As expected, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red wings both advanced to the Stanley Cup Finals, a series with more intrigue than you might expect in a rematch. We’ll go over how they got here, what to look for and of course our predictions. Thus far in the postseason The Eye is 12-2 picking series winners, with the two losses being the ouster of #1 seeds San Jose and Boston – series almost no one called correctly. This series is seen as a toss-up – can The Eye get it right?
Detroit dispatched Chicago in 5 games, a not-unexpected result. However, aside from a 6-1 whipping in Game 4, the series was extremely close – three OT games, two of which went the Wings’ way. In addition the Wings got beat-up in this series – Nicklas Lidstrom, Jon Ericsson, Pavel Datsyuk, and Kris Draper are all nursing injuries. Lidstrom and Ericsson are already declared ready for Game 1, while Datsyuk is a game-time decision and there’s no word on Draper. All four players missed games 4 and 5, and since both were Detroit wins it might seem that none were missed. I’d agree in Game 4, since Chicago basically imploded in that game, but Game 5 showed that absent a stellar performance from G Chris Osgood, the Red wings are mortal without all their stars (as any team would be).
Datsyuk has been underperforming the entire playoffs, which leads me to believe he broke a bone in his foot either at the end of the season or in the first round – but the Wings have plenty of depth up front to make up for his loss. No, the keys are truly Lidstrom and Ericsson – if they aren’t close to 100%, the Penguins will take advantage. Lidstrom is a surefire Hall-of-Famer, the best defenseman of the past decade in my opinion, and the rock of the team. His absence will open up more space for the Pens’ forwards, and just as importantly de-fang the lethal Detroit power play just a bit.
As for Pittsburgh, while I thought they got a break when Carolina beat Boston, I had no clue it would be THAT much of a break – the Hurricanes had a terrible series. Cam Ward was somewhere between mediocre and brutally bad (name two great saves he made in the entire series), and overall Carolina looked tired. I’ve heard and read that their two seven-game series took all their energy – maybe, but Pittsburgh also had just played seven games, and also endured an EXTREMELY physical 6-game series against the Flyers. I think Pittsburgh was simply the better team, and after being outscored 20-9 in 4 games I doubt Carolina will argue the point much.
Sidney Crosby and (especially) Evgeni Malkin are playing the best hockey of their careers right now – both have 28 points in 17 games, far and away the most of anyone still playing (Johan Franzen leads the Wings with 19), and both have been absolutely unstoppable at times. In addition, the other forwards have begun to chip in over the past 10 games – Bill Guerin has 7 goals, Ruslan Fedotenko has 6, Max Talbot has 4, etc. Marc-Andre’ Fleury hasn’t been as dominant as last season but he’s made big saves at key times and never seems to get rattled. He has had stretches where he didn’t see many shots in the playoffs, that’s one problem he probably won’t have against Detroit – they’ve averaged over 35 shots per game in the postseason.
Keys to the Cup:
-Detroit must get traffic in front of Fleury and win the battles in front of the net. Franzen and Holmstrom in particular are almost unstoppable around the cage, the pressure will be on Hal Gill and Brooks Orpik to make them pay a physical price.
-Pittsburgh, by contrast, HAS to get great goaltending. Detroit is too good to beat if the scores are constantly 6-5 or 5-4, Pittsburgh needs to win 3-2 or 2-1 games in this series and Fleury probably has to steal a game.
-Detroit’s injuries and age – how much will they limit Lidstrom and Co.? How much gas does Detroit have left in the tank? ESPN’s Pierre Lebrun reported that the Wings were extremely tired after Game 5, and Detroit brass was not at all happy about the league’s decision to move up the start of the Finals by a week. Pittsburgh, by contrast, was thrilled with the switch – the Pens are younger and much healthier than the Red Wings.
-Games 1 and 2 are critical in this series. Pittsburgh has had home-ice advantage in every series but two over the past 2 seasons – and in both the road series, Pittsburgh came home down 2-0. They overcame the deficit against Washington, but it took an OT goal in Game 3 to send them on their way to victory. Against Detroit last season, the Pens were shut out the first two games and couldn’t climb out of that hole. With the Red wings beat-up and perhaps a bit tired, and with back-to-back games Saturday and Sunday, Pittsburgh simply MUST win one of those games.
-Experience matters in the playoffs. Obviously the Red wings have it in spades, and Chicago’s lack of experience showed in their series against Detroit – just as Pittsburgh’s lack of experience contributed to their poor showing last season in Games 1 and 2 vs. the Wings. A year later, Pittsburgh has endured plenty of adversity and overcome many obstacles. I think that they will match Detroit’s intensity from the start this time around.
So, finally, prediction time. Every other pick I’ve made I’ve picked with my head not my heart. Detroit is the defending champ, they added Marian Hossa, they’ve proven that they are the best team in the league over the past decade. However, Pittsburgh has the best 1-2 punch in the NHL since the days of Lemieux and Jagr. Crosby and Malkin HAVE to play great to win this series, and I think they will. Detroit’s injuries will be the difference, PENS IN SIX!
