Former Alabama state Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore cruised to a nine-point victory over appointed Sen. Luther Strange in Tuesday’s Alabama Republican Senate runoff.
It was a clear victory for the conservative grassroots over the GOP establishment as Strange had the backing of, among others, President Donald Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
But, there were a lot more winners — and losers — from the results. Here’s my look at the best and the worst from Tuesday night.
WINNERS
* Roy Moore: Moore was already a quasi-celebrity in national conservative circles thanks to his 10 Commandments fight and refusal to sanction same-sex marriages. (Each of those stances led to his removal as a state Supreme Court justice.) But this win — and his likely general election victory in two months — will make him a major star in the conservative firmament. Moore will be broadly aligned with the Ted Cruz wing of the Senate but his views — on, say, Sharia Law — are considerably more extreme than even Cruz. And in today’s Republican Party, those views — and his unapologetic willingness to voice them — will make him a major player on the ideological right of the party.
* Steve Bannon: Bannon, the former chief strategist in the Trump White House, made Alabama a test case in his efforts to overthrow the Republican party establishment. In the run-up to the vote on Tuesday, he issued sweeping condemnations of McConnell and his ilk (“most corrupt and most incompetent group of individuals in this country”) and issued a dire warning to them: “Your day of reckoning is coming. Those words would be just bluster if Strange had won. But Moore’s convincing victory suggests that Bannon is channeling — and leading — a grassroots activist army on the right that should rightly scare the crap out of any Republican incumbent with any sense.
* Doug Jones: Most people have never heard of the Alabama Democratic nominee. But Jones, a former US Attorney, will likely become the new cause celebre for Democrats trying to beat back the rising Trumpism within the Republican Party. The math in Alabama — particularly in what is expected to be a very low turnout special general election just 13 days before Christmas — is very, very tough for any Democrat. If Strange had won, Democrats would have walked away from this race. But Moore’s volatility — and controversial past — give Jones a puncher’s chance here.
* Alabama polling: One of the big stories leading up to this race was that Alabama was a notoriously difficult state to poll, particularly in what was expected to be a very low-turnout affair. But, by and large, the polls were right! The Real Clear Politics average of Alabama polls gave Moore an 11-point edge. He won by 9.2 points.
* Bob Corker: I’m sure the Tennessee Republican senator’s retirement announcement wasn’t meant to dovetail with Moore’s victory. But that they came on the same day is, in a way, fitting. Corker is one of the most admired senators — of either party in Washington — but faced the prospect of a serious primary challenge from his right next year. And, based on Moore’s convincing win on Tuesday, it’s uniquely possible Corker might have found himself on the wrong end of a primary. Lots of success in politics is knowing when to get in — and knowing when to get out. And Corker looks like he got out at just the right time.
* Alabama political reporters: The special general election between Moore and Jones has at least the potential to be competitive. And, because Moore is involved, it will draw national attention. If Moore wins — as is likely — then oh man what a story he will be to cover. (Here’s my list of best Alabama political reporters from 2015.)
LOSERS
* Mitch McConnell: The Senate majority leader — and his aligned super PAC — went all out for Strange. That was the right move for McConnell’s internal politics since GOP incumbents have to know that the leader will do everything he can to protect them from primary challengers. It was also the right move for McConnell’s broader vision of Republican politics because Moore is going to say and do things that, at a minimum, distract from McConnell’s preferred message. But losing is still losing. And now McConnell not only has to contend with Moore in the Senate but the possibility that the Bannon wing of the party will oust other GOP incumbents in places like Nevada, Arizona and Mississippi.
* Donald Trump: The President may have spent Tuesday night/Wednesday morning deleting tweets in support of Strange, but that won’t change the fact that he was for the loser in this race. Trump’s endorsement of Strange was, uh, strange from the start. He acknowledged at a rally for Strange last Friday that he really didn’t know him and hadn’t even talked to him before he began making calls to shore up support for the repeal and replace legislation on Obamacare. You can see why Trump did it; he wanted to placate McConnell because he needs the majority leader on his side for the future legislative fights to come. Still, for a candidate whose #brand is “winning,” Trump didn’t do that on Tuesday. And you can bet he’s pissed about it.
* Roger Wicker/Dean Heller/Jeff Flake: All three GOP incumbents either already face serious primary challenges or are expected to in the very near future. Moore’s victory on Tuesday night will be looked at as a blueprint for the challengers in all three of these races. And with Bannon — and the deep-pocketed Mercer family — keen on taking it to the establishment, this trio had better look out.
* Robert Bentley: The scandal-plagued former governor got one final kick in the teeth on Tuesday when Strange, who he appointed to fill the seat vacated by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, lost. Bentley’s cloud hung heavy over Strange throughout the campaign; many Alabama observers believe that had the “Luv Guv” not appointed Strange before resigning that Big Luther would have won the special election in his own right.
* $$$: Strange had a massive spending edge in the race thanks to almost $10 million in ad spending by the McConnell-backed Senate Leadership Fund. But the money didn’t really matter against Moore, who had spent decades cultivating a base of committed supporters who weren’t swayed by the barrage of negative attacks about him on the Alabama airwaves. As Trump proved during the 2016 GOP presidential primary campaign, money matters less than passionate supporters. And you can’t buy those with all the money in the world.
* Nicknames: Strange has a good one: “Big Luther.” (He’s 6-foot-9.) Moore doesn’t have a nickname. It’s my strong belief we need WAY more nicknames in politics. Tuesday was a setback for my cause.
