After a very rough few weeks, Donald Trump attempted to right his campaign with some dramatic changes in the past week. He fired his campaign manager, put new emphasis on raising money and used a teleprompter in his speech against the Clintons.
Trump may have benefited from a Supreme Court ruling that effectively blocked President Obama’s immigration executive actions. And some have interpreted the UK’s vote in favor of Brexit as confirmation that Trump’s conservative-populist style of nativist, anti-free trade politics has international appeal.
The next crucial moment in the campaign will take place when Trump picks his vice presidential candidate. In Scotland, Trump said that he is getting “a lot of calls” from people interested in the job. The Trump campaign is hoping for a big bump, a game-change candidate who will inject the narrative with a new story line. Although there is still a belief that the right pick can fundamentally change the race, most of the social science research into vice presidential selections shows this is usually not the case.
And so the most important part of the pick is to avoid selecting someone who causes problems for the campaign. Trump can’t afford another Sarah Palin, whose disastrous media rollout only weighted down John McCain’s already sagging campaign.
Even if it doesn’t move the needle much, the vice presidential selection can help compensate for some of the problems and concerns that voters have about a nominee. In Trump’s case this is especially important, given how unprecedented and unpredictable his candidacy is.
Ironically, even though Trump hasn’t released his own tax returns, as he vets candidates he is asking to see their tax returns, hoping to avoid selecting anyone with questionable finances. But finding someone with a solid financial record is only one part of the equation. Given the many questions about his candidacy, Trump needs to make a high-level selection if he wants to strengthen his faltering campaign.
Here are the characteristics that Trump should be looking for:
1. Someone who can govern and understands policy
This is the most urgent need for the Trump campaign. He needs to find another Dick Cheney whose surprise selection in 2000 greatly strengthened George W. Bush’s effort to push back against attacks from Vice President Al Gore that he lacked sufficient knowledge about policy or governance. Cheney caused many problems for Bush once he was president, but in 2000, he greatly strengthened the campaign. Among those whose names have been floated are former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, Tennessee Senator Bob Corker and Governor Chris Christie, all of whom could add this dimension to the ticket.
2. Someone who can raise money
It appears that Trump has finally started to raise money after the startling announcement that he only had a little over a million dollars in his campaign fund. But many top Republican donors remain extremely hesitant to turn over their dollars. Even with free air time and a “lean and mean operation,” the fact is that a presidential candidate needs a huge amount of money to win in a 50-state race. Iowa Senator Joni Ernst is one possible choice if Trump decides to go with someone who is close to the Koch brothers and could help get them to open up their wallets.
3. Someone who can withstand the media onslaught
Trump needs remember what happened to Palin in 2008. When she faced the media onslaught that followed her announcement, the results were devastating. She was unable to handle the most basic questions. Palin became a punchline for comedians on late night and Tina Fey’s impression on “Saturday Night Live.” That’s nothing compared to what could be coming when Trump makes his announcement. Given the immense media scrutiny of this campaign and the deep questions that exist about his candidacy, his pick will face a barrage of questions in the weeks that follow the convention. If he or she stumbles and proves unable to handle the heat, it could prove a huge problem.
4. Someone who counteracts xenophobia, racism, sexism
Trump has succeeded by playing to some of the nastiest elements of the electorate. If Trump picks someone who compounds these problems rather than offers evidence that is not what he is about, this will continue to descend into a replay of George Wallace. He needs to pick someone like his former competitor Marco Rubio or New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez who embodies stability, diversity, moderation and toleration, at least relative to others in the GOP.
5. Someone with appeal in Pennsylvania and Ohio
Donald Trump will need to take a number of swing states, or increasingly unstable Blue states, from the Democrats to win the Electoral College. Unless there are dramatic shifts of opinion, the current electoral math will be very difficult for him to overcome. If the map stays the same as in 2012, Hillary Clinton will only need to win one swing state to take the election. Essential to his success will be to fulfill his ongoing promise to win in states like Pennsylvania, Ohio and even New Jersey. This is where he will need to pick a vice presidential candidate like Ohio Governor John Kasich, who can draw political support from dissatisfied Democratic voters.
This could be one of the more consequential vice presidential choices in history. Trump’s decision could very well dictate if he can seriously compete against the Clinton juggernaut.
The big challenge that he faces with this selection isn’t just who he picks—but whether anyone really wants the job. Even as he tried to fix his campaign, his toxic comments keep scaring most Republicans away from aligning their fortunes with him. A new Washington Post/ABC News poll reports that Clinton now has a double-digit national lead on her opponent, with a stunning two in three Americans believing that he is unqualified for the job.
More prominent Republicans, including former Secretary of Treasury Henry Paulson and columnist George Will, have announced that they will not vote for Trump. In the end it might be that Trump will have to let go of seeking the best criteria for a VP and just choose whoever will say yes.
