As Donald Trump rises in the polls, he dives in CNN’s Political Prediction Market, an online game that factors polls and other user data to predict outcomes for the 2016 election.
The real estate mogul was at a 33% chance to win the Republican nomination Monday morning, before his campaign circulated a proposal to ban all Muslims from traveling to the U.S. in the wake of the terrorist attacks in San Bernardino and Paris. By the following morning, his odds had dropped to 22%, plummeting 11% in a day.
Trump is currently at 18% odds for the overall nomination, making him third in the Republican pack behind Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas.
Rubio is leading the GOP pack with a 40% chance in the Prediction Market that he’ll win the nomination, and Cruz is second at 26%.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market is not to be confused with polls from real voters.
In the latest CNN/WMUR poll released Tuesday, Trump nearly doubled his lead in New Hampshire. Trump has 32% of the support from voters surveyed, up 6 points from September. Rubio is second, with 14% support from voters surveyed. New Jersey Gov. Christie holds third place in the single digits at 9%.
The survey was performed almost entirely before Trump made his comments about Muslims.
In other Market news, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul has collapsed to 20% odds of making CNN’s Republican debate in Las Vegas on December 15. In the CNN/WMUR Poll released Tuesday, Paul polled with 3% support from New Hampshire voters, which is less than the 4% threshold needed in the state to qualify for the debate.
