South Korea President Park Geun-hye’s removal from office comes at the end of a week of huge instability in East Asia.
On Monday, North Korea launched three ballistic missiles into the sea off Japan’s coast. Days later, China stepped up its stiff opposition to THAAD, a US-made missile defense system being deployed to South Korea.
Between North Korea and China, the United States and Japan, sits the now leaderless South Korea.
Park’s impeachment over alleged corruption was upheld Friday in an unanimous vote by the South Korean Constitutional Court, making her the country’s first president to be removed in such a manner.
With the country’s ruling conservatives, previously under Park, looking out of favor, it seems likely the country will turn to the left-wing opposition at the upcoming election.
But looming over everything is North Korea — can a liberal South Korean president pursue a dialogue with the North Koreans and not look weak?
Here’s what experts expect to happen next.
So who is in charge?
Following the ruling, Park is immediately removed as president of South Korea.
Acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn, the country’s prime minister who took over after her impeachment by the National Assembly in December, will remain in the post until the election.
The presidential campaign begins immediately and an election will be held within 60 days. No date has been announced yet.
If Park hadn’t been impeached she’d have remained in power until February 2018.
A new leader after a two-month election was preferable to Park hanging on, weak and undermined for another year, Robert Kelly, associate professor at Pusan National University’s Department of Political Science, told CNN.
“This is a pretty scary time (in East Asia),” Kelly said. “The impeachment probably improves Korean stability, Korea’s ability to act as a regional player. It’s a little weird and a little hairy but it shouldn’t be a catastrophe.”
What will happen to Park?
It is almost certain Park, no longer subject to presidential immunity, will face charges in the corruption scandal that led to her impeachment, says Scott Snyder, senior fellow for Korean studies at the US-based Council of Foreign Relations, told CNN.
“Clearly she is going to face criminal prosecution and it’s just a matter of when,” Snyder said.
It’s not clear when Park will leave the Blue House, where she spent time as a child, as the daughter of former president Park Chung-hee, and as the country’s first female president.
Who will be the next President?
Liberal candidate Moon Jae-in from the opposition Democratic United Party is currently leading in opinion polls.
“Moon looks like the most likely candidate and unless something really unlikely happens, he’ll be sailing to be the next president,” Kim Hyung-a, associate professor at the Australia National University College of Asia and the Pacific, told CNN.
Moon was defeated narrowly by Park in the 2012 South Korean presidential election, losing by about 3% of the vote.
He was the chief of staff to former South Korean President Roh Moo-hyun and a strong proponent of the “Sunshine Policy”, which attempted to improve relations between the two Koreas from 1998 to 2008.
“(But) the North never really reciprocated,” Kelly said. “While South Korea was providing assistance to the North, they kept building nuclear weapons.”
Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon had been seen as a potential contender for the presidency, but announced in February he would not run.
Will this affect the United States?
Park’s dismissal changes the relationship between South Korea and the United States in one big way — the THAAD deployment just became a lot more complicated.
THAAD was due to be operational in South Korea by the end of 2017, during Park’s remaining presidency, but her removal from office has thrown that into question.
Both the South Korean and US governments have said THAAD is necessary to defend against North Korea, but the Chinese government has fiercely opposed its deployment.
Experts said the United States would not be happy if the timeline around the controversial missile defense system changed.
In the past South Korean liberals and the political opposition have questioned the value of the missile defense system to their country.
But after China’s resistance, Kelly said a left-wing South Korean president, such as Moon, would be far more conflicted.
“The left doesn’t think THAAD is that useful, it just provokes North Korea, but since China turned it into such a big deal now it looks like you’re letting China bully you (if you stop it),” he said.
“The left can’t look like they’ll take China’s orders.”
What about North Korea?
The other major difference in a new administration’s foreign policy could be North Korean relations.
Things are tense on the Korean peninsula — the North launched four ballistic missiles into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, less than a week before Park’s impeachment was confirmed.
Snyder said a Moon presidency could see a push for negotiations with North Korea, rather than the pressure and sanctions of the previous administration, creating further divisions with the United States.
“If you prioritize dialogue over pressure then that could open a gap between where I think the United States is going and where a new administration in South Korea might go,” he said.
But Kelly said the recent killing of Kim Jong Nam, which South Korea has blamed on North Korea, could make building negotiations even more difficult. North Korea has denied any involvement.
North Korean state news agency KCNA, on the news of Park’s dismissal, described her as a “common criminal.”
How did we get here?
Park’s downfall began in October, when CNN South Korean affiliate JTBC found an abandoned computer belonging to Park’s close friend and associate associate Choi Soon-sil.
On the laptop, they allegedly found evidence Choi had used her influence to intervene in state affairs, despite not being a government official.
The controversy quickly spiraled and soon Choi was in court, accused of abusing her relationship with Park to force million-dollar donations from South Korea’s largest companies.
Even Lee Jae-yong, Samsung’s de facto chief and prominent business leader, has been caught up in the turmoil. He is now facing a list of charges including bribery and embezzlement.
Despite three televised public apologies by Park, mass public protests continued to call for her impeachment.
In December she was officially impeached by the South Korean National Assembly in December, by an overwhelming vote of 234 to 56.
