Donald Trump is still the GOP front-runner in opinion polls, but Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has seen a surge on CNN’s Political Prediction Market, and is now seen by players as more likely than the billionaire businessman to be the Republican nominee.
Cruz’s odds — which stand at 21% — are greater than Trump’s 20% odds for the first time, according to the Political Prediction Market, a live, online game, conducted by the company Pivit for CNN. It uses polling data and input from its 25,000 users to predict outcomes.
Movement on the Political Prediction Market has clearly been affected by Cruz’s improved standing in some polls, particularly in Iowa. In a recent Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday, Trump remained first in Iowa with 25%, but Cruz edged Ben Carson out for second with 23% support. The game does not measure the support of players, but instead has players predict who they think will come out on top.
Following the most recent Republican debate on November 11, Cruz was in third place at 11% odds of winning the nomination, behind both Trump at 20% and Political Prediction Market leader Marco Rubio at 45% odds to be the nominee.
Rubio, who saw steady gains starting after the first CNN Republican debate, is still in first place and has continued to see an increase in odds since the latest GOP debate. Rubio still has the best odds at 47%.
Cruz, however, has been leading in the Political Prediction Market’s analysis of one key state: Iowa.
As of November 25, in Iowa, Cruz had the best Political Prediction Market odds — 37% — among his fellow GOP contenders.
In the Political Prediction Market, currently trailing Trump is Jeb Bush at 5% odds and Ben Carson at 2% with the rest of the GOP field at 1%.
