Last week, we took a look at the American League. Today, we begin to look at the NL, starting with the West. The division has been dominated by the Dodgers and Giants in recent years; with so much roster change, will that trend continue?
LA Dodgers (92-70, +72 run differential in 2015)
ADDED: SP Kenta Maeda (Japan),
LOST: SP Zack Grienke, SS Jimmy Rollins, RP Juan Nicasio
Outlook: I believe that this team is in for some trouble in 2016. Not only did they lose the defending Cy Young winner to a divisional rival – they are decimated by injury already. The following players are projected to miss Opening Day: Grandal (starting catcher), Kendrick (starting 2B), Ethier (supersub OF), and Anderson (starter). Right now their rotation is Kershaw and a whole lot of unknowns. Yes, they have young talent on offense in SS Kyle Seager and 3B Justin Turner…and yes, perhaps Puig gets his head on straight and resumes star status. I think the more likely scenario has this team in a real dogfight for a playoff berth, with a sub-.500 record possible if they lose any more key players.
San Francisco (84-78, +69 run differential in 2015)
ADDED: CF Denard Span, SP Johnny Cueto, SP Jeff Samardzija
LOST: LF Nori Aoki, SP/RP Tim Lincecum, RP Ryan Vogelsong, SP Tim Hudson
Outlook: The Giants seem to have bought into the ‘even year’ thing as well, since they really went all-out to improve for 2016. Cueto + Samardzija represent (potentially) a massive improvement over Hudson/Vogelsong/Lincecum, and Span will more than make up for the loss of Aoki.
The fact is, this is a good offense, even with low power numbers. They have above-average hitters at every position except LF, and a perennial MVP candidate in Posey. Factor in their resident ace in Bumgarner and the return to health of Hunter Pence – and the losses the Dodgers took – and it’s pretty easy to make the case for the G-Men.
Arizona (79-83, +7 run differential in 2015)
ADDED: SP Zack Grienke, SP Shelby Miller, SS Jean Segura, RP Tyler Clippard
LOST: SP Jeremy Hellickson, SP Chase Anderson, SS/2B Aaron Hill
Outlook: Most teams are thrilled to add one ace – the Dbacks went out and got two. Grienke you know about – he was amazing for the Dodgers last year – but Miller was sensational in his own right, his fine season masked by poor run support while pitching for an awful Braves team (he went 6-17 despite a fine 3.02 ERA). Rubby De La Rosa was stretched badly as a #1/#2, but he’s an excellent #4, and young Robbie Ray should come into his own as a well-above average #3 starter for AZ. Adding Clippard offers insurance against closer Brad Zeigler’s low strikeout totals.
For me, the question is really the offense – they have great talents in Goldschmidt and Pollock, but the rest of the infield is a huge question mark. Segura hasn’t hit in two years, second base was a HUGE hole a season ago, and while Jake Lamb is still young, he needs to show some pop soon or become a bust.
Expect regression from Grienke – he isn’t going to put up a sub-2.00 ERA in that ballpark – but the rotation has become a huge strength and should keep AZ in contention all summer.
San Diego (74-88, -81 run differential in 2015)
ADDED: SS Alexi Ramirez, CF John Jay, RP Carlos Villanueva, RP Fernando Rodney
LOST: OF Justin Upton, SS Clint Barmes, 2B Jedd Gyorko, 1B Yonder Alonso, SP Ian Kennedy, RP Craig Kimbrel, RP Joaquin Beniot
Outlook: This is what happens when you make the big gamble and fail. New GM AJ Preller made all sorts of unorthodox moves a year ago, most of which did not pan out – so he went young this winter. Gone are most of the starting infield, their best hitter, and the dominating closer he traded so much for in 2014. Ramirez, Jay, Rodney and Villanueva are stopgap solutions – this is a team in transition now. The real changes are coming from within, in the form of young talent. 2B will be manned by Cory Spangenberg, and the rotation will be bolstered by prospects Robbie Erlin and Colin Rea.
Considering their home park – the most pitcher-friendly in the majors – their pitching was a disaster in 2015. In that park, their ‘raw’ runs allowed should be in the top-3 to contend…instead they were 10th in the NL. Rea and Erlin should help that figure, but as we know young pitchers tend to be unpredictable.
Offensively, the team is not very good. The two best on-base percentages in 2015 belonged to Alonso and Upton – and none of the new faces figure to match their production. This is a team that will likely struggle to score runs until they add a few more talented bats.
Overall, the Padres are stuck in the wrong place at the wrong time – they aren’t bad enough to ‘tank’ and compete for the #1 draft pick, especially when 1/3 of the league seems to actively be trying to do so; on the other hand, they are nowhere near talented enough to realistically challenge the ‘big three’ in the division. Looks like another long season in sunny San Diego.
Colorado (68-94, -107 run differential in 2015)
ADDED: LF Gerardo Parra, RP Jason Motte, RP Chad Qualls
LOST: 1B Justin Morneau, SP Kyle Kendrick, RP John Axford
Outlook: What a mess this franchise is right now. On the surface they appear to have a pretty good offense – after all, they led the league in runs! TWO 40-homer guys! BUT, two problems: #1 in that park, it’s not enough to lead the league in runs. You need to score like it’s 1999 all over again – in Colorado, 850-900 runs is the figure needed to really compete, because the thin air skews everything. Here, as we did last year, check out their home road splits as a team:
HOME: .302/.352/.489, 449 runs
ROAD:Â .228/.277/.375, 288 runs
They scored 5.5 runs per game at home, a paltry 3.5 on the road. For the season combined, they scored only 737, while allowing 845.
#2 They don’t walk nearly enough. Even with all those runs and hits at home, they ranked only 13th in on-base% in the league. That leads to far too many solo homers at Coors Field, while the opposition is lighting up the scoreboard with 2- and 3-run shots almost every game.
With the trade of Tulowitzki last summer, they are officially rebuilding-again. Their pitching is an absolute disaster (Chad Qualls? Really? You bring in a 37-year old who already is 60% washed up and put him in Coors? I’m sure that will end well), and given their horrid track record trying to develop pitching I see no hope for anything different anytime soon. Oh, they’ll compete at home, win 35-40 of those games…but they will lose 50+ on the road as usual, and once again be among the worst teams in the league.
PREDICTIONS:
#5 Colorado 63-66 wins – see above.
#4 San Diego 69-74 wins – they could possibly surprise if the young pitching is solid, but that’s a real long shot.
#3 Los Angeles 80-84 wins – I’m out of step with the experts here, I know it, I just see a real collapse possibility here. So much now depends on Kershaw, Gonzalez, and Puig to make this a contender…I just believe one of those three will have an off year due to injury or aging or both.
#2 Arizona 92-95 wins – there is going to be a HUGE split this year between the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’ in the NL this year, because so many NL teams are losing on purpose. I count at least five (COL, MIL, CIN, ATL, PHI) and depending on what happens early on in SD, they may try it as well. That means more wins available for the upper echelon, which in turn should mean it takes more wins to truly compete this year. I have the Dbacks with 92+ wins, mainly because they dramatically upgraded their rotation – and I still think they will face a battle for the wildcard.
#1 San Francisco 97-100 wins – again, inflated by the number of bad teams. I am bullish on their rotation, although there’s a fair amount of injury risk with Cueto. I like their rotation a lot more than LA’s, and their lineup is better than Arizona’s. They certainly seem to know what they are doing in the SF front office.
Later this week: The NL East.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.
