How Pennsylvania’s Population Will Change in the Next 20 Years

Samuel Stebbins, 24/7 Wall St. via The Center Square

Each year, millions of Americans pack up and move to a new state – either for a job, family reasons, a change of climate, or any number of other reasons. Migration and natural population change resulting from births and deaths can cause significant demographic shifts, which have consequences for local economies and governments.

Negative or slow population growth can lead to weaker economic growth and fewer economic opportunities – which in turn can push more people out of a given state. Population decline can also mean reduced revenue for state governments and limited funding for public works and services and reduced ability to meet budgetary obligations. Here is a look at the states collecting the most in income tax.

According to a study conducted by the Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service at the University of Virginia, Pennsylvania’s population is projected to contract by 0.3% between 2020 and 2040 – a decrease of 35,735 people. If the Cooper Center’s projections bear out, Pennsylvania will go from being the fifth most populous state to being the sixth most populous, also taking into account population changes in other states.

The projected change is a break from the trend of the last decade. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of people living in Pennsylvania climbed by 1.1%, or 142,506 people.

A full methodological explanation for how these projections were calculated can be found here.