Just before he suspended his presidential campaign, Rick Perry had the highest odds — 60% — to drop out first, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market, a game created by the company Pivit.
Republican presidential candidate Lindsey Graham has taken up Perry’s mantle, according to the Political Prediction Market, which sets the odds at 33% that Graham will suspend his 2016 campaign by Nov. 1.
After Graham, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum are in a three-way tie, each with their odds at 30%.
The Political Prediction Market is a live online prediction market administered by Pivit that factors polls and other factors, including input from online players. It will change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins an election. Players can forecast when the odds will change and compete to the top of the leader board.
Opposite the odds on Graham is a Ben Carson surge. His odds to win the GOP nomination have increased from 1% to 16% since the Fox News debate. The retired neurosurgeon is now second to GOP front-runner Donald Trump, who is at 17%
Since the Fox News debate, the odds are as follows:
Ben Carson: up by 15% (1% to 16%)
Donald Trump: up by 17% (7% to 24%)
Jeb Bush: down by 16% (31% to 15%)
Scott Walker: down by 26% (32% to 6%)
Don’t confuse odds in the prediction market with support from voters in the polls. In the latest national CBS News/New York Times survey, Carson is polling at 23% with Republican voters. Donald Trump had the most support at 27% in that poll. In the latest CNN/ORC survey, which was released last week, Carson had 19% support among Republicans, behind Trump’s 32% support.
