We’ve previewed the teams I expect to finish 30-25, 24-17, and 16-9 overall in 2015 – now we get to the favorites, the teams I expect to be the heavyweights this summer. There are two ‘newcomer’ surprises here, so let’s get to the first one:
8.) Cleveland Indians (85-77, 3rd in AL Central, 12th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: NONE
Key Additions: OF Brandon Moss
Outlook: No one is talking about Cleveland this spring, but I like their chances to win the Central. They are relatively young (seven of nine batters and the entire rotation are under 30), they have stars (Corey Kluber won the Cy Young last year, and Michael Brantly has quietly become one of the AL’s top hitters), and they have fewer weaknesses than any other team in the division.
On offense, the addition of Moss bolsters a lineup that already had significant pop. Kipnis and Santana had down seasons in 2014, I expect both to rebound this year – and if they do, only 22-year-old shortstop Jose Ramirez and DH Nick Swisher project as below-average hitters. The team has some speed, they take walks, they should have four or five 20+ homer guys…there’s a lot to like.
On the hill, Kluber is backed by Carlos Carrasco (who also broke out in 2014), Trevor Bauer, TJ House, and Zach McAllister. Even assuming that Kluber drops back to earth a bit, Bauer and House can each be expected to improve at age 24 – and the subtraction of Justin Masterson (5.51 ERA last year for the Tribe) will help the team ERA as well. The bullpen returns a potent top-four, as well as hard-throwing lefties Nick Hagedone and Kyle Crockett. They may not match the Royals’ top-3, but I believe they offer more depth and matchup potential than KC’s pen.
There’s some risk here, and this division is really too close to call – but I think Cleveland is well-positioned to compete in the Central for the next 2-4 years. I foresee the division leaders beating each other up all summer, which will tend to keep overall win totals down – call it 86-89 wins for the Indians.
Reasons they could be worse: Kluber REALLY regresses, Kipnis can’t find his form, and one of the starting pitchers gets hurt. There’s little margin for error among any of the Central teams.
Reasons they could be better: The offense ends up being top-3 in the league, Kluber proves he’s not a fluke, and both House and Bauer find the next level. This team has 95-win potential if the pieces all fall into place.
Chances to contend: I’m saying 90% chance to contend, 60% to win the division.
7.) Chicago Cubs (73-89, 5th in NL Central, T-22nd in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: RF Nate Schierholtz, SP Edwin Jackson, 3B Luis Valbuena
Key Additions: 3B Kris Bryant (once they bring him up), SP Jon Lester, CF Dexter Fowler, C Miguel Montero, SP Jasom Hammel (re-signed after being traded last season)
Outlook: Get ready, because this is just the beginning of the Cubs’ rise to power. Set aside the major-league roster, which has plenty of talent – the Cubs also boast baseball’s top farm system (with four of the top 20 prospects in the game, according to most experts). They also have the financial muscle and flexibility (thanks to trades and patience, even after signing Lester they are middle-of-the-road in payroll, with the ability to be top-3 eventually) to make big, splashy moves via trade or free agency over the next several seasons.
But forget about the future – I’m picking the Cubs to win now because they have massively upgraded the weaknesses on last year’s roster. They got 27 HORRID (6.33 ERA) starts from Edwin Jackson – Lester should give them 70 additional innings with half the ERA. Nate Schierholtz hit .192 with almost no power (six HR) as their right fielder – prospect Jorge Soler hit five HR in less than a month, and he should be a massive upgrade in 2015. Alcantara hit .205 in center field – Fowler gives the team an ideal leadoff man (.375 on-base% last season). Finally, Bryant is just a rookie – but he’s as close to ‘can’t miss’ as they come. Expect 25-30 HRs and solid contact ability once he arrives in mid-April.
They’ve made enough change for me to add 10-12 wins right off the top – but with the additional prospects on the way, plus the ability to swing a major deal if needed, I think Chicago is in prime position to add during the season in ways most franchises can only dream of. If they manage to stay at or above .500 early on, watch out in the second half – they could be the most talented lineup in the NL by the end of the season. I’m predicting 86-91 wins and the top wildcard for the Cubs in 2015.
Reasons they could be worse: Pitching. Lester is an ace, but there are a lot of questions throughout the rest of the rotation. The bullpen is solid but not outstanding. If Lester goes down, that will put them in a spot for sure.
Reasons they could be better: Pure, raw potential. The Cubs are LOADED with it. If even half their hitting prospects work out, they are primed to be THE force in the NL Central for the next 5+ years…and they can move hitters for other needs at any time with their depth.
Chances to contend: A team this young has a wide range of outcomes – they could potentially take another season to truly gel at the major league level – but I’m saying 35% chance of division contention, 80% chance of wildcard contention and a 65% chance of snagging a wildcard.
6.) LA Angels (98-64, 1st in AL West, 1st in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: 2B Howie Kendrick, RP Jason Grilli, RP Kevin Jepsen
Key Additions: OF/DH Matt Joyce, 2B Johnny Giavotella
Outlook: The Angels surprised almost everyone by achieving the best record in baseball last summer, but I see reasons for concern. #1 the lineup is old – only three projected regulars are under 30. #2 the loss of Kendrick is a concern – he never became a star, but he was an above-average performer and Giavotella has never proven he can hit at the major league level. #3 the rotation is good but thin – Shoemaker and Richards came out of nowhere a season ago before both suffered late-season injuries, and without those two the team just wasn’t the same. The Angels need their young stud pitchers to make 30+ starts each.
On the plus side, the offense had the best player in baseball (Mike Trout – STILL only 23 years old!!) and above-average performance from every other regular. That’s a winning combo, and I project this offense to again be stout, albeit not the #1 run-scoring team in the AL again.
The bullpen is solid – they got great work from Street & Smith a year ago and both should be quite effective again. They lost Grilli and set-up man Kevin Jepsen, but there’s enough depth to move on without much difficulty. Overall I cannot envision them being the best team in MLB this year, but they should avoid a major collapse…and be right in the thick of the AL West race. I’m calling for 89-92 wins and the top AL wildcard for the Angels.
Reasons they could be worse: Age-related decline. The offense can only go down from last season, and I’m concerned about Pujols and Hamilton. If Trout were to get hurt, it would devastate this team as well.
Reasons they could be better: If the pitching holds up and Trout has yet another MVP-caliber season, this could be a 95 win team.
Chances to contend: I think they have a 90% chance to contend for both the division and the wildcard, and an 80% chance of snagging one or the other. They and the Mariners appear to be the class of this division now.
5.) Baltimore Orioles (96-66, 1st in AL East, T-2nd in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: RF/DH Nelson Cruz, RF Nick Markakis, RP Andrew Miller
Key Addtions: RF Travis Snider
Outlook: At first glance, it seems improbable that I’d pick the Orioles to repeat. They weren’t great offensively a year ago, their top hitter departed for Seattle, and other than Snider they didn’t bring in ANYONE via trade or free agency. However, the Orioles have three BIG things going for them: the return of Manny Machado/Matt Wieters, the best pitching staff in the division, and manager Buck Showalter.
Offensively, this is not a GREAT team – and losing Cruz will hurt – but don’t underestimate getting back Wieters and Machado. Wieters was looking like an all-star before he was hurt, and the replacements at catcher were abysmal. Machado is still only 22, and was well on his way to a 20-HR season before his injury. Wieters isn’t quite ready yet but he should be back in April, while Machado looks to be 100%. Add in the expected improvement from Chris Davis, my belief that Snider > Markakis, and the consistency of Adam Jones (no walks, but plenty of pop) and I see this as an above-average offense in 2015 – possibly even better than last season.
The pitching was THE story a season ago, even though Cruz got all the attention. Baltimore had the third-best ERA last year, and they did it without a true ace. They have a rotation that runs 6-deep, and a very strong bullpen. What’s more, they have the best manager in the game at the helm – in most cases I don’t see the manager as a huge factor, but Showalter’s track record speaks for itself. Everywhere he’s been, he has made the team better…he’s either been extremely lucky, or he’s darn good at what he does. I opt for the latter.
This division is very messy – I don’t see a great team here at all, but I’ll take Showalter + deep pitching and figure the offense will score enough to make it work. 90-92 wins and the AL East crown for the O’s.
Reasons they could be worse: I’m banking on Wieters and Davis to improve, and Snider to show that his late-2014 surge was real. If any of those players fails, the offense could really struggle. The lack of a true ace could catch up with them if any of their starters struggles.
Reasons they could be better: This is not a young roster, and I could see management making a ‘big splash’ trade to upgrade either 2B or the rotation. That, plus a real breakout from Wieters or Machado, could push this team towards 95 wins.
Chances to contend: I’m saying 80% to contend and 75% to win the division. They should also be in the wildcard chase if there’s a divisional surprise…they ARE a flawed team so it’s not a given that they can win 90+.
4.) Pittsburgh Pirates (88-74, 2nd in NL Central, T-8th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: C Russell Martin, 1B Ike Davis, 1B Gaby Sanchez, OF Travis Snider, SP Edinson Volquez, RP Justin Wilson
Key Additions: C Francisco Cervelli, RP Antonio Bastardo, SP AJ Burnett, 1B Corey Hart, IF Jung Ho Kang
Outlook: By the numbers, the Bucs were the best team in the division last season – they had a much better run differential than the Cardinals – and they are still VERY young. The entire offense is in their ‘prime’ years except for Gregory Polanco (23) and platoon 1B Hart (33). One can expect decline at catcher (Martin had a career year in 2014), 3B (was Harrison a fluke?) and possibly 2B…but one can also reasonably project improvement at 1B (Alvarez is a good bounce-back candidate without his 3B struggles on his mind), SS (Mercer is still improving), LF (Marte broke out in the second half) and RF (I expect Polanco to make a big step forward in 2015). In addition, Kang is a ‘wildcard’ with TONS of upside – he dominated in Korea and has legit 25-30 HR power. If he can make enough contact, he could become a star. The team will work him in slowly in 2015, but look for him to be a weapon off the bench. This was a top-4 offense a season ago and they could make a run at #1 this season – I honestly see no true weaknesses on offense.
If the Bucs fail in 2015, I believe it will be because of their pitching. They brought back AJ Burnett to replace Edinson Volquez, but given the performance Volquez gave the team that’s likely to be at least a slight downgrade. How you feel about this rotation depends on how much you think Gerrit Cole can improve, how much you trust Francisco Liriano, and whether you think the likes of Charlie Morton/Jeff Locke/Vance Worley are replacement-level fodder or have #3 potential. I no longer trust Locke and think that Worley takes that slot sooner rather than later. Morton needs to make it work this year or he’s a lost cause…but I believe in Liriano AND Cole. I think Cole is poised for a big-time breakout.
The bullpen added lefty Bastardo to replace Wilson – it’s a solid group, if a little thin after the top four. There IS help due to arrive soon, for the rotation and/or the pen – prospects Nick Kingham and Jameson Taillon should be ready by midseason.
With the decline of the Cards and the pending rise of the Cubs, I believe this HAS to be Pittsburgh’s year. They won’t have the talent or the cash to take on Chicago much longer…they want to avoid that coin-flip wildcard game, and I think this is the year they do it. I’m saying 92-94 wins and the Central crown for the Buccos.
Reasons they could be worse: Alvarez is so crucial to this offense – at his best, he’s the big-time power threat to complete the top offense in MLB. At his worst, he’s an out machine at a premium power position. If he struggles, it will weigh down the offense. The rotation is still the most questionable part of the team, and decline from any of the top-3 starters could mean big trouble.
Reasons they could be better: The offense meets its potential, the bullpen comes together to become elite as well, and Cole is in the mix for the Cy Young Award. If all that happens this team could push 100 wins.
Chances to contend: This is hands-down the best division in baseball – every team can legitimately claim a chance at .500 or better – so I suspect that will keep overall win totals down. I give Pittsburgh a 90% chance of contention and 65% chance of winning the division. The wildcard should be in play if they miss out on the division.
3.) Seattle Mariners (87-75, 3rd in AL West, 11th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: 1B Corey Hart, 1B Justin Smoak, OF Michael Saunders, SP Chris Young
Key Additions: DH Nelson Cruz, RF Seth Smith, SP JA Happ
Outlook: the Mariners made great strides a year ago, jumping from 71 to 87 wins – all because their pitching vastly improved. They allowed exactly 200 fewer runs in 2014 than in 2013 – an amazing improvement! They are likely to give some of that back this season, but they added Cruz and Smith in the hopes of making a big jump on the offensive side. Trading Saunders for Happ strikes me as a puzzling move – he was great in 2014, and Happ is no great shakes – but there are reasons for optimism at bat.
They have the game’s top 2B in Cano, a good young 3B in Seager, and should get above-average performance from Cruz (albeit less than what he did for the O’s), LF, and 1B. They got 22 HRs from young catcher Mike Zunino, but a terrible batting average – I look for him to improve as well – and a full season of Austin Jackson in CF should help also. This is not a great offense by any means – even allowing for the pitcher-friendly park – but they should be around league-average in 2015.
The pitching staff starts with the AL’s best, ‘King’ Felix Hernandez. He’s been amazing for the past seven seasons yet is SILL only 29 years old! Obviously, he has to continue to perform at a high level for this team to win. Iwakuma, Paxton, Happ and young Tijuan Walker round out a strong rotation. The bullpen is also strong and 5-deep – if Fernando Rodney starts to show his age (38), there are plenty of options behind him.
The AL West is nowhere deep as it once was…the A’s will certainly win less games, and it’s likely the Angels will as well. The Mariners appear to be the team best positioned to take up the slack – if the offense can find just one more notch and Hernandez stays healthy, I’m calling for 92-95 wins and the AL West crown for Seattle.
Reasons they could be worse: First, any injury to Hernandez or Cano would be a HUGE blow. Second, if any of the big-time hitters decline or regress, they may not score enough runs to win 90+.
Reasons they could be better: I don’t see this roster as a 95-100 win monster, there’s not enough offense. Perhaps if Seager breaks out and Cruz repeats his 2014 form they could win more…but that’s exceedingly unlikely.
Chances to contend: I see this as a 2-team race and I think Seattle has a 95% chance to contend to the end for both the division and the wildcard. Call it 65% to actually win the divison.
2.) LA Dodgers (94-68, 1st in NL West, 4th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: CF Matt Kemp, SS Hanley Ramirez, 2B Dee Gordon, SP Josh Beckett, SP Dan Haren
Key Additions: SP Brandon McCarthy, SP Brett Anderson, SS Jimmy Rollins, 2B Howie Kendrick, C Yasmandi Grandal, RP Juan Nicasio, RP Joel Peralta
Outlook: Oodles of cash and smart management – that’s almost always a winning combo in sports, and the Dodgers appear to me to be set up for the long haul. The cash is a given with their lucrative TV contract – but by luring Andrew Friedman from Tampa, they now have the innovative 21st-century leadership to keep them on top. The moves they made appear on the surface to have weakened them – Kemp and Ramirez were huge parts of their offense – but they’ve significantly strengthened their defense while ‘selling high’ on both players.
There’s no question that they will miss the offense of Ramirez/Kemp, but the addition of Grandal and Kendrick will soften the blow. Catcher was an offensive ‘black hole’ for LA last year, and Grandal should be well above-average for them. Kendrick is a significant upgrade at 2B, and while it’s unlikely that Rollins will out-hit Ramirez, his defense will be far superior. This team still has star-caliber bats in Puig and Gonzalez – so while I doubt they will be #1 in offense again, I expect they will remain in the top three or four.
The benefits of their overhaul should show on the mound – the dominance of Kershaw and Grienke is a given at this point, and Ryu has also been excellent…but McCarthy and Anderson are very savvy moves, especially in a pitcher’s park with an improved defense. The team also made moves to overhaul their biggest weakness – a shoddy bullpen. Peralta and Nicasio are not elite, but they are almost certainly an improvement on Jaime Wright and Brian Wilson. The 9th inning is completely covered, as Kenley Janssen is one of the best.
I don’t think this team is the offensive juggernaut of 2014, but I think that they have a chance to be a more complete TEAM – and a very difficult short-series opponent in October. I’m predicting 94-96 wins and the NL West crown for the Dodgers.
Reasons they could be worse: Injury to Kershaw or Grienke would hurt – injury to Gonzalez or Puig would also be difficult. Rollins has been in decline; if he cannot perform adequately then SS becomes a problem. Finally, the bullpen HAS to improve if this team wants to become a postseason factor.
Reasons they could be better: Hard to go up from here.
Chances to contend: VERY close to 100% – it would take a chain of injuries for this team to win less than 85 games. 85% chance they win the division.
1.) Washington Nationals (96-66, 1st in NL East, T-2nd in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: 1B Adam LaRoche, RP Tyler Clippard, RP Rafael Soriano
Key Addtions: 2B/SS Yunel Escobar, SP Max Scherzer, RP Casey Janssen
Outlook: We’ll get to the offense in a minute…but let this sink in: thanks to the signing of Scherzer, the Nationals’ SIXTH starter (Tanner Roark), the one bumped from the rotation, threw 198 innings with a 2.85 ERA last year. Yes, Roark, who would be a #1 on several MLB clubs and would likely make the rotation of EVERY other MLB club, has to bide his time here. Just look at the talent: Scherzer, Strasburg, Zimmermann, Fister, Gonzalez. They are all talented and durable, with little injury history. The fact is, this is clearly the best rotation in MLB and has a chance to be among the best in HISTORY – and if they have a man go down, Roark can step in with no problems.
The offense is almost as deep – they have potential stars in Rendon and Harper, an All-star in Werth, and above-average hitting at every other position except 2B (and Escobar may approach league-average there). The loss of Laroche? No problem, Ryan Zimmerman needed a slot anyway. Now, the bench is pretty thin, they are far more susceptible to injury on this side of the ball – but this is clearly an above-average offense, maybe more if Harper ever truly breaks out.
The bullpen might be the weak link, but with this rotation I expect bullpen depth to be less of an issue than for any other team – and they have good back-end relievers in Drew Storen, Aaron Barrett, and Casey Janssen.
When you factor in their weak division, the Nats are the safest bet in the league to make the postseason and a good bet to win 95+ games. I think they will win this division going away, much as they did a year ago. Their window is now – I’m predicting 97-101 wins for the Nats and the best record in baseball.
Reasons they could be worse: I believe the rotation will hold up, so if they fall it will have to be on offense. A couple of key injuries could cause them some trouble.
Reasons they could be better: If they stay healthy and Harper/Rendon break out…how good could this team be? 105 wins?
Chances to contend: 99.5%. Seriously, if they aren’t at least in the race in September I’ll be STUNNED. 90% chance to win the division.
And that wraps up the previews, let the games begin!! Next week, we will preview the NHL playoffs…hopefully the Pens will still be in the mix.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.
