What a difference nine months can make.
Last November, tensions between Ankara and Moscow ran high after Turkish forces shot a Russian warplane out of the sky near the Syrian border, resulting in the deaths of two airmen.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded furiously, describing the attack at the time as “a stab in the back delivered by the accomplices of terrorists.” Russian officials went further, accusing Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s family members of involvement in oil dealing with ISIS — allegations Erdogan strenuously denied.
But on Tuesday, as the two autocratic strongmen faced the media together ahead of bilateral talks in St. Petersburg, it was clear that their hot-and-cold relationship had taken a turn for the warmer.
Erdogan said that relations were “entering a positive phase,” while Putin spoke of how he had reached out quickly after the July 15 coup attempt which sought to topple the Turkish leader.
“I know I was one of the first people who called you on the phone and expressed my support in overcoming the internal political crisis and coup d’état,” he said.
The St. Petersburg visit is Erdogan’s first foreign trip since he saw off the failed challenge to his rule, and comes at a rocky period in Turkey’s relationship with its NATO allies in the West. So what are some of the issues in play?
Post-coup support for Turkey
The reboot of the relationship comes at a moment when Turkey is “increasingly isolated regionally and globally,” said Fadi Hakura, Turkey specialist at the Chatham House think tank in London.
Erdogan has taken umbrage at the response by Western allies to last month’s coup attempt, accusing them of failing to condemn those who mounted the coup, and being overly critical of the sweeping crackdown he launched in its wake. About 22,000 people have been arrested or detained by Turkish authorities following the failed takeover.
Erdogan also wants the US to hand over Fethullah Gulen, the US-based cleric he accuses of having masterminded the coup.
Russia holds no such concerns about the purge, and gives an important endorsement on the international stage of Ankara’s controversial crackdown, amid concerns over the mass detentions.
Putin underlined his position in St. Petersburg Tuesday.
“It is our principle position (that) we are always categorically against any attempts at unconstitutional deeds,” he said.
Relations with the West
Although Turkish officials deny it, Erdogan’s rapprochement with Moscow is also partly motivated by the desire to show his NATO allies that he has other potential friends on the international stage, said Hakura.
“He is trying to use Russia to gain leverage with the United States and Europe,” he said.
For Russia, fueling tensions within the NATO alliance is squarely within its interests, says Alexander Shimulin, of the US-Canada Institute in Moscow.
Turkey is in complicated negotiations with the EU over their deal in response to the migrant crisis.
Under the agreement enacted earlier this year, migrants who cross into Greece illegally are sent back to Turkey, while for every Syrian sent back to Turkey, a vetted Syrian refugee will go from Turkey to Europe to be resettled.
The deal also promised Turkey billions in funding as well as various political concessions, including visa-free travel for Turks in Europe.
As the negotiations have become rockier in the wake of the coup attempt, Turkey has threatened to cancel the deal over Europe’s delay in implementing the promised visa-waiver by October; German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel has spoken of “visa blackmail.”
Hakura said the deal could collapse, but Europe is better equipped to deal with the migrant challenge if it does, and was more likely to adopt a tougher line in their negotiations with Erdogan.
“I think the West understands Turkey’s near-total dependency on the West for its economic survival, security and its foreign policy,” he said.
“The more muscular Europe’s approach to Turkey, the more likely it is that the agreement will have a longer shelf life.
“Erdogan can threaten to huff and puff and threaten to blow the house down but at the end of the day it is a house made of bricks.”
By contrast, he said, Turkey’s relationship with Russia was “an alliance of convenience, not a strategic relationship.”
Syria and the war on terror
Both countries are also key players in the war in Syria — a topic that will be sure to feature in their discussions.
Greater cooperation in the theater of war would be in the interests of both sides, said Hakura.
But with both countries on opposite sides of the conflict in terms of their support of the Syrian regime, the scope for coordination is limited, he said.
“Turkey seeks regime change, Russia is in favor of regime stability. Those objectives are mutually exclusive,” he said.
Areas where there was potential for greater cooperation was in targeting their common enemy, ISIS, and potentially working to limit some of the violence in northern Syria, he said.
Erdogan in particular will be hoping to set out a new framework with Russia to boost Turkey’s “quite diminished influence” in the conflict, he said.
Economy
Erdogan will also be looking for Russia to lift the remaining trade and economic sanctions imposed in the wake of last year’s shootdown.
Russia is an important trading partner for Turkey, and an important supplier of energy.
Russia imposed a ban on agricultural imports from Turkey following the incident, as well as a ban on charter flights between the countries, which reduced the flow of Russian tourists into Turkey to a trickle, hurting a sector also suffering the impact of a string of terror attacks across the country.
“Turkey needed to restore economic and trade ties to Russia. Turkey needs Russian tourists to flow back to the Turkish resorts,” Hakura told CNN, while emphasizing that economic ties with the West remained more crucial to Turkey.
“It would be economic suicide as well as detrimental to Turkey’s security interests to rupture its ties with the West,” he said.
