A “cessation of hostilities” negotiated by major world powers is set to take effect Friday in Syria. But as the situation on the battlefield of northern Syria grows ever more confused and complex, there seems little chance that a ceasefire — by whatever name — will take hold.
The agreement calls for a pause in fighting, along with accelerated and expanded delivery of humanitarian aid.
Though it’s not clear whether the warring sides will go ahead with the plan and lay down their arms, the days leading up to Friday did see some good news. Aid convoys reached five besieged Syrian towns and delivered food to more than 80,000 people, according to the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP).
“This marks a major humanitarian breakthrough in Syria, but we must remember that one-off and sporadic convoys can only provide temporary relief to hungry, desperate people,” said Jakob Kern, the WFP’s director for Syria. “People need to eat every single day.”
The aid group said its team in the Damascus suburb of Moadamiya — which the U.N. says it hasn’t been able to resupply in two years — found people living off of grass and rice. It said rice sells for more than 50 times its price in Damascus.
‘Put up or shut up’
The agreement was negotiated on February 12 in Munich, Germany, among diplomats from more than a dozen countries, including the United States and Russia.
“This is a test,” said Staffan de Mistura, the U.N. secretary-general’s special envoy for Syria. “It is a test on what was decided in Munich. In Munich, it was clearly a commitment by everyone to ensure this would be happening.”
The situation in northern Syria is growing ever more complex. It is the case for many groups fighting there that “the enemy of my enemy is also my enemy.” The Turks and the Syrian Kurds, for example, are both fighting ISIS, both fighting the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad — and also fighting each other.
Military officials from Russia and the United States held an unannounced meeting Thursday night in Geneva ahead of wider Syria talks expected Friday, a U.S. State Department spokesman told CNN.
“It is good that for the first time there is direct coordination, including on military issues, between the U.S. and Russia,” German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said in a statement. “I hope that this will enable us at least to agree as a first step on measures to protect the civilian population.”
But skepticism remains.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad said “no one” was capable of making the fighting stop.
Other critics doubt the proposed truce will work as the Syrian army, backed by Russian air power, pursues a major offensive in northern Syria.
If the Syrian regime does not agree to the truce, the civil war could continue to drag on, said Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s ambassador to the U.N.
The U.S. has accused Russia and Syria of carrying out airstrikes that hit hospitals and schools in northern Syria this week.
“They were Russian aircraft that carried it out, these strikes,” said Mark Toner, a deputy spokesman for the State Department. “We’re pretty confident in our assessment that this was Russia that carried out these strikes.”
Moscow needs to “put up or shut up” when it comes to implementing the truce, he said.
The Russian Ministry of Defense denied any responsibility for the attacks in a series of tweets Tuesday.
The country has been accused of hitting moderate rebel groups with its airstrikes. Moscow denied it and maintains that it is targeting terrorists.
