Here’s the state of play on CNN’s Political Prediction market headed into the key primaries in what some people are calling “Super Tuesday 3:” Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina.
Sanders is on fire after his upset in Michigan
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders had just a 4% chance to win the Democratic nomination on Pivit heading into Michigan primary March 8, but has rallied up to 15% odds in the seven days since then. His upset victory in Michigan only gave him nine more delegates than Clinton from that state, 68 to 59, but it showed he might have a realistic shot at beating Clinton in future primaries where he previously appeared to have no chance.
Clinton, who has won decisively in southern states, still holds a healthy lead in the overall delegate count. But in specific rust belt states Sanders’ odds have increased. He’s gone from 6% to 48% odds of winning in Ohio, 25% to 44% in Missouri, and 2% to 45% odds of winning the primary in Illinois, according to the Political Prediction Market.
Sanders is still only 6% odds to win North Carolina and 2% to win Florida, but if he can win three out of five states and stay close in Florida and North Carolina it will be a huge day for his campaign, even if it does not chip away at Clinton’s overall delegate lead.
Trump vs. Cruz
Although much of the focus on the Republican side has been on primaries in Ohio and Florida — and rightly so, since those contests award all of their delegates to the winner — there are still three other important races today between Trump and his main competitor, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz starts the day with 20% odds of winning Missouri, a 15% chance to win North Carolina, and a 13% chance to win Illinois. If we assume that the results in each race aren’t correlated with each other, that gives Cruz a 40% chance to win at least one of those states tonight.
Usually when a candidate outperforms or under performs in one state, it will effect his or her results in other primaries, which works as a positive for Cruz. With his current 100 delegate deficit to Trump, he can’t afford to slowly try to chip away at Trump’s lead, so he will be rooting for as much volatility as possible over the coming months.
Kasich & Rubio
Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are both in a similar position in that they both need to win their home states tonight to have any shot at winning the nomination, but Kasich is in a much better position than Rubio, according to the Political Prediction Market. His odds to win Ohio rose from 60% to 84% this weekend where they currently still stand. Rubio on the other hand is down to just 3% to win Florida after suffering distant fourth place finishes in Michigan and Mississippi on Super Tuesday 2.
