Marco Rubio’s focus on Virginia, an early test of the “Trump effect” and who’s getting revved up for a political fight involving the Supreme Court nominee: All that and more fill our “Inside Politics” forecast.
1) Virginia is for — Rubio?
Marco Rubio is campaigning in Virginia on Sunday — and results there on Tuesday could offer firm clues as to whether his comeback strategy has any real chance of success.
Why Virginia?
Jonathan Martin of The New York Times points to the state’s demographics — especially the healthy number of highly educated suburban Republicans. If Rubio can’t trump Donald Trump with those voters, well then, things look bleak.
“If he can perform well, you’re going to see him possibly do as well in Ohio and Florida on March 15. … If Trump steamrolls in the Commonwealth, it’s going to be a tough, tough day for Rubio.”
2) A big Clinton win eases pressure on the President
Officially, President Obama is neutral in the Democratic presidential contest. And there will be less pressure to change that now that Hillary Clinton has a big win in South Carolina.
Julie Pace of The Associated Press took us inside the pressures the President and his political team were facing if Clinton had struggled Saturday.
“There was a feeling, as Clinton was stumbling through Iowa and New Hampshire, among Democrats close to the President that if she were to continue stumbling with black voters, that would push the President toward an early endorsement, specifically to bring those voters along. “
3) The Supreme Court vacancy coming to a TV near you
Senate Republicans say there is no way they will schedule a confirmation vote for Obama’s choice to fill the new Supreme Court vacancy.
But that doesn’t mean the political battle won’t spill into the political advertising wars.
CNN’s Manu Raju shared reporting about the plans of conservative groups to attack the President’s choice — with the intention of also helping vulnerable Republican senators taking heat for tactics the White House labels obstructionist.
“Republican outside groups are already digging dirt on any potential nominee. America Rising, the opposition research firm, has been hired by the Judicial Crisis Network, which is already airing ads in a lot of these states for Republican senators. The effort involves not just defining this nominee, countering the White House’s narrative, but also giving cover to those blue-state Republicans. And also sending a message to any nominee that this is going to be the absolute worst job in Washington.”
4) Trump looks to prove he can attract black and Latino voters
One of the big knocks on Donald Trump is that he would have a hard time attracting African-Americans and Latinos if he is the Republican nominee.
Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Preibus, for example, has in recent conversations with Trump reminded him — CNN is told — that the party needs to improve its standing with nonwhite voters and that perception matters as much as policy. In other words: Please be careful about your rhetoric.
CNN’s Nia-Malika Henderson took us inside a debate that will only intensify if Trump continues his success in the nomination contest.
Henderson says there has been “lots of chatter, especially among Trump supporters, about how well Trump would do among African-American and Latino voters. … I looked at some numbers. A Quinnipiac poll shows Trump in a hypothetical matchup (with) Hillary Clinton, and (Trump) would get about 12% of the black vote. (He would also get) about 17% of the Hispanic vote.”
5) Super Tuesday offers a test of the ‘Trump effect’ down-ballot
Super Tuesday offers Donald Trump a huge opportunity to build his delegate lead in the Republican nomination battle. And it’s also a key early test of the “Trump effect” on other races.
Trump is drawing new voters to the process, and that worries some House Republicans who are facing primary challenges. These incumbents figure Trump voters are more likely to support tea party challengers.
Where to watch? The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent money in the Alabama districts of GOP Reps. Bradley Byrne and Martha Roby, both of whom face challenges viewed as credible.
And GOP sources say GOP Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, whose district is in the Houston area, has voiced concern in the past week that an influx of Trump voters could impact what was not considered to be a serious primary challenge.
A leading GOP strategist tracking House races voiced optimism all three incumbents were in good shape, but said those races would serve as a good early test of how Trump voters might impact down-ballot contests as the primary season moves on.
