Part 4 of our NFL preview focuses on the worst divisions, the AFC and NFC West. Last season these 8 teams produced only one over-.500 record, and 2009 may bring more of the same. On the other hand, the preseason Super Bowl favorite was in the AFC West last year, and the NFC West produced the actual runner-up…so you never know.
I have to comment on the overall state of these divisions – just look at the defensive rankings from last season. Aside from the Chargers, EVERY other team finished in the bottom 10 defensively. Oakland, KC, Seattle, and St. Louis were 4 of the 5 worst teams in all of football last season (Detroit being the 5th, of course)! Things can change in a hurry in the NFL, but I think these will still be the worst divisions in football in 2009.
AFC WEST
San Diego – 8-8 (1st), 439 PF (2nd), 347 PA (15th): Of the 8 west teams, San Diego is the obvious candidate to be great – 6 winnable division games, lots of talent, and a record that didn’t fit their points for/against in ‘08 – teams that outscore their opponents by 92 points typically win 11 or more games.
Defensively the team got off to a slow start in 2009 partly because all-pro Shawne Merriman was hurt in week one and missed the rest of the season. Merriman is back but is now under arrest for a domestic violence incident – and now there are reports that the Chargers may be growing tired of Merriman’s act. The defense has talent without him, but this will not be mistaken for an elite unit, especially in the secondary – they finished 31st against the pass in 2008. They drafted a defensive end in the 1st round but didn’t address the young secondary, hoping instead that experience would lead to improvement. I’m not crazy about the unit’s chances to improve – the corners are both veterans now, and I don’t see any huge improvement likely.
Offensively the team is loaded with talent, although LaDanian Tomlinson and Antonio Gates are starting to age. However, the line is solid and QB Philip Rivers is a top-tier QB. Scoring points shouldn’t be much of a problem as long as Rivers is healthy. The schedule is pretty tough, as the Bolts play the AFC North and the NFC East – but 6-0 in the division seems likely and 5-1 is almost a given. This team should win 10 games at minimum, which might mean the division is clinched by Thanksgiving. Call it 11-5 for San Diego.
Denver – 8-8 (2nd – lost tiebreak), 370 PF (16th), 448 PA (30th): Everyone’s talking about the mess on offense, and when you trade your QB and suspend your top WR that will happen – but the defense was the real problem in Denver. Only the Lions and Rams allowed more points, and the defense got worse as the season went on – they allowed 112 points in losing their last three games. The Broncos had five draft picks in the first two rounds and spent three on defense, and also added veteran defensive help (headlined by S Brian Dawkins). The defense will almost certainly improve, and in fact it has the potential to become a slightly below-average unit.
The bad news is that with Cutler gone, the offense figures to struggle in 2009. There’s no QB on the roster that will replace his production, and the team is perilously thin at WR unless Marshall makes peace with the front office. After SD it’s hard to figure who will finish where in the AFC West, but it’s a safe bet that with tough schedules, everyone north of San Diego will have losing records. Thanks mainly to Denver’s strong homefield advantage, I think they will finish second in the division, albeit with a 7-9 record.
Oakland – 5-11 (3rd), 263 PF (29th), 388 PA (24th): Now that the Lions have begun rebuilding the right way and appear to have good management, the Raiders are THE biggest joke in the NFL. Al Davis still drafts as if it’s 1975, favoring raw speed and ‘measurables’ over the actual ability to play football. QB JaMarcus Russell made some strides in 2008, but still completed only 53% of his passes – an unacceptable number in today’s NFL. I’m a believer in Darren McFadden, but teams will load up to stop the run all season on the Raiders. This team will struggle to score points again in 2009.
Defensively, the team has the best cover corner in the NFL in Nnamdi Asomugha – but the rest of the unit is a mess. They recently traded for all-pro DT Richard Seymour, and he hasn’t reported to the team! As long as Davis runs the show, any forward progress by this team will be luck. Their schedule doesn’t favor luck, look for this team to struggle mightily in 2009. I’m saying 3-13 for the Raiders.
Kansas City – 2-14 (4th), 291 PF (26th), 440 PA (29th): Believe it or not, there’s potential here for a good season. New QB Matt Cassel is a big improvement at QB, and he has a top target in WR Dwayne Bowe. RB Larry Johnson is 29 and coming off two disappointing years, but he hasn’t been used hard since 2007 and may have one big year left in him. Tony Gonzalez left, but he is about to hit a decline anyway – overall I expect big improvement on offense.
Defensively, the team made major personnel changes via free agency; however most of the imports are very long in the tooth. There are several young players on defense with potential, and the team drafted DE Tyson Jackson early in the first-round to improve the pass rush, but it remains to be seen how far the youngsters progress in 2009. My guess is they will improve somewhat but still be well below-average.
The schedule is BRUTAL early on for the Chiefs – they face .500 or better teams (in ’08 of course) 6 of the first 7 weeks – but their final five games are all against poor teams. If the Chiefs can weather the storm and get to Week 12 at 4-7 or 5-6, they will make a run at .500. Unfortunately I think the rough early schedule will doom the team to a sub-.500 record – but this is a team to watch in 2010. Tough-luck 6-10 for the Chiefs, with lots of high-scoring games.
NFC WEST
Arizona – 9-7 (1st), 422 PF (3rd), 421 PA (28th): The most surprising Super Bowl team of all-time (only 1 other 9-7 team ever made it, and that team , the’79 Rams, was the worst of 8 straight winning Rams teams – clearly they had a winning pedigree). The Cards definitely caught lightning in a bottle for four games, but that doesn’t mean they are suddenly a powerhouse. The defense remains porous – 421 points against the easily the most ever for a Super Bowl team, and they won three playoff games by handily winning the turnover battle (not something you can count on). The other playoff improvement was run defense, and if that is sustainable then perhaps the Cards’ defense really WILL improve dramatically – but until I see a prolonged period of excellence, color me skeptical.
I’m even MORE skeptical of the offense, primarily because Kurt Warner is now 39 and already is dealing with a preseason hip injury. When healthy, Warner is among the best QBs in the game – accurate, fearless, a treat to watch. If he goes down – and the odds are strong that he will – the vaunted Arizona passing game will be severely damaged. Matt Leinart simply hasn’t shown that he can be a top NFL QB. The Cards have plenty of weapons – Larry Fitzgerald is the best receiver in the league, and top pick Chris (Beanie) Wells might finally be the answer at running back – but if Warner goes down, this becomes a good-not-great offense.
The schedule is also quite a bit rougher in 2009, with roadtrips to Jacksonville, Chicago, Tennessee, and the Giants, and home games against the Colts, Vikings, and Packers. I don’t see them winning more than half of their out-of-division games, which makes the division record all-important. I don’t think they will go 6-0 this time in the division, and assuming Warner does go down I’m saying this team doesn’t make the playoffs. 7-9, second in the division.
San Francisco – 7-9 (2nd), 339 PF (22nd), 381 PA (23rd): Here’s my pick to unseat the Cards – the 9ers are closer than any other team in the division to being a winner. They have a top rusher, the makings of a good defense, and a QB who was better than you think in 2008 (62% completion, 13TDs, only 8 INTs). The holdout of top draft pick WR Michael Crabtree hurts, as this team desperately needs a playmaker at receiver, but I think TE Vernon Davis will finally break out a bit and help diversify the offense. This won’t be a flashy unit, but I think the 9ers will put up enough points to be competitive.
On defense, I look for Mike Singletary’s influence to shore up the run defense, the single biggest weakness on the team in 2008. There wasn’t a lot of personnel change on defense, but Singletary has had an entire offseason to influence the ‘D’ and I think that will pay off. Again, not a standout unit, but they should improve and become above-average.
Look, this isn’t an eye-catching team in any way – but I think they will be efficient, tough, and grind out quite a few 17-13 type wins. Remember, they finished 5-2 last season after Singletary took over, and played much better defense. The schedule isn’t especially easy, but this division shapes up as a race to 9 wins and I think San Francisco wins the race. 9-7 and a division title for the 9ers.
Seattle – 4-12 (3rd), 294 PF (25th), 392 PA (25th): Many people are picking the Seahawks to be the ‘surprise’ team in the west, but I can’t see it. The team looks to me like it’s a year or two from a total rebuild, especially on defense. Too many older players, too many average guys, no real stars. Offensively the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck will definitely help, but his receiving corps is decidedly average. They likewise have a lot of running backs, but none of them have proven to be top-tier either. The offensive line has been in decline for years as well. Hasselbeck’s return moves the offense from ‘poor’ to ‘mediocre’, but that’s about it.
Defensively they are strong at LB with rookie Aaron Curry and Lofa Tatupu, but the line is average and the secondary was downright bad in 2008. I can see some small improvement here due to the coaching change – Mike Holmgren mailed in the season, new coach Jim Mora will bring a lot more energy – but this isn’t a team ready to compete, and frankly unless they can rebuild on-the-fly, it may be awhile before the next good Seattle team. 6-10 for the Seahawks.
St. Louis – 2-14 (4th), 232 Pf (30th), 465 PA (31st): Footballoutsiders.com lists the Rams as a potential sleeper, citing the return to health of QB Marc Bulger, the drafting of potential stud OL Jason Smith, and a youthful roster, particularly on offense. If I squint hard enough I can see what they are getting at – but I think this team is a year away. Yes, they have a young offense, yes the line will be better, and with Steven Jackson they have a top-tier RB – but neither Jackson nor Bulger has shown the ability to stay healthy for a full season – and in Bulger’s case, it’s been three seasons since he performed at an above-average level. In addition, while the wideout corps is indeed young, the jury is out on how good they are – Donnie Avery caught 53 balls last year, no other WR on the roster caught more than 19. Still, with a bit of good luck this could be a decent offense.
Defensively I see less reason to hope…the front seven is a mix of very old and very young, and while the secondary is very young I don’t see any top-tier talents there. This team will give up a LOT of points again in 2009; they simply don’t have the horses on defense to be a shutdown-type of team.
Again, mild improvement is possible, and who knows, FO could be right – but my money is on the Rams finishing poorly again. 5-11 for the Rams in 2009.
Now that we’ve previewed the NFL, we’ll soon begin the NHL preview, and begin to look at the MLB playoffs (as well as revisit my preseason predictions).
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
