The Glass Eye: NFL Preview Part 2 – AFC North and South Previews

In light of the game this Thursday between the Steelers and Titans, rather than continue to go AFC/NFC I figured we’d better get AFC North and South finished. The rest of the previews will come out this week and weekend. For a look at my AFC/NFC East predictions, click here. Again, I’m not going to cover every major offseason move – this site has a great rundown of each team’s major moves.

AFC SOUTH

Tennessee: 13-3 (1^st in division 2008), 375 Points Scored (14^th in NFL), 234 Points Against (2^nd) – The Titans had the best record in 2008 and jumped out to a 10-0 start, despite enduring a QB change after only 1 week. Veteran Kerry Collins ran the offense efficiently and kept mistakes to a minimum – which allowed the Titans’ dominant defense and running game to flourish. However, the titans lost 4 of their last 7 games, including their first playoff tilt, which suggests that perhaps the league caught up to their scheme late in the season.

 The defense played well all year – only 1 point scored more than 21 points on them all season – but the offense clearly lost effectiveness down the stretch. It’s fair to question whether Collins can still QB a top-caliber team. Collins threw only 7 INTs all season, but he also threw only 12 TD passes, well below-average for an NFL QB even if we allow for the Titans’ potent ground game. With the Vince Young situation still unknown and no other QBs of note on the roster, it’s likely the fate of the Titans in 2009 is linked to Collins’ ability to defy his age (36) and improve this season. Their stable of running backs is superb and they may well lead the league in 2009 rushing yards, but their WR depth is questionable.

With the loss of star DT Albert Haynesworth to Washington, no notable additions, and a brutal early schedule that includes trips to Pittsburgh and New England, it’s easy to see this team getting off to a slow start. The schedule lightens up considerably after the bye, as the AFC South plays the weak NFC West, but this team isn’t as talented as the 2008 version and repeating their top seed is a long shot at best. My feeling is that they will dig too deep a hole early on, and end up scrambling for a wildcard. I’m predicting 10 wins for the Titans in this rugged division.

Indianapolis: 12-4 (2^nd), 377 PF (13^th), 298 PA (7^th) – since 2003 no team has been as consistently excellent as the Colts; they have won between 12 and 14 games every season in that span, despite a great deal of roster turnover (particularly on defense). This year, however, Peyton Manning has lost both his most trusted receiver (Marvin Harrison) and his longtime coach (Tony Dungy) to retirement. Manning is also now 33, and will start his decline soon. Very quietly, however, Indy has become a team better on defense than offense – they led the league in scoring defense in 2007 and were a top unit last season, while the offense slipped to ‘average’ status for the first time since 2002 – and by yards gained, the worst since Manning’s rookie season.

My view is that these defensive gains have to be retained for the Colts to approach 12 wins again – the receiving corps is not nearly as strong as 2 or 3 seasons ago, and the running game was a mess last season. 1^st-round pick Donald Brown may help that, but it’s too early to say for sure.  However, my guess is that between the coaching change, the uncertainties on offense, and a tough division, the Colts won’t get to 12 wins this season. Yes, I predicted doom for the team last season and they won 12 – but they very easily could have started 0-4, and luck clearly swung their way several times. With Dungy’s defensive acumen gone, I think this will be the team’s worst record since 2001 – I’m predicting 8-8 and no playoffs for the mighty Colts.

Houston: 8-8 (3^rd), 366 PF (17^th), 394 PA (27^th) – there’s no question that coach Gary Kubiak has improved this team – last season the Texans gained the 3rd-most yards in the NFL, and they boast above-average to star-level talent at WR, RB, QB, and TE. Clearly, the keys for this team in 2009 are 1.) Improve the defense, and 2.) Keep QB Matt Schaub healthy.

Defensively, the Texans have never finished above 15^th in points allowed, and have been in the bottom third of the league the past 4 seasons. The team threw money and draft picks at the problem this offseason, fortifying the front seven. The secondary is still a concern, but the Texans should be greatly improved against the run, always a good start to building a top ‘D’. As for Schaub, he’s a good QB and he’s continuing to improve, but with the departure of backup Sage Rosenfels the team is in dire straits if Schaub goes down – and he’s missed 10 games the past 2 seasons, so this is a legitimate concern. I look for the team to establish the run much more this season to take some heat off of Schaub, especially since RB Steve Slaton has established himself as a top-flight NFL rusher.

Overall this is a very young team, a good sign that they can continue to improve. The front office clearly addressed areas of need in the offseason – I feel confident that if Schaub plays 16 games, this team will make a run at the postseason. With his track record, it’s hard to believe he WILL stay healthy, especially when I saw him limping already in a preseason game…but I think he’ll manage to play 14 games effectively. The secondary still worries me, but yes, I’m picking the Houston Texans to win the AFC South with an 11-5 record. Watch their 4-game set from 11/8 to 12/6 closely – 4 division games, 2 against Indy – if they win 3 of those 4, I think they are all set.

Jacksonville: 5-11 (4^th), 302 PF (24^th), 367 PA (21^st) – After four straight .500 or better seasons, the wheels came off in 2008 for the Jaguars. Injuries, regression, bad luck, bad coaching – you name it, Jacksonville had it last year. Most damaging were injuries along both lines, and a MAJOR regression by QB David Garrard. SOME regression was expected; after throwing only 3 INTs in 2007, it was easy to predict he’d at least double that figure – but Garrard’s slippage was more than could be predicted. The ineffectiveness of his wideouts played a large role, and the import of Torry Holt should help (if Holt isn’t over the hill at age 33). It will be interesting to see if RB Maurice Jones-Drew can carry the load by himself after years of timesharing with Fred Taylor. With no notable RB depth, the pressure is on ‘MJD’ to be both healthy AND effective. IF the Jags’ running attack stalls, the team will struggle.

Defensively, the Jags boast a solid secondary but lack game-changing players in the front seven. They MUST generate more QB pressure in 2009. The team lost more top talent than it gained in my opinion, and while I applaud their drafting of 2 top tackles, it may be some time before those picks bear fruit. In a tough division, I see only minor improvement for the Jags. Call it 7-9 and the cellar again in 2009.

AFC NORTH

Pittsburgh: 12-4 (1^st), 347 PF (20^th), 223 PA (1^st) – despite being the team I follow and know the best, they are one of the hardest predictions for me this year. Their o-line problems are still very real, and their offensive statistics last season were downright mediocre – yet you always had a sense they could move the ball when they needed to, as they did so many times late in games. The defense was as good as ever under coordinator Dick LeBeau, and figures to be a top unit again this season. The schedule is easier this season – so why am I puzzled? Lack of depth along the lines, lack of a consistent running game, Super Bowl hangover, the Ravens…enough reasons?

As with ANY NFL team, key injuries could decimate the season. The most irreplaceable parts are Big Ben, Polamalu, and the D-line. The first two are obvious – but the D-line thrives by rotating in and out frequently; injuries could overexpose some aging players, as they did in 2007. As for the running game, simply put the Steelers MUST rush more effectively in 2009. Last season teams still respected the ground game, but this season I expect teams to dare the Steelers to rush more than ever, and the team MUST respond to that or Big Ben will face a TON of pressure. The team is fine at LB and at wideout, and I expect the special teams to be MUCH improved with the addition of return specialist Stefan Logan and the return of punter Dan Sepulveda.

I expect less hangover than there was after the last Super Bowl win – the key players are seasoned vets now and understand the challenge – but I think some letdown is possible. As for the Ravens, while I’m certainly no fan I respect their talent and can easily see Joe Flacco on the Big Ben career path. It’s almost certainly a 2-team divisional race, and one that will likely be every bit as close as last season.  Call it a cop-out, but I think the Steelers and Ravens will tie for the best divisional record at 11-5…predicting the tiebreaker is way too tough, so we’ll stick with a tie and see how it plays out.

Baltimore: 11-5 (2^nd), 385 PF (11^th), 244 PA (3^rd) – The Ravens defense of the 2000’s simply HAS to go down as one of the best ever. They have finished in the top-6 9 of the last 10 years in yards against. Despite many changes to both personnel and the coaching staff, the unit dominates year after year. If the Ravens had even an above-average offense the past decade, the franchise might have won 2-4 Super Bowls – QB was their biggest problem.

However, I think their never-ending search for a QB is over; Joe Flacco did a great job as a rookie, throwing for almost 3000 yards and only 12 INTs. He showed tremendous poise even under heavy pressure. I expect him to develop into a fine NFL QB – not hall-of-fame caliber, but certainly in the next tier. Baltimore backed Flacco up with a pounding ground game, and I expect Ray Rice to ad a multidimensional threat out of the backfield this season. The area of concern is at receiver – Derrick Mason unretired, but you have to wonder how much has left in the tank. Todd Heap is also in decline, and there’s no heir apparent at either position.

Defensively, the team remains strong as ever – a little weaker at LB perhaps with the loss of Bart Scott, a little stronger in the secondary with 2 new corners signed. Ageless Ray Lewis and safety Ed Reed remain the keys to the defense – as long as both are healthy, expect the team to finish in the top-5 of the league behind a bevy of sacks and turnovers.

You already know what I predict for the team, 11-5 and a division tie with the Steelers, in no small part because I expect a season split with Pittsburgh. Frankly, I think the offense here is on the rise in a big way – the real key is, how will the defense fare with yet ANOTHER new coordinator and an aging core? The early season schedule is also tough, with roadtrips to SD, NE, and the Vikings. If they get to their bye at 4-2, look out.

Cincinnati: 4-11-1 (3^rd), 204 PF (32^nd), 364 PA (19^th) – Predicting a tough 2008 for the Bengals was easy, but to see the defense play respectably and the offense finish DEAD LAST in points – well, THAT was a surprise. Where does the team go from here?

Much depends on the health of QB Carson Palmer – he played only 4 games, and after he was lost for the season the team never scored 20 points in a game. Palmer’s return heralds a return to respectability for the offense and some real hope in the Queen City, as the defense greatly improved as the year went on (19 points against the last 3 games).

Offensively, besides Palmer’s return there are few positives. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is gone, Chad Ochocinco (how silly) is aging, and RB Cedrick Benson still looks like a draft bust rather than a potential stud RB. The offensive line was addressed through the draft, but this team needs an additional infusion of skill-position talent to be a good offense again. Defensively the gains are real, and with the import of Tank Johnson and Roy Williams they look to be a pretty decent defense in 2009. They still lack depth, especially in the secondary, but this team will be hard to run against and could play a lot of close games in 2009.

The Bengals aren’t ready to win yet, but they’re on the way. I look for a 7-9 record this season.

Cleveland: 4-12 (4^th), 232 PF (30^th), 350 PA (16^th) – Well, that didn’t last long, did it? After a surprising 10-6 record in 2007, many saw Cleveland as the rising AFC North power. I questioned their bonafides, particularly those of QB Derek Anderson, and predicted an 8-8 record. Turns out I wasn’t pessimistic enough, and their fall to 4-12 led to the ouster of their coach and a general exodus (TE Kellen Winslow the most notable goner). The QB situation still seems unsettled, although in the end I think Brady Quinn HAS to be the guy.

I like elements of their defense, and really, unloading the likes of Winslow is addition by subtraction, but the team simply doesn’t have enough talent to compete with the Ravens and Steelers. They turned over a very large portion of their roster, so it’s hard to really judge what they have at this point, but I expect at least a year of rebuilding under new coach Eric Mangini — 6-10 and another long year in Cleveland.

Next: NFC North/South.

Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.