Friday night I officiated my first scrimmage of the year, and the first varsity football games are this Friday, which means…the NFL is almost here! Let’s take a quick look at each team around the league. We’ll run through the NFC this time, and look at the AFC next week, with a closer look at the Steelers. We’ll go West to East.
NFC West
Arizona(9-7): the perennial sleeper, Arizona has a lot of flashy talent but never seems to have strength in the trenches. Ex-Steeler coach Ken Whisenhunt gave them a much-needed dose of toughness last season, but apparently they still haven’t solved their QB problems. Late word is that they’ve named fragile Kurt Warner the starter, which will last 2 or 3 weeks before he gets hurt again. They REALLY need to see if Matt Leinart is the real deal or not. As per usual lately, they will be very dangerous and in the weak NFC West .500 will be in the thick of things, but don’t look for them to dominate unless Kurt Warner stays unusually healthy, and/or the O and D lines both improve a lot from 2007.
Seattle(10-6): A team seemingly stuck in limbo, much like Arizona only with slightly more talent. Seattle boasts a good QB, some talent on both lines and some young defenders in the back 7, but they don’t have the rushing offense or the consistency on defense to be an elite team. Still, in the NFC West they appear to be the king of the hill.
St. Louis(4-12): the glory years long past, the “Greatest Show on Turf” now more closely resembles the laughingstock days of the early 90’s. Last season they ranked 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed, while injuries on offense dropped that unit into the bottom half of the league as well. They can score points if Marc Bulger, Orlando Pace, and Steven Jackson all play 16 games – but I wouldn’t bet on that happening. Another tough year in Ram Country.
San Francisco(6-10): This team has some talent on defense and at RB with Frank Gore, but their QB situation is a mess and they traded their top draft pick last season to New England. It appears to me that Alex Smith just isn’t an NFL talent, and until the team finds a reliable QB they will be losing a lot of games.
NFC Central
Chicago(6-10): Speaking of QB problems, what exactly is Chicago doing? They’ve known for a couple seasons that Rex Grossman isn’t up to the challenge, and Kyle Orton hasn’t fared much better – yet they eschewed the position again in the draft. Their once-dominant defense is cracking a bit at the seams, they’re breaking in a new running back, and they have injury problems on the offensive line. The NFC North is a tough division, and the Bears don’t have the arms to keep up in this arms race.
Detroit(9-7): My sleeper NFC team, the Lions got off to a 6-2 start in ’07 before losing 7 of their last 8. the Lions have talent on offense and appear to be changing to more of a ball-control offense, which should take some pressure of their league-worst defense. With the expected regression of Green Bay, and the QB uncertainty in Minnesota, I look for Detroit to come in at or near a winning record.
Green Bay(7-9): Look, they were boxed in by Favre and his crazy narcissistic ‘retirement’ shenanigans, and trading him to the AFC was their best option. Having said that, they will almost certainly regress this season. Aaron Rodgers is completely untested, and even an optimistic view puts his first season as the starter quite a bit below the bar Favre set in his career. Also consider Favre’s durability and the fact that Rodgers has already had injury problems in his short career, and it’s clear that Green Bay’s offense isn’t going to score 435 points this season. On defense, they remain stout but lacking in depth. Times will be better soon in Green Bay, but this looks to be a tough year for them.
Minnesota(10-6): The class of the division, and an average QB from being elite. They have everything else: a dominant offensive line and running back; good receivers; a punishing defense, especially against the run; and an experienced coach. The question is, can Tavaris Jackson be a productive NFL QB? That question holds the key form the Vikes – if he’s decent they might win 12 games, if he’s horrible they might go 7-9. I’m going to split the difference and say 10 wins, which should be enough in the ‘black and blue’ division.
NFC South
Atlanta(4-12): What a mess. Mike Vick’s fall from grace brought this franchise down as well, and this is another year of picking up the pieces. They are apparently starting 1st-round pick Matt Ryan at QB, which doesn’t seem that smart to me. He’ll have a horrible year and get pounded, is the experience gained worth the potential damage to his body and psyche (see Carr, David, Houston Texans circa 2005)? 6 wins would be a major upset for this squad.
Carolina (11-5): Look for a strong rebound season in Carolina. QB Jake Delhomme is healthy, they drafted RB Jonathan Stewart and OT Jeff Otah, and their defense should remain stout. Assuming Delhomme stays healthy the Panthers look to be the class of the division.
New Orleans (10-6): After a not-unexpected regression last season following their near-miraculous 2006 run, look for the Saints to return to winning in 2008. Reggie Bush needs to prove his game translates from college to the pros and as with so many teams they need to stay healthy, but an emphasis on defense in the draft should shore up that porous unit. I expect the Saints to make the playoffs in 2008.
Tampa Bay(6-10): The first-place schedule and an aging roster, especially on defense, will make for a long season in Tampa. QB Jeff Garcia is no spring chicken, and his backups, while numerous, are also quite mediocre. I don’t see the talent here to stay with the top dogs of the division.
NFC East
Dallas(12-4): In the toughest division in football, as much as it pains me I think the Cowboys will come out on top. They have all the offensive weapons, and if Pacman Jones is reinstated they’ll have the best collection of thug…er, talent in the conference. Tony Romo has made a believer out of me, and they shored up the RB and CB positions with two first-round draft picks. In this division, any key injuries will make a big difference, but all things being equal the Cowboys should prevail.
New York Giants(7-9): Yes, I know they won the Super Bowl, and I know they dominated the postseason, etc. etc. I also know they were maddeningly inconsistent during the regular season, Strahan retired, and Osi Umenyiora is out for the season with a knee injury. Until the playoffs, Eli Manning was the Manning who couldn’t string two good games together – now I’m supposed to believe he’s magically found consistency? Those facts, plus a tough schedule and division, lead me to believe this team will not even make the playoffs this season and in fact will most likely finish 4th in their division.
Philadelphia(10-6): Donovan Mcnabb is the key. If he’s healthy and motivated, the Eagles should win ten games. If he’s erratic or injured, they play .500 ball. They need WR help, and standout safety Brian Dawkins is getting long in the tooth, but they have one of the top all-around RB threats in Brian Westbrook and a savvy coach in Andy Reid. Call it a hunch, but I expect Philly to contend this season.
Washington(8-8): This is make-or-break time for QB Jason Campbell. Yes, he’s had a lot of different coordinators, yes it’s always a bit chaotic in Washington, but this is his third year – if he’s going to become an above-average QB, the time is now. Washington, as usual, is betting on a veteran roster to stay healthy and productive, and already they have injury woes – DE Jason Taylor is out 10-14 days, as is right tackle Jon Jansen. As with every team in the NFC East, there’s talent on the roster, but I don’t think the Skins have quite enough to challenge for the playoffs.
Next column we’ll review the AFC, and coming soon: an exlusive interview with a prominent member of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ front office.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
