(NOTE – article was written on 2/19)
The last time I wrote about the Pens, they were in turmoil – they were languishing in the standings, the offense was among the worst in the league, and they had just fired their coach. They have now played an equal number of games (28) under each coach – so how do they compare today to Dec 13, the day Mike Sullivan replaced Mike Johnston?
At first glance, it appears that not much has changed. The team’s record under Johnston was 15-10-3, good for 33 points. Under Sullivan the team’s record is 14-9-5, good for…exactly the same points as Johnston earned. With 66 total points, the Pens sit today in the eighth spot in the Eastern Conference, barely in the playoffs with plenty of competition from the likes of the Devils, Senators, and even the Hurricanes.
However, as we dig deeper, there are definitely some differences. First off, I think it’s fair to note that the team started 0-4 under Sullivan, and were only 2-5-2 under him through 12/30. To that point, the team looked remarkably similar to Johnston’s regime – good defense, mostly very close games, and incredible difficulty scoring. I was at the 12/30 game and it was a VERY frustrating experience – the Pens seemed to dominate play, but could not score, and ended up losing in overtime to a poor Toronto squad.
After 12/30, though, something changed. They beat the Red Wings the next night 5-2, overcoming a 2-goal deficit in the process. The next game they downed the Islanders by the same 5-2 score. Those games marked only the second and third times all season that Pittsburgh scored 5+ goals. To that point, Pittsburgh had been held to one goal or less 12 times in 37 games, and to two goals or less in 22 of 37! For a team built around offensive stars, that was simply unthinkable.
From 12/31 through their last game on 2/18, the Pens have scored 5+ goals seven times, and been held to two goals or less only eight times in 19 games. There have still been some struggles – the recent three goals in three games vs. NY, Carolina, and Florida comes to mind – but even then, you get the sense that the team is ‘buying in’ more and is FAR more aggressive under Sullivan.
One Penguin who clearly has ‘bought in’ is the captain. Crosby languished under Johnston, with only six goals and 19 points in his first 28 games. After failing to record a point in his first two games under Sullivan, Sid caught fire – he has scored 19 goals and 36 points in Sullivan’s 28 games. It’s hard for me to understand, frankly, what caused this sudden shift other than Crosby’s attitude – he didn’t appear to be injured before the change, and for the most part his role and linemates have not changed. What is undeniable is that he’s going to the ‘dirty areas’ in front of and around the net a lot more, he’s shooting more, and he’s skating harder than I can remember since 2013.
The power play has also markedly improved. Under Johnston the Pens had the worst PP in the league for much of the season, and were 15-for-96 when he was fired (15.6%) – again, inexplicable and unacceptable for a team with this much talent. Under Sullivan, the PP started 0-10 but has since gone 20-for 75 (26.6%).
Now, to be fair, some of this improvement was likely simply regression to the mean. The team had a HORRID shooting percentage early on, and sooner or later some ‘puck luck’ was going to go Pittsburgh’s way. I think it’s fair to say that the team wasn’t QUITE as bad under Johnston as they appeared offensively…but there’s also no escaping the conclusion that Sullivan’s system and coaching have made a big difference. When Sid is rolling, this team is VERY tough to beat, and he’s rolling under ‘Sully’.
There are some troubling changes as well – the one that worries me the most is goals against. Under Johnston, this was one of the stingiest teams in the NHL, ranking in the top-3 in goals against. I can count the number of 2-on-1’s and breakaways the team allowed on one hand. Under Sullivan, there’s been a LOT more risk-taking, and that’s been reflected in the scores – both for and against. For example, under Johnston the team held the opposition to two or less goals 14 times, and allowed 4+ goals only four times. Under Sullivan, teams have been held to two or less 13 times, but opponents have scored 4+ goals seven times. As a result, while the Pens still have an elite penalty kill (fourth in the league), they have dropped to ninth in goals against…and have still only outscored opponents by four goals.
Scoring depth also remains a MAJOR issue. The team only has five players with 10+ goals or 30+ points – and only three players on pace for even 20 goals! I understand injuries have played a role in this, and the return of Bonino, Fehr, and Bennett will undoubtedly help – but look at Washington, for example: eight players with 30+ points, eight players with 12+ goals, and seven players on-pace for 20+ goals. They have three full lines of scoring threats, while Pittsburgh barely has two.
There is some good news on the lower lines – finally, some young, home-grown talent. The ‘Wilkes-Barre’ fourth line of Sheary, Wilson, and Porter have generated a lot of chances (if not a lot of goals) and kept opponents hemmed in their own end for long stretches. Sheary is seeing PP time, while Porter is an effective penalty killer. This is a great 4th-line for postseason action and I hope the line remains intact even after the injured veterans return. In addition, the trade of David Perron for Carl Hagelin has injected even more speed into the lineup. Combine that speed with Sid’s resurgence, Kessel’s wheels, and the new kids, and it’s easy to conclude that this group of forwards is perhaps the fastest in Penguin history. Speed doesn’t equal scoring, but in the postseason – as the Rangers showed the last two seasons – speed = pressure, and pressure leads to mistakes. Assuming Bonino and Fehr return healthy – AND assuming Malkin comes back soon – this should be a group capable of standing toe-to-toe with just about any Eastern Conference foe. However, despite all that speed, this is still a star-driven team. This Penguins team will go as far as 87, 71, 58, and 29 take it.
On defense, the team was upgraded with perhaps the heist of the year – sending (since-waived) Rob Scuderi away to Chicago was a victory in and of itself, but to get back a mobile, savvy defenseman like Trevor Daley was unbelievable. Daley has already scored four goals and 11 points – and while he’s not GREAT in his own end, he’s a lot better than Scuds was the last couple of years. Combine his arrival with the sublime play of Letang and the emergence of young Derrick Pouliot, and suddenly the defense corps looks fairly promising – assuming, of course, that Letang avoinds injury.
So what’s the verdict? This is still a flawed team, make no mistake – for all their speed, they still can struggle when Sid is contained. Bonino and Fehr HAVE to provide more secondary scoring when they return, and Fleury has to keep playing at a high level. Barring injury, though, this team looks to me to be as good as any outside of Washington and I think they should get into the playoffs fairly comfortably. One key is to avoid the #8 seed, which would mean a first-round date with the Caps. The #7 seed would be MUCH better, as the team matches up well with whoever wins the Atlantic.
One key will be division performance – the majority of the team’s remaining games are within their division, affording them many opportunities to catch the Rangers or Islanders head-to-head. Of course, if they struggle in those games, or against the Devils, they could still easily miss the postseason dance. Win or lose, though, Sullivan has undeniably accomplished one thing – he’s made the Pens fun to watch again.
Next week, the Eye climbs out of hibernation to begin baseball previews.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.
