It’s enough to make even the most seasoned Brazilian political watcher’s head spin.
The mess that is Brazil’s current political situation took another twist Monday when the new chief of parliament’s lower house said he wanted to strike down impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff.
The motion to impeach Rousseff was first initiated in December, and in April the lower house of parliament voted overwhelmingly to begin proceedings.
Parliament’s upper house — the Senate — is supposed to vote on it Wednesday.
But, in a move that angered and bewildered many, the lower house leader — Waldir Maranhao — called for an annulment of last month’s vote.
That’s a bold move for a man that’s only been in the job for a few days. Last week Brazil’s Supreme Court suspended his predecessor — the man who initiated impeachment proceedings.
To make matters murkier, Senate leader Renan Calheiros said that the upper chamber didn’t “recognize” Maranhao’s motion, indicating that senators would press on with their vote regardless.
What will happen next is anyone’s guess — if anything, because it’s completely unprecedented.
So what exactly is going on?
When did this all start, and what did Rousseff do?
Allegations of corruption have been dogging her administration since 2011. A sweeping corruption investigation into a multimillion-dollar kickback scheme at the state-run oil company Petrobras embroiled dozens of the country’s leading businessmen and politicians — and while she isn’t accused directly of profiting, Rousseff was the chairwoman of Petrobras during many of the years that the alleged corruption took place.
In December, a bid to impeach President Rousseff was launched by the speaker of the country’s lower house of Congress, Eduardo Cunha, who argued that Rousseff is guilty of breaking budgetary laws by borrowing from state banks to cover a shortfall in the country’s deficit and pay for social programs in the run up to her re-election in 2014.
She has been also blamed for the worst recession in decades, now in its second year.
“I will fight to survive, not just for my term in office,” Rousseff told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour last month. “But I will fight, because what I am advocating and defending is the democratic principle that governs political life in Brazil.”
If impeachment proceedings continue as planned, how will they play out?
If the vote for an impeachment trial against her had gone unimpeded through the Senate, she was just 48 hours away from having to step aside from her position for a period of six months while she was investigated, and would spend the time preparing her defense. In that case, Brazilian Vice President Michel Temer will temporarily take the reins until November, when the process will return to a special Senate committee.
At that point Rousseff will have 20 days to present her case. Following that, a final determination will be voted on by that committee and then presented for a vote to the full Senate.
It will take a two-thirds majority to remove the president from office.
Who are the key players?
Dilma Rousseff is the current president of Brazil, a former revolutionary and resistance member who was jailed and allegedly tortured in the early 1970s. A former minister for mines and energy, she took office in 2010 as Brazil’s first female president. She was handpicked by the popular President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, universally known as Lula, and enjoyed a period of popularity before corruption scandals mired her second term in office.
Her predecessor, Lula, is a founding member of Brazil’s only socialist political party, Partido dos Trabalhadores, the Workers’ Party. He left office with a 90% approval rating but was questioned by police probing potentially damning corruption claims in March 2016. He staunchly denies the claims.
Vice-President Michel Temer will assume the presidency for the time that Rousseff is obliged to step aside, if impeachment process gets that far. Temer’s party, the Brazilian Democratic Movement Party, or PMDB, has also been implicated in the corruption scheme and could be further weakened by the ongoing investigation.
An outspoken critic of Rousseff, Eduardo Cunha was the speaker of Brazil’s lower house and the man who initiated impeachment proceedings. He was removed from his position in early May by the Supreme Court.
He was replaced by Waldir Maranhao, who called for the annulment of the move to impeach Rousseff.
However, his counterpart in the upper house, Renan Calheiros, has dismissed the motion and says that the proceedings would carry on as planned.
What is likely to happen next?
Legal experts told CNN and CNN affiliate TV Record that the annulment of the lower house vote could be overturned by Brazil’s Supreme Court. Lawmakers could also challenge it themselves and demand that it be put to a vote immediately in the lower house, the experts said.
It is highly unlikely that the upper house will bow to Maranhao’s demands, meaning that the motion will be little more than a roadblock. It may delay proceedings but otherwise the Senate vote is scheduled to take place Wednesday.
If and when that house votes to carry on proceedings, Rousseff will step aside, and all eyes will look ahead to November when she will need to defend herself.
Whatever happens, it is unlikely to be an entirely smooth process. Rousseff’s supporters have vowed to take to the streets in retaliation, ensuring a long, and potentially messy, battle ahead.
What else will this affect?
The country is facing challenges on numerous fronts, from dealing with the Zika virus to the 2016 Olympics, which are due to open in Rio in early August. Due to her obligations to step aside during the impeachment process, she could be sidelined when then games begin, something she has worked for since the beginning of the bid process.
Not only that, the country faces a crippling recession that has left hundreds of thousands unemployed — close to 10% — and thousands of businesses closed. It’s sent inflation through the roof. The weak Brazilian Real, which Olympics organizers are hoping will attract Olympic tourism, spiked briefly on Monday’s announcement before resettling.
