The Trump economy turns six months old on Friday.
Labor Department officials will publish the July jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here are 4 things to know.
1. Economy keeps humming: July was likely another good month for jobs. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney anticipate 183,000 jobs were added last month. They also forecast that the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% the prior month. Wage growth is expected to be around 2.4% — where it’s hovered for the last two years.
2. First million jobs of the Trump era? The first jobs report under President Trump was February. Since then, the United States has added 863,000 jobs. If the numbers come in as expected, July’s gains could push the Trump presidency over the 1 million threshold. The country added more than 11 million jobs during President Obama’s two terms.
3. Obama job gains slightly ahead of Trump: In Obama’s last five months in office, the U.S. economy gained 908,000 jobs. Trump is just a hair behind with 863,000 new jobs in his first five months. Remember an important caveat: Presidents aren’t entirely responsible for the job market’s gains or losses. A litany of factors influence it.
4. Immigration policy poses risk to job market: Economists say that reducing legal immigration, as Trump is proposing, would put a strain on the job market and economic growth. Fewer workers mean less growth, so long as workers’ productivity doesn’t surge.
Already, the American economy faces twin challenges: a large group of retiring Baby Boomers and too few younger U.S.-born workers to replace them. For decades, the country has relied on foreign-born workers to keep the job market growing. Last year, there were 27 million foreign-born workers in the United States.
