Today we conclude our preview of major league baseball by looking at the Central divisions – both of which have been mediocre in recent seasons. Please click here for the preview of the West divisions, and here for the East previews. Today we’ll start with the AL.
AL CENTRAL
Minnesota Twins 2009 record: 87-76 (1st in division)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 88-93 wins
Key Additions: 2B Orlando Hudson, SS JJ Hardy, DH/1B Jim Thome
Key Losses: SS Orlando Cabrera, SP C Mike Redmond, RP Joe Nathan (surgery, out for season)
The Eye’s Take: The Twins open their new stadium this spring, and they celebrated already by signing Joe Mauer to an 8-year, $184 million extension – by far the largest contract ever awarded by the Twins. It’s a sign of how good Mauer is, of course, and being a native Minnesotan played a role – but more than anything it showed that the Twins are finally willing to spend some of owner Carl Pohlad’s money to win now. The Twins have been competitive for years following the Indians/Marlins model of draft, then trade before players get expensive…and that works, but being able to keep the truly great players makes life a lot easier. Having said that, they overpaid…Mauer will eventually either break down or be forced to move from catcher, either of which will severely limit his value. For now, though, he sets the Twins apart in the mediocre AL Central. The rest of the offense isn’t bad, and their new middle infield combo (Hudson and Hardy) will shore up the defense and add some pop. The rotation actually looks pretty solid, and might be more than that if Francisco Liriano returns to his pre-surgery form. As with so many teams, the question is the bullpen – with their closer Joe Nathan gone for the year, there’s no sure bet in the pen. I expect the Twins to deal with this via trade if necessary…but even with their bullpen woes, the Twins have to be the favorites in the division, almost by default. I think only the White Sox will give them a run, but 85-90 wins will get the Twins another division crown in 2010.
Detroit Tigers
2009 record: 86-77
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 78-84 wins
Key Additions: SP Max Scherzer, RP Jose Valverde, RP Phil Coke, LF Johnny Damon, CF Austin Jackson
Key Losses: SP Jarrod Washburn, 2B Placido Polanco, RP Fernando Rodney, CF Curtis Granderson, 1B Aubrey Huff
The Eye’s Take: VERY tough team to forecast, because of the turnover and youth they’ve brought in. Austin Jackson has a lot of potential – but as a rookie, with a history of poor plate discipline, is he really ready to be a leadoff man? Max Scherzer showed wondrous potential in Arizona – can he put it all together? Will Rick Porcello continue to ascend to ace status, or will he suffer a setback? One thing to keep in mind: the Tigers were VERY lucky in 2009, winning 86 games and tying the Twins despite actually being outscored by two runs on the season. The Tigers need to improve their net runs (runs scored – runs against) by at least 50-60 to expect to contend…and while I do see improvement, I don’t see that much improvement. The Granderson trade probably will work for the Tigers long-term, but in 2010 it almost certainly hurt the team. There’s still a nice core of talent here with Cabrera, Ordonez, and Verlander, plus the youth…but there are still too many holes at the bottom of the order and at the bottom of the rotation. Like last year, I think this is fundamentally a .500 club, so let’s say 79-83 wins for the Tigers – but if the youth comes together they could surprise.
Chicago White Sox
2009 record: 79-83
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 70-85 wins (I foresaw a wide range of possibilities)
Key Additions: OF Andruw Jones, RP JJ Putz, 3B Mark Teahen, OF Juan Pierre
Key Losses: Of Jermaine Dye, RP Octavio Dotel, OF Scott Podsednik
The Eye’s Take: The more I study this roster, the more I think the Sox are a good sleeper bet in the AL Central. They identified their weakest areas – CF, 3B, 2B – and upgraded at all of them with Pierre, Teahen and moving Beckham to 2B. They won’t be as powerful in 2010 without Dye and Thome, but they should play better defense and get on base more often – no offense has been as dependent on the home run the last few years than the White Sox. The biggest move, however, is a move they made late last season – the trade for Jake Peavy. This spring Peavy looks good, and if he’s 100% healthy this is a rotation to be feared – Buehrle, Danks, and Floyd round out a very fine top-4. The bullpen should be solid with Putz and Jenks as the mainstays. One of the keys for this team will be Carlos Quentin. In 2008 he was a revelation, an MVP candidate; in 2009 he was injured and a liability. If he even approaches 2008 form this team will contend. I think he will rebound, the Sox will be winners, but not quite enough offense to overcome the Twins. Call it 85-88 wins and a close second for the Sox, but probable contention all season.
Cleveland Indians
2009 record: 65-97 (T-4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 75-80 wins (probably my best pick, as many were calling the Indians division favorites)
Key Additions: 1B/DH Russell Branyan
Key Losses: none
The Eye’s Take: As expected, pitching was a BIG problem in Cleveland – only Baltimore allowed more runs in the AL. The trade of Cliff Lee clearly signals at least a partial rebuild – there is no hope of contention this season, despite a few good pieces on offense. Shin-Soo Choo finally broke out, Travis Hafner rebounded a little, and Asdrubal Cabrera established himself as a top SS – but the rest of the offense was average at best. Even if Grady Sizemore bounces back, this isn’t a great offense, the bottom third of the order is totally unproven. The bad news? The rotation is even MORE unproven, and the bullpen is in chaos. The staff ace is Jake Westbrook, who hasn’t pitched since 2008. #2 is Fausto Carmona, who had an ERA of 6.32 a season ago. There IS potential here, but no way does it all come together this season. They are not a 65-win team, they have more talent than that, but I think 80 wins is the absolute ceiling. Let’s say 72-76 wins for the Tribe.
Kansas City Royals
2009 record: 65-97 (T-4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 75 wins
Key Additions: 3B Josh Fields, 2B Chris Getz, C Jason Kendall, OF Rick Ankiel
Key Losses: C Miguel Olivo, 3B Mark Teahen, DH Mike Jacobs, CF Coco Crisp
The Eye’s Take: The only difference between the Pirates and Royals is that the Royals have a true superstar in Zack Grienke, and more above average talent at the major-league level. That said, the results will be eerily similar in KC and Pittsburgh, as neither has anywhere near a complete team. Grienke is a stud, perhaps the most fun pitcher to watch in the game with his wide variety of pitches. Gil Meche had a down year but is still a decent pitcher, and overall the rotation is ok. Closer Joakim Soria is awesome, almost at the Mariano Rivera level – frankly, he’s wasted on a team like this and should be traded. Offensively, Billy Butler can hit (but can’t field), Alberto Callaspo has proven he is about a .300 hitter…and after that, it’s frankly a lot of junk. Alex Gordon never has lived up to his promise, and now he’s hurt again. This team is going nowhere mighty fast, and it will be another long year in KC. 68-72 wins, and that many only because Grienke will keep them in almost all of his starts – if he’s hurt or traded, they will lose 100 games.
NL CENTRAL
St. Louis Cardinals (1st)
2009 record: 91-71
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 84-88 wins
Key Additions: 2B Felipe Lopez, SP Brad Penny
Key Losses: OF Rick Ankiel, SP John Smoltz, SP Joel Piniero, 3B Troy Glaus, 3B Mark DeRosa
The Eye’s Take: I’ve consistently underestimated the Cardinals over the past 10 years, and it’s time I gave the team their due. They always seem to perform greater than the sum of their parts – part of that is good front-office work, but a major part is manager Tony LaRussa. In LaRussa’s 14 seasons at the helm, the Cards have made eight playoff appearances and finished above .500 11 times. They are the favorites in 2010, but that’s mainly because the division is really down – the Cards have more star power than any other Central team, but they also have no depth at all. They are VERY reliant on their top-2 starters, Carpenter and Wainwright, to stay healthy, as the rest of the rotation is no better than average. At bat, they are equally reliant on Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday to shoulder the load. If any of those four suffers a serious injury, it will be a struggle all season for the Cards. There is some young hitting talent that could step forward, and I’m certainly not betting AGAINST the Cards – but their position atop the division is perilous at best. Call it 85-89 wins and the division title for the Cards, almost by default.
Chicago Cubs
2009 record: 83-78 (2nd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 92-96 wins
Key Additions: OF Marlon Byrd, SP Carlos Silva
Key Losses: SP Rich Harden, RP Kevin Gregg, OF Milton Bradley
The Eye’s Take: Offense was the problem in Chicago last season – they allowed almost exactly the same number of runs in 2009 as 2008, but they scored almost 150 less runs in 2009. Only Derrek Lee performed above expectations – literally every other hitter either suffered injury or subpar effectiveness. The worst were Geovanny Soto, who suffered the dreaded ‘sophomore slump’, and Milton Bradley, who moped his way right out of town after his lousy Cub performance. Alfonso Soriano continued to underperform his contract as well. The good news is that the offense will almost certainly improve somewhat by default – Soto in particular should bounce back, and Ramirez will be healthier. The bad news is the likely decline on the mound, as Ted Lilly will miss at least the first 2-3 weeks of the season and Rich Harden is gone. Carlos Zambrano struggled last season, and has had a rough spring. The bullpen isn’t that great, either – unless the Cards slip up due to injury, I don’t see the Cubs as a threat this time. Call it 80-84 wins for the Cubbies.
Milwaukee Brewers
2009 record: 80-82 (3rd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 80-85 wins
Key Additions: SP Doug Davis, SP Randy Wolf, RP LaTroy Hawkins, SS (rookie) Alcides Escobar
Key Losses: CF Mike Cameron, SP Braden Looper, SS JJ Hardy, 2B Felipe Lopez, C Jason Kendall
The Eye’s Take: Last season the Brewers’ pitching simply imploded – they allowed 818 runs, only the Nationals allowed more. Milwaukee added free agent starters Davis and Wolf to address that problem, and while they aren’t ace material, they are a major upgrade on this team. The bullpen is solid, although you have to think ageless Trevor Hoffman will hit a wall soon. On offense, much like St. Louis the team is very dependent on their two stars, Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun – after them, it’s a middling attack at best. They have hope for 2011 with Escobar developing and 3B prospect Mat Gamel, but Gamel will miss much of 2010 with injury. Overall this team should be improved, but not enough to make the postseason – and there is limited depth here as well. Let’s call it 81-85 wins for the Brewers, but less if they decide to trade Fielder.
Cincinnati Reds
2009 record: 78-84
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 75-80 wins
Key Additions: SS Orlando Cabrera, 2B Aaron Miles, SP Aroldis Chapman (Cuba)
Key Losses: OF Willy Taveras
The Eye’s Take: If any team is going to emerge from the pack to surprise in the Central, my pick is the Reds – they have a young but talented lineup, the makings of a good rotation (if Aaron Harang is back), and a deep, experienced bullpen. Aroldis Chapman can already throw 100 MPH, and could be a great midseason addition to the rotation. Adding Cabrera shores up their middle-infield defense, and CF Drew Stubbs is already a plus defender and should develop with the bat as the year goes on. The keys are the health of the rotation and the development of Stubbs and Jay Bruce – if both of these hot young prospects parlay their potential into results, the Reds will be a very dangerous team. There will likely be a ton of teams in the Central around 82 wins, and I put the Reds in that group – but I think they are the best of the non-Cardinal group, and have a chance to be the division’s dominant team for the next few seasons. 82-87 wins for the Reds in 2010.
Houston Astros
2009 record: 74-88
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 68-73 wins
Key Additions: RP Brandon Lyon, 3B Pedro Feliz, SP Brett Myers
Key Losses: SS Miguel Tejada, RP Doug Brocail, RP Jose Valverde, RP LaTroy Hawkins
The Eye’s Take: I cannot figure out what the Astros are doing – they continue to make moves like they are a contender, and they simply do not have the talent to think about contending. Their offense was among the worst in the game a year ago – yet they add Pedro Feliz and think that’s an upgrade?? With Lance Berkman out for at least a few weeks, they will struggle mightily to score runs again. The pitching is decent at the top with Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez, but the rest of the rotation is shaky and the bullpen was decimated by free agency. The farm system is a mess, the lineup is either aging or ineffective depending on the position…this team needs to totally rebuild, and the longer they wait the worse the situation will be. The glory days are gone, 70 wins would be a good season for this group – call it 68-72 wins in Houston.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2009 record: 62-99
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 70-75 wins UNLESS McLouth was traded – then under 67.
Key Additions: RP Octavio Dotel, 2B Akinori Iwamura, IF Bobby Crosby, OF Ryan Church, RP Brendan Donnelly
Key Losses: RP Matt Capps, OF Brandon Moss
The Eye’s Take: Definitely a transition period, as the Buccos have traded away all of their useful veteran parts. The lineup is almost totally turned over from a year ago – only C Ryan Doumit and 3B Andy LaRoche remain. Now, we have to be patient and see if the parts acquired in trade have the necessary talent to improve this club. Andrew McCutchen is the real deal and worth watching in CF, and by midseason 3B Pedro Alvarez will almost certainly arrive as well. Can Garrett Jones follow up his surprising rookie campaign, or will he regress? Overall the offense will almost certainly be improved, the addition of Iwamura adds on-base potential at the top of the order and I expect Milledge and Doumit to have strong 2010 campaigns. There are still too many holes and not enough pop to call this a GOOD offense, but it shouldn’t be as terrible as 2009.
On the mound, the jury is still out. We know that Duke and Maholm are inning-eating southpaws, but neither will anchor a staff. Ross Ohlendorf showed flashes of greatness, can he take the next step? Can Charlie Morton harness his awesome stuff? We just don’t know, but there will be disappointments in that group. The bullpen has been totally revamped, and should be improved (at least until the trade deadline). Overall the team should be better – not 81-win better, but 100 losses should be off the table as long as the pitching is decent. Let’s say 69-73 wins for the Buccos, but the development of some of the young players is far more important than the win total – in fact I hope I’m high on the wins, getting top draft picks is far more important than six or eight additional wins at this stage in the team’s development.
Next week we’ll preview the NHL playoffs, with a prediction for all eight opening round series. Expect that column on Tuesday or Wednesday, as the matchups will not be set until late Sunday night. Enjoy the baseball this week, the surest sign that spring is here!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
