A new poll of Georgia voters shows Donald Trump leading Hillary Clinton by just four points in the reliably Republican state — that’s within the poll’s margin of error, but an example of how a historic general election match-up between deeply polarizing nominees is reshaping the electoral map.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, released this weekend, finds Trump ahead of Clinton 45% to 41%, with a margin of error of 4.26 points. Georgia has voted Republican in every election since 1992, when it went for Bill Clinton.
An increasingly familiar trend is driving the tight race between Clinton and Trump: the sharp gender gap.
Among Georgia women, 63% have an unfavorable impression of Trump, while among Georgia men it’s the reverse, as 66% have an unfavorable impression of Clinton. Given the choice between the two, women back Clinton over Trump 44% to 42%, while men back Trump over Clinton 48% to 39%.
But even as Clinton and Trump look to capitalize on this divide, the poll reveals that voters’ distaste for the alternative doesn’t mean they like the candidate they’ll support. Fifty-three percent of men have an unfavorable impression of Trump, and 58% of women say the same about Clinton.
Wide demographic splits also fuel the statewide divide. White voters back Trump over Clinton by nearly 60 points, 67% to 19%. But more than three-quarters of black and nonwhite Georgians say they would vote for Clinton.
The poll also found that Bernie Sanders, Clinton’s remaining Democratic challenger, matches up even better against Trump in the deep-red state. Sanders would beat Trump 47% to 41% in Georgia, due in part to his ability to outperform Clinton among white voters there.
The poll was conducted May 9-12 among 822 registered voters.
