Well, the first round of the NHL playoffs went mostly to form, with the Ducks’ upset of the Sharks the only notable upset (albeit a big one). We’ll take a look at each of the round 2 matchups, as well as a quick look at the Steelers’ draft, but first I have to discuss the NASCAR race at Talladega last week.
First, a little history – Adam Sewell has an in-depth article about how the restrictor plate phenomenon started, but the short version is that in 1987 the pole speed at Talladega was over 212MPH, and Bobby Allison’s car almost flew into the stands after a crash. NASCAR instituted the plates as a means to keep speeds down, and from that narrow perspective they ‘worked’: the pole speeds haven’t broken 200MPH since. However, the plates also have bunched the field for the entire race, putting 43 cars within inches of each other for almost the entire race. This puts the drivers in the impossible position of having to be error-free for over two hours of driving while traveling at over 180 miles per hour. Humans simply cannot meet that standard, so almost every race at Talladega features a huge wreck involving 8 or more cars. This carnage has gone on for over 20 years now at Daytona and Talladega, tearing up millions of dollars’ worth of cars, putting the drivers’ lives in unnecessary peril, and (as we saw last weekend) jeopardizing the fans’ health as well.
As the linked story details, Carl Edwards’ car was catapulted into the catchfence, and debris injured seven fans. Now, the catchfence served its purpose, keeping the body of the car out of the stands, and there’s no question that such horrific accidents are rare. However, that does NOT excuse NASCAR’s gross negligence here. The top brass of NASCAR have always made noise about how safety is the top priority, but their actions have spoken to the contrary. In 2000 Kenny Irwin and Adam Petty died from injuries sustained on the track, but aside from a rash decision to make the New Hampshire a restrictor plate race that year (which made that race perhaps THE most boring race in the history of racing), they did nothing. It took the death of Dale Earnhardt the following year at Daytona to convince NASCAR to mandate the HANS device, which protects a driver’s spine and neck during a frontal collision. After Carl Edwards’ crash last weekend Edwards said “We’ll race like this until we kill somebody, then [NASCAR] will change it.”
Given NASCAR’s past actions, sadly I believe Edwards is correct – it will take a true tragedy to get NASCAR to take the proper corrective action, which would involve either lowering the banking at the track or putting a chicane in the backstretch. Both of those fixes would cost money however, and if there’s one thing that has become clear over the years, it’s that NASCAR will rush to make any move that improves their profit margin, but will move like ‘molasses in January’ on any changes that harm the bottom line. The REAL tragedy is that someone probably will have to die for NASCAR to effect real change, and that’s why they lost me as a die-hard fan several years ago.
On to the Steeler draft – we’re not going to spend a lot of time here, as we said last week a draft cannot really be graded for years. We can, however, judge how well the team addressed its needs, and in that regard I give Pittsburgh an A-. 1st-rounder Evander Hood addresses their lack of depth and youth on the defensive-line, they drafted two corners to address Brant McFadden’s departure, and they addressed the offensive line with two picks. They even picked a big, pounding running back in the 5th round, Frank Summers, who seems ticketed for the old Jerome Bettis goal-line duties. Getting PSU center A.Q. Shipley in the 7th round could be a real steal, while scouts are down on him I think he can make a fine pro center. Time will tell…but I certainly don’t see any silly picks or reaches here.
Now, onto the NHL playoff previews for Round Two:
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Detroit (#2 seed) vs. Anaheim (#8): I hit on seven of my eight predicted winners two weeks ago, but the miss was a big one as Anaheim upset the top-seeded San Jose Sharks, and really dominated most of the series. The Sharks are making postseason chokes a yearly affair, but let’s credit the Ducks – they went with Jonas Hiller in goal, and he was simply sensational, holding the Sharks to only 10 goals in 6 games and recording two shutouts. Anaheim got 9 of their 18 goals from their top line of Ryan, Perry, and Getzlaf – to beat Detroit they will need more secondary scoring, especially from Teemu Selanne.
Detroit looked like a machine in sweeping the Blue Jackets, and hardly breaking a sweat while doing so. They outscored Columbus 18-7, scored on 7 of 22 power plays, and were only challenged in the 4th game. Frankly, if Detroit plays this well the rest of the playoffs they ought to just give them the Cup now, no one else in the playoffs can match their “A game”. But that’s why they play the games, and while I think Detroit will win, I think Anaheim’s grit and playoff experience will make this series a bit more competitive. RED WINGS IN SIX.
Vancouver (#3) vs. Chicago (#4): What a fascinating series – the youth and skill of the Blackhawks against the best netminder (in my opinion) in the game today, Roberto Luongo. Thanks largely to Luongo, the Canucks held the Blues to only 5 goals in 4 games, and only one power play goal in 24 attempts! Those numbers aren’t sustainable against a potent Chicago offense, but look for these games to be low-scoring, and certainly less offensive-minded than the Blackhawks would like. The Canucks got tremendous scoring balance in the last round, and that must continue for them to succeed – the Blackhawks have an excellent pair of shutdown defensemen in Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook, and I look for those two to be matched up against the Sedin twins the entire series.
Chicago will need to score early in this series to build confidence (and perhaps rattle Luongo a little), but I think the key matchup here is the Canuck offense against goalie Nicolai Khabibulin. The ‘Bulin Wall’ was strong against the potent Calgary offense, and I think he’s up to the task again this round. This should be an excellent series, VERY close games throughout, but I’m going to take the BLACKHAWKS IN SIX in a mild upset.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Boston (#1) vs. Carolina (#6): Fresh off the most improbable Game Seven comeback in history (2 goals in the last 1:20 to tie, then win), Carolina comes into this series on a roll and full of confidence. The ‘Canes have scoring depth, a star in Eric Staal, and a playoff-tested goalie in Cam Ward. What they don’t have is a top-tier defensive corps, and that’s where I think they can be exploited by the powerful Bruin forwards. Also, Carolina won despite scoring only 2 power play goals in 29 chances. That success rate will have to at least triple for them to have a chance against Boston. The good news is that they killed 89% of New Jersey’s power plays last round, which bodes well for this series.
Carolina will have to win the special-teams battle to prevail, because the Bruins were one of the best 5-on-5 teams in the NHL this season. The Bruins scored 60 more even-strength goals than they allowed, while the Hurricanes were only +4 in this area. Boston’s superior size and depth will wear down Carolina if the series is played with few penalties.
The ‘X-factor’ in this series for me is Boston Goalie Tim Thomas. He had an AMAZING season and dominated Montreal in the 1st round, but Montreal was a shell of themselves with injuries and internal strife. Carolina represents Thomas’ first real test of the postseason – can he keep up his regular-season form? He doesn’t have to outplay Cam Ward, just more or less play him to a draw and let the Bruins’ superior depth win the series. I think Ward will steal a game or 2 in the series, but this is NOT a particularly good matchup for the Hurricanes – BRUINS IN FIVE.
Washington (#2) vs. Pittsburgh (#4): Neither team’s fanbase really wanted this matchup, as both sides realize how dangerous their opponent is. The NHL wanted it very badly, as the league’s top-3 scorers and biggest draws are all here in Crosby, Malkin, and Ovechkin. To me, however, this series will come down to players other than the Big Three – they will do their thing and get their points, but how will the supporting cast fare? For the Caps this means Alex Semin, Brooks Laich, and Mike Green must produce consistently and their grinders must pitch in a few goals. For the Pens, Crosby’s wingers need to step up – Chris Kunitz didn’t score a goal against the Flyers, and Bill Guerin was held scoreless after Game 2. The Pens’ vaunted third line of Staal, Kennedy, and Cooke must also wreak havoc and get their great cycling game going.
Another key to this series, as with the Boston series, will be how it is played/officiated. The Penguins play very well at even strength, but their power play has been something of a disaster at times, and very unreliable. Washington, by contrast, boasted one of the most potent power plays in the league this season, and power play goals accounted for about 1/3 of their goals during the season (for Pittsburgh, PP goals were less than ¼ of their scoring). Ovechkin is very one-dimensional, he does not seem to like playing in the defensive zone and isn’t particularly effective at it. Power play time plays to his strength, the offensive zone. The Pens would much rather play a 5-on-5 game, get all four lines rolling, and take their chances.
The biggest unknown here is young Simeon Varlamov, who took over in net for the Capitals after Game 1 and was absolutely brilliant: 4-2, 1.17 GAA, .952 save percentage. Now, the Rangers have a pop-gun offense, but Varlamov made all the saves he was supposed to make and never looked rattled. If Washington can win the first two games and allow Varlamov to settle in further, they will win this series – conversely, if Washington goes down 2-0 at home to the Pens like they did against the Rangers, this series won’t go six games. The schedule is also a factor here for both sides – this is the last series stating and the first one ending, with the earliest scheduled Game 7 of any series. Games 4 and 5 are back-to-back, and there’s no more than one off day between any of the games. This should affect both teams equally early on, but tired legs usually equal more penalties – so Washington could pick up steam late in the series.
Clearly, the key for Pittsburgh is to steal a game early, preferably Game 1, and hope they can rattle young Varlamov, who hasn’t experienced any real adversity yet in the playoffs (i.e. he hasn’t given up a bad goal yet). I’ve spent the past day weighing this in my mind – this series could go any direction – but in the end, I think the Pens’ edge in experience, especially in goal, will get them through. PENS IN SIX.
