News that Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich are now in league with each other in their efforts to deny Donald Trump a majority of GOP delegates before the Republican National Convention had a real and immediate impact on Trump’s odds on CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
Trump’s odds to be the nominee fell from 75% to 68% in the hours after the story broke, according to the market, which relies on the predictions of more than 100,000 players in addition to polling and other data.
The biggest impact the plan has on Trump’s nomination odds is in Indiana, where Cruz has gone from 49% to 63% to win. Indiana awards its delegates on a winner-take-all basis statewide and in their nine congressional districts, so a win for Cruz would be vital for stopping Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates needed to win the nomination.
The actual swings were bigger in Oregon and New Mexico, but they award their delegates proportionally so the effect on Trump’s projected delegate total is minimal. Kasich went from 6% to 49% to win Oregon, and from 5% to 42% to win New Mexico — but remains at just 1% to win the nomination.
Trump is still very strong in the the ‘Acela primary’ slate of primary contests on Tuesday, however, where there are 172 delegates up for grabs for the Republicans and 462 delegates for the Democrats.
Here’s a look at the state of the primary markets for the GOP and the Democrats, as the battles for the nomination continue and voters in five states in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic prepare to go to polls Tuesday.
The Republican primaries
Trump enjoys strong odds in all of Tuesday’s primaries. As with his strong performance in New York, the question on Tuesday, at least according to the Political Prediction Market, is not whether Trump will win, but by how large a margin. Four of the five contests are winner-take-most, so the larger the win for Trump, the more delegates he can claim in his quest for 1,237.
Trump continues to poll well in the Rust Belt states. Recent polls suggest he has a nearly 20 percentage point lead in Pennsylvania. That lead translates into 97% odds to win the Pennsylvania primary on Tuesday, according to the Political Prediction Market. Those are his lowest odds of the five primaries. Trump’s odds across the other April 26 contests:
* 99% in Maryland
* 98% in Rhode Island
* 99% in Connecticut
* 99% in Delaware
Delegate Math: Only 17 of Pennsylvania’s 71 delegates are bound to support the state’s winning candidate. If Trump wins by a significant margin, it could make the unbound delegates less likely to vote for another candidate at the convention in July. The odds are not only in Trump’s favor to win, but to add a large number of delegates to his current count of 844. Every delegate counts at this point, and a sweep of five states will be important for Trump’s effort to secure 1,237 delegates and the nomination.
75% odds to win the Nomination: Trump’s odds to be the nominee have climbed steadily since April 14. He is +25 points over the last week and a half, and currently has 75% odds to win the GOP nomination. The NY primary win delivered a major boost for Trump among the crowd, who have sent his odds to lead the GOP ticket soaring.
GOP Market Ripple Effect Continues: As Trump has secured a handful of victories, the odds of a contested GOP convention have plummeted since April 11, down 44 points from 82% to just 38% odds today. The correlation continues to be strong between Trump’s wins and market drops for the GOP.
The ripple effect doesn’t stop there, either. The odds Republicans retain their Senate Majority are down 32 points over the last two months; GOP odds were at 84% on February 23, and now 52% today. It appears that the crowd grows less certain of the Republican party’s odds to secure victories, as they grow more secure in the odds Trump wins the party nomination.
Hoosier State: The next close contest for the GOP is Indiana on May 3, which looks to be a toss-up, with Trump at 54% and Cruz at 46% odds to win. Cruz lost a sizable lead in this market — he was at 85% odds on April 6, but recent losses have hurt his chances here. The latest polling echoes the market, showing just a small margin between the two. What’s key: Indiana is a winner-take-all state, with 57 delegates going to the victor.
California surge for Trump: Beyond Pennsylvania, the biggest contest for the GOP is California’s primary on June 7, with 171 delegates up for grabs. Trump is up 22 points since April 7, now at 75% odds to win the primary. Cruz is looking strong in several Midwest and mountain states (98% odds in Montana, 97% in Nebraska and 94% in South Dakota, respectively) but these contests offer smaller numbers of delegates by comparison.
Trump has higher odds to beat Clinton: The odds show that Trump would have a better chance in the general election against Clinton than Ted Cruz. Trump is currently given a 16% chance to be president and a 75% chance to be the nominee, which implies he is only 21% to win the general election. Cruz has even lower odds with a 16% chance to win the general. It is important to note, however, that both GOP candidates would be big underdogs to Clinton in the general.
The Democratic contest
Like Trump, Hillary Clinton looks strong across the boards for Tuesday’s contests. The former secretary of state’s odds for April 26 are:
* 90% to win Pennsylvania
* 98% to win Maryland
* 89% to win Connecticut
* 85% in Rhode Island
* 92% in Delaware
Clinton hit record-high odds across many of the markets for Tuesday on April 21, following her victory in the New York primary.
Clinton’s Odds to be next president hit high of 78%: Clinton’s wins — combined with movement in the GOP nomination markets — have yielded a positive impact on key markets.
The Democrats continue to also see strong market performance in odds to be the winning party for POTUS, now at 80%, an all-time high. In the next U.S. president market, Clinton is enjoying another all-time high of 78%, up 4 points following the New York primary. Clinton’s odds to be the nominee have rebounded to 96% this week as well.
As the nation makes its way through the full slate of primary contests over the next few months, the numbers are with Trump and Clinton. The markets continue to highlight trends and forecast the movements in the key races ahead of what we are seeing in primary polling. You can follow all of the market moves at www.cnn.com/predict.
