As we hit the All-Star break, it’s a good time to look at the ‘out of nowhere’ surprises around the National League.
This seems like a good time to distinguish between ‘surprise’ and ‘All-star’. Too many folks vote for All-stars based on a good half-season; I disagree with that. Kevin Correia was once an All-star for that reason; I firmly believe the game should be for the best of the best, not for whomever is having a hot eight weeks. Now, in cases where there are lots of established players vying for a few spots, early-season success should be the tiebreaker.
On to the players:
HITTERS
Batting average
The quickest way to find surprises is to open up the ‘leaderboard’ page – and right away we see surprises galore. The best batting average in the league belongs to Daniel Murphy – yes, THAT Daniel Murphy, last seen bashing bombs for the Mets in October. He signed with the Nationals as a free agent, and has picked up right where he left off in the fall – he’s already tied his career high for homers (14), he has 41 extra-base hits, and if the season ended today he’d be a favorite to win MVP. Murphy is a career .293 hitter and he’s 31 so I don’t think this is a ‘new level’ for him, just a career year.
His teammate, catcher Wilson Ramos, is even more of a surprise – after batting .229 in 2015, Ramos is #2 in the NL with a .335 batting average. Like Murphy, he’s hitting for power as well – 16 doubles and 13 homers almost match his totals from all of 2015. He’s also walking a lot more and striking out a lot less…so this may well be some real improvement. He won’t hit .335, but if he hits .290 with power and walks he’s a very valuable player.
Speaking of catchers, Miami’s JT Realmuto checks in at #5 with a .320 batting average. Realmuto is only in his second year, but he never hit for this kind of average in the minors…on the other hand, he showed a lot of development in 2014 before essentially skipping AAA to jump to the majors. He doesn’t walk much or have a lot of pop, but much like Ramos if he can hit .290 with decent contact he’s very valuable to any team at catcher.
Miami actually has four players in the top 13 in batting average – #11 Christian Yelich has been a top prospect since he was a rookie in 2013, so it’s easy to forget that a.) he’s still only 24, and b.) he actually broke out last year, hitting .300. His ascent isn’t a surprise by itself. No, the surprise is ANY team having four regulars hitting over .305 this late. His teammate Marcell Ozuna had a disappointing sophomore campaign in 2015 that left his prospect status in doubt – but he’s broken out in a big way this season. .310 is impressive, but he also has 17 homers and is on-pace to easily set a career high in walks. He looks like the real deal. Finally, Derek Dietrich was a disappointing part-time player the past three seasons in Miami – but has received more playing time in 2016 and has taken advantage of it to the tune of a .307 average, .401 on-base%. I think he’s more likely than any of the above Marlins to seriously regress, but he’s established himself as a major-league-caliber hitter.
Finally, we can’t talk about surprising averages without mentioning Cardinal SS Aledmys Diaz. Forced into the lineup due to Jhonny Peralta’s injury, Diaz took the league by storm in April, hitting .423 with huge power. He cooled off considerably in May, but hit quite well in June – and his overall power and walk numbers indicate to me that he might be the real deal. At this point he’s hitting .319 with 22 doubles, 12 homers, and a .382 on-base% – those are good numbers at any position; at shortstop they are hall-of-fame worthy. Time will tell if he’s really this good, but early indications are that the Cardinals have found yet another ‘diamond in the rough’.
HOME RUNS
Adam Duvall of the Reds was leading the NL in homers for a while, and he’s still third with 22 (only three behind the league leader). The power is real – he’s hit 30+ in the minors twice – but everything else about him screams ‘fluke’. He doesn’t walk, strikes out too much, is only hitting .249, and he’s already 27. He has a long minor-league track record that shows the same pattern. Great story, but he’s unlikely to become any kind of star.
Trevor Story had the right last name early on – he hit SEVEN homers in his first six major-league games! He got off to such a hot start that the team released Jose Reyes, handing the full-time job to Story. Here’s the problem: he hasn’t been that good since April. He hit 10 homers that month, with a .696 slugging% in 102 at-bats…he has nine homers in 235 ABs since then. He’s a Rockie, so you have to factor in Coors Field as well – on the road, he’s hitting just .235. The minors tell a similar story – good pop, weak plate discipline, low average. He’s major-league-caliber even if he hits .240 because of his position and the power…but this is NOT the second coming of Troy Tulowitzki.
Wil Myers was THE big prospect in the game in 2013 – he was a huge disappointment for San Diego the last two seasons, but it looks like the wait is paying off. Myers is 8th in the league with 19 homers, which already has blown away his career high. He also is hitting .295, and doing it in a home park (PETCO) that suppresses both power and average. Keep an eye on him!
Finally, he only has 14 homers but I have to mention Zack Cozart here. Honestly, I thought he might have been out of the league – he was that bad of a hitter the past few seasons (.221 in 2014, .258 in 2015, not much power, few walks). He lost the starting job last season so I forgot about him – but this year, Cozart already has the 14 homers, 22 doubles, and a .271 average. He’s an excellent defender by most observations…so at this level of offense, he’s extremely valuable. Great comeback season for Cozart.
PITCHERS
Note: I’m only looking at starters. One bad outing can ruin a reliever’s ERA; Relievers tend to vary wildly year to year; and they just don’t throw enough innings to be in the same conversation with the starters.
The leaderboard for pitching is a lot less surprising than the batting leaders – the ERA leaders are Kershaw, Bumgarner, Arrieta, Syndergaard, Cueto – guys you’d mostly expect to be there.
(Quick aside – Cueto deserves huge credit for turning things around after a poor end to 2015 – not only is he #5 in ERA, he leads the NL in innings! Also, Arrieta is showing signs of trouble – his ERA is up over 2.3, and he’s issued 42 walks in 108 innings. Worth watching)
The first major surprise is Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, #6 in ERA. Two things to note here – he’s allowed eight UNEARNED runs, so the ERA is a bit deceiving. Also, he’s allowed only 75 hits in 96 innings, despite striking out less than a batter per inning. He’s a good pitcher who is still improving – but I don’t think he’s quite THIS good.
San Diego’s Drew Pomeranz is also a big surprise, #8 in the league with a 2.65 ERA. He’s mostly been a reliever in the past, but San Diego gave him a rotation slot and he’s run with it – 109 K’s, only 65 hits in 95 innings. Now, as with Hendricks above, the hit rate is a bit fluky, AND we have to allow for his home park (although his home/road splits are nonexistent, indicating he’s this good everywhere so far). He has great stuff, so while I don’t think he’s really elite level, he could be a really good #2 starter.
#13 in ERA is everyone’s favorite 43-year-old, Bartolo Colon. Not only is the old guy 13th in ERA, he hit his first homer this year! He amazes me because he can barely break 90MPH with his fastball – yet he throws that pitch 90% of the time…and still gets outs. He has only struck out 63 in 94 innings – but he’s also only walked 17. He’s sure to regress some, but what a late-career resurgence he’s had!
Finally, anytime a Rockies starter makes the leaderboard they deserve a mention. At present, Tyler Chatwood is 17th in the league with a 3.08 ERA – and in a way, he’s been even better than that. His home/road splits are absolutely absurd – 5.10 home ERA in 42.1 innings; 1.30 ERA in 48.1 road innings. Now, he’s obviously not THAT good away from Coors Field – but that’s a pretty strong indication that the Rockies may have a good pitcher here. Chatwood put up a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts in 2013, before missing most of the last two seasons with injuries. You always have to grade Rockie pitchers on a curve – and I am not keen on his low strikeout numbers – but the young man deserves huge credit for what he’s done so far this season.
Later in the week, we will look at the disappointing players around the NL.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.
