – and all of this in an era of big-time offense? The Jets won the last game 22-17, getting a kickoff return TD and a safety. The defense allowed only 13 points! Against the Ravens last week, one of the top teams in the NFL, the Steeler ‘D’ allowed less than 130 total yards! Now, if they lose this week most people will forget all this, especially if the defense has a bad day – but if the Steelers win these next two games, I believe we’ll look back on this team, and especially this defense, as one of the very best in team history – and that’s a LOT of great history.
As for the offense, Steeler fans LOVE to complain about what the team doesn’t do well. The line isn’t great, Ben holds the ball too long, Bruce Arians is a terrible play caller, etc. etc. Let’s examine these ideas: #1, the Steelers amassed 400+ yards of total offense in eight of their last 10 games – the exceptions being the Ravens games, both wins. #2 the line HAS struggled at times, but given that they are down both starting tackles and a guard, I actually think the line has done remarkably well under the circumstances. Take ANY NFL team and replace three linemen in training camp or later and that line will struggle. Ben does compound this by holding the ball too long, and there are times I wish the coaches would more forcefully impress on him that an incomplete pass isn’t always a bad thing. #3, Arians isn’t perfect, but this is a pretty good offense and I think the stability that he has provided has been crucial – and he’s made some very good play calls down the stretch, as the team got much better in the red zone.
Special teams played a big role, arguably the decisive role in the last game – Pittsburgh has to cover kicks and punts well, when Pittsburgh struggles it’s usually because they are defending short fields or allowing special teams TDs. When you crunch the numbers, the odds are that the Steelers will outgain the Jets by a significant margin Sunday – if they don’t turn the ball over and if they cover well on special teams, they should win fairly easily. They will probably allow at least one lengthy return, and that return will probably set up a score – but once again, the best QB here is on Pittsburgh’s side, I think he will have a big game and send the Steelers to their 8th Super Bowl – and if it’s against the Packers, what a show between two storied franchises! We’ll see how it plays out this weekend…
Quickly, let’s look around the NHL as we’re past the midpoint of the season. We’ll look in-depth at Pittsburgh next week, this week I’m going to hand out some meaningless mid-season awards and identify some surprises and disappointments.
Midseason Hart Trophy (MVP): Crosby. Even while out seven games he still leads the league in points, and Thursday’s game against the Devils (more on them in a sec) shows how much he is missed.
Midseason Norris Trophy (best defenseman): Kris Letang. This is a bit of a ‘homer’ vote, sure, but he’s tied for 3rd in defenseman scoring, and he leads the league in plus/minus – which essentially means that when he’s on the ice, the Pens score a LOT more goals than they allow. Scoring leader Nick Lidstrom (seemingly ageless at 40) has a -2 rating to Letang’s +21 – it’s not a perfect stat, but in this case it indicates that Letang has had a better all-around year. More on him next week.
Midseason Vezina (best goalie): Tim Thomas of Boston is 22-4-6, has allowed 1.83 goals per game and has a save% of .945. That last number is unsustainable, so he will regress over the second half – but with such a great first half, unless he really collapses he will be the favorite until the end. Incredible bounceback year for Thomas, who many thought was washed up at age 36 after a mediocre 2009-10 season.
Midseason Jack Adams (top coach): This is a tough one, because Dallas’ Marc Crawford has the Stars leading their division when many (including me) thought they’d struggle to make the playoffs…but I’m going with Philly’s Peter Laviolette. A year after making the playoffs by a single point, the Flyers are the class of the league and show no signs of slipping at all. I may not like the Flyers, but I have to give credit where it’s due – whatever Laviolette is selling, the team is buying, and they are a force to be reckoned with.
Most surprising team: as mentioned, no one expected that Dallas would be such a strong contender at this point, yet they are fourth in the league in points and look like the odds-on favorite to get a top-3 seed. Atlanta and Phoenix also have to get a mention here – Atlanta because they traded their best player and have been wildly successful without him, and the Coyotes because they just keep winning no matter their financial peril or the large roster turnover.
Most disappointing team: Devils in a landslide. The defending Atlantic Division champs signed Ilya Kovalchuk and appeared to be reborn as an offensive threat – instead they are the worst team in the league and completely out of the playoff picture. Honorable mention to the LA Kings, picked by many (including me) to win their division yet today they sit six points out of a playoff spot.
Most surprising (improved) player: I’d probably vote for Letang – he’s been amazing – but let’s go outside the Penguins’ roster and pick Dallas’ Loui Eriksson. In his fifth season Eriksson is 9th in the league in scoring and averaging more than a point per game – a big part of the Stars’ success. Honorable mention goes to Tim Thomas and Montreal goalie Carey Price, who has picked up for the departed Jaroslav Halak admirably.
Most disappointing player: This has to go to Ovechkin – yes, he’s still top-10 in points (barely), but he’s on pace for less than 30 goals and barely a point per game, despite leading the league in shots. For a player who’s never scored less than 46 goals and 92 points in a season, a 29-goal, 80-point pace is a major disappointment. However, if the Caps have a deep playoff run, I suspect all will be forgiven. Honorable mention goes to Ilya Kovalchuk and Martin Brodeur of the Devils, both of whom have endured rotten seasons thus far.
Next week, we’ll review the Penguins at the all-star break, and look around the rest of the sports world a bit.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
