Back in the summer of 2016, I interviewed then-RNC chairman Reince Priebus for a documentary about Donald Trump. He was firmly planted in Camp Trump, readying to unite the party around its candidate during the convention. But when I asked the simple question, “Is this now the party of Trump?” Priebus called the question “very off-putting.”
Why? Because, he said, “it wouldn’t be the party of Bush … it’s not the party of Romney. It’s the Republican Party. We exist — the nominees come and go. They’re the temporary recipients of support. The Republican Party is not the personal property of temporary recipients of our support. We exist. We’re the party. We’re here. They want to join us. We’re not competing to join them. I don’t buy that.”
But that was then. Just over nine months into Donald Trump’s term, it’s clear that the calculus has completely changed. The Republican party now is the Party of Trump.
Republican voters have made that very clear, no matter how much pushback they get from retiring Republican senators and a former Republican President. By a 2-1 margin, Republican voters trust Trump more than they trust congressional Republicans. He has an 82% approval rating in the party, and by an almost 3-1 margin, GOP voters like the way he’s handling his relationship with members of Congress. Translation: Give ’em hell, Donny.
And Trump has made it just as clear he isn’t interested in joining whatever GOP conglomerate existed before. The party — his new party — has “great unity.” His agenda is their agenda. His lunch with Senate Republicans the other day was a “love fest.” After all, there was applause. And the President loves applause.
Here’s the truth: if you gave many of those same elected officials some truth serum and anonymity, they would sound more like Jeff Flake than Donald Trump. But crossing Trump — at least right now — is dangerous. (See: Flake and Bob Corker.) So for now, at least, it is Trump’s party because those who might take issue with him have been intimidated into silence. This is not profiles in courage. Understanding their reticence is not rocket science, either. (See: Survivor: US Senate)
Of course, this being Washington, that could change if the GOP gets walloped in 2018. Up until now, Republicans haven’t seen much tension between their own self-interest and supporting the President. If he looks weakened, well, tongues could loosen.
Right now, the glue that holds the party together is the prospect of big tax cuts. It’s GOP orthodoxy that Republicans have actually thought about, unlike the empty “repeal and replace” Obamacare mantra. And there’s also the sense that if they don’t stick together, they will hang separately. But there’s a danger zone in this appealing rush to reform, too: first, they could fail. Second, they could win. This President made lots of promises to workers in the steel plants in Pennsylvania and the coal mines of West Virginia. They aren’t likely to look kindly on tax breaks for the rich or corporations. If they don’t see some bottom line benefits, the buck will stop with Trump.
Sure, Trump is the rare pol whose supporters have been extraordinarily willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. He’s made a deep emotional connection with those who feel like outsiders and admire the fact that he has kept his credential as an outsider in Washington rather than “selling out.”
But at some point the joys of giving the finger to the establishment will wane. Other questions — the real-life ones — become more important. As in: Has my life changed for the better? Has the President helped my family? No doubt about it, Trump has forged a strong relationship with his core supporters. But if they start waffling, watch out.
It’s Trump’s GOP now. But even Trump needs to prove he’s the life of the party.
