The NFL always calls the second playoff week the ‘Divisional round’, and never has that been as apt as in the AFC this season. Two HUGE rivalries take center stage in Foxboro and Pittsburgh, while in the NFC I firmly believe the true NFC title game is being played a week early in Atlanta – I think the Packers and Falcons are the class of the conference and will beat either the Bears or Seahawks. I didn’t fare so well last week in my picks, so we’ll also take a look at where I went wrong a week ago.
Seahawks at Bears: EVERYONE missed on the Seahawks last week, reminding us all that in pro sports, there are no sure bets. Looking back, it’s easy to say that the Saints missed Ivory and Thomas in the backfield, and the short week and long plane ride hurt them – but they still scored 36 points and were leading 17-7 before imploding. No, the defense, especially the secondary, really let the Saints down – but give credit to the Seahawks, I cannot imagine their offense playing much better than it did last week. It will take a similar effort to beat a rested Bears team that played much better after their Week 8 bye. The Bears finished 7-2, with losses only to the Patriots and to the Packers (in a game that was meaningless for Chicago). The strength of the team is clearly the defense – Chicago allowed the 4th-fewest points in the league and held 10 opponents under 20 points – allowing only two to score 30 or more. Only the Steelers allowed fewer rush yards, so don’t look for Marshawn Lynch to repeat his jaw-dropping run against the Saints – in fact, unless they somehow get a big lead I don’t look for the Seahawks to even try to run the ball that much.
Offensively, the Bears are very Jekyll-and-Hyde, which is the way Mike Martz offenses always seem to perform – either very good or very bad. QB Jay Cutler likes to gamble and can be very careless with the ball, and the line was not good at pass protection all season. However, they boast a top WR in Johnny Knox and a very versatile back in Matt Forte. Given the below-average Seattle defense, I’m confident Chicago will put up 20-24 points in this game, which puts pressure on Seattle to score.
We discussed the Seahawks at length last week, and despite their remarkable performance, I still maintain that this is a bad team. Bad teams have good games, and it’s quite possible that Seattle could put together back-to-back good games, but betting that way is a good way to lose. Also, I firmly believe that of the four teams that received a bye, Chicago is by far the worst of that group, and the most prone to self-destructing – which gives Seattle a puncher’s chance. In the end, though, I think they had their day in the sun a week ago, and CHICAGO will win a relatively close game on their home field.
Jets at Patriots: I’m not going to spend a lot of time on this matchup; if you follow football at all then you’ve probably heard more than you care to about both teams and especially both coaches. I can lay out a few scenarios where the Jets win this game, most centered around turnovers and special teams plays – and as I said above, in pro sports anything really is possible – but let’s be realistic, New England was by far the best offense in football this season. Did you realize they scored 20+ points in 15 of 16 games, and 30+ in their last eight games? Also, those were not all creampuff defenses they beat up on – they scored 31 on the Packers, 39 on the Steelers, 36 on the Bears, and 23 on the Ravens – the top four defenses in the game! I know the Jets were the only team to hold them under 20 points – but in their second meeting, New England put 45 on the board against them, so it’s not like Rex Ryan has a magic formula here.
New York is fortunate to even be in this game, not many teams have allowed go –ahead FGs with a minute to go and still won the game (Why Indy coach Jim Caldwell called that late timeout I’ll never understand, but I digress). The Jets didn’t play well last week, and they will need to greatly improve, especially on offense, to give the Pats a game. Making things harder is that the Pats’ defense started out as a bad defense but improved markedly down the stretch – in their last five games they allowed 3, 7, 27, 3, and 7 points – and three of those teams made the playoffs. Simply put, they are the team to beat until proven otherwise – if the Jets can keep this within seven points I’ll re-think the situation for next week, but this week I think the PATRIOTS win fairly easily.
Packers at Falcons: I said last week that the Packers remind me a lot of the 2005 Steelers – a strong team that has to fight through three road wins to make the Super Bowl, and do it against three very tough teams. One down, two to go – after a great battle with Philly, they must find a way to beat the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. QB Matt Ryan has been almost unbeatable at home since joining the NFL, and the Falcons had a great season, but as I look at their game-by-game results I see an interesting pattern: the Falcons’ offense struggled against good defenses. They scored 9 against the Steelers, 20 against the Packers, 16 against the 49ers, and 17 against the Eagles. They did score 26 against the Ravens, but that was with the aid of a blatant offensive pass interference by Roddy White that wasn’t called, and their running game was totally shut down. Against the Packers six weeks ago, they were efficient but not explosive, and allowed over 400 yards to Green Bay as well.
When I watch the Falcons, I see a great WR in White, an efficient QB, and an above-average running game. I don’t see much secondary receiving (Tony Gonzalez is finally aging), and I don’t see aggressive play calling either. The Falcons play good defense, take care of the ball, and wait for the other team to make mistakes – a solid formula and one that wins a lot of games, but against top teams sometimes you have to take more chances. I expect the Packers to take White away and force other weapons to beat them, and I expect them to put a lot of pressure on Ryan. If ‘Matty Ice’ handles that pressure well, there will be big plays available to the Falcons – but how he handles that pressure is one of the key points of this matchup.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons didn’t give up a lot of points on the year (5th in scoring defense), but they did give up a lot of yards (16th). This was exemplified in their game with Green Bay Nov. 28, as they gave up 400+ yards but only 17 points. I’m going to predict that if they give up 400 yards again, they will give up 24 or more points and most likely lose the game. The defense has to be stingier and pressure Aaron Rodgers – if Rodgers gets time, he will pick the Atlanta secondary apart.
The wildcard in this game is turnovers – they are big in any game, but in a matchup as close as this one, odds are the winner will be determined in large part by a key turnover or two. This is one aspect that slightly favors Atlanta – they were +14 in turnover differential, while the Packers were +10.
Atlanta is favored in this game, and rightly so as the rested home team – but I think the Packers have the best QB and the best defense in the NFC, and I believe that will be enough to carry them past Atlanta in what should be a whale of a ballgame. GREEN BAY in a close one.
Ravens at Steelers: If you’re reading this, you’re almost certainly a football fan and most likely a Steeler fan – which means you know all about these two teams. That means you know how closely matched these two teams are, and how the games almost always turn on a key play or two – and that Big Ben has had Baltimore’s number over the years (7-3 against Baltimore in his career). I’d love to dazzle you with a lot of stats that favor Pittsburgh, and there are some to be sure – the Steelers were a much better defense than Baltimore this year, and despite all the talk about the Ravens’ offense, Pittsburgh actually scored more points – but the truth is, these teams know each other so well and match up so well that those stats don’t mean a whole lot this week. Both teams will try to run, both will likely fail, and so the game will come down to special teams and QB play. Special teams favor the Ravens, especially on punts and kickoffs, while QB play favors Pittsburgh.
Big Ben hasn’t thrown an interception in a long time – but the last one he threw was against the Ravens, and they have a history of beating him to a pulp. Flacco doesn’t take the same kind of physical beating from Pittsburgh, but he does seem to be good for at least two or three mistakes when the two teams play – sometimes he gets away with them, like the dropped interception late in Week 4, and sometimes he pays for them, like when Polamalu strip-sacked him to turn the last meeting in Pittsburgh’s favor. In a game this close, I’m going with the rested team, the home team, and the team with the better QB – and yes, I acknowledge my bias as a Steeler fan as well. Baltimore is QUITE capable of winning this game, people – make no mistake, this could easily go either way, and I have a feeling both teams will score more than we’re used to seeing in this series – but I’ll take Ben over Flacco any day, and I think that thought will be reinforced Saturday. STEELERS by a touchdown!
Next week, NFC and AFC title games, and some hockey talk.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
