Sen. Marco Rubio leads the Republican pack in Iowa — at least according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
The Political Prediction Market is a game that factors the unscientific predictions of players as well as existing polls and other indicators. It will change as the public weighs in throughout the course of the race. Rubio’s lead is noteworthy because it’s at odds with the latest polling from the state.
In CNN’s Political Prediction Market, the Florida senator is followed closely by Texas Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and Ben Carson, who have also seen an increase in odds.
Rubio saw an increase in odds from Thursday to Friday — from 27% to 29%, beating out Cruz, who was at 30% Thursday and is now at 27%.
Donald Trump’s odds in Iowa, which were at 15% after the Republican debate last week, decreased to 10% Thursday, and are now at 16%.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market is not to be confused with polls from actual voters. The November 6 poll from Iowa by CNN/ORC shows Trump as the favorite in the state. He has 25% of the support from Iowa voters who were surveyed, with Carson on his tail with 23%. Rubio and Cruz followed with 13% and 11% support, respectively.
In Florida, CNN’s Political Prediction Market shows Trump in the lead to win Florida’s March 15, 2016, primary with 45% odds, while Rubio has his chances at 40%, Carson is at 7% and Cruz is at 3%. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush trails Carson with 5% odds.
Trump also tops the pack in Nevada, where voters will caucus in February, with his Political Prediction Market chances at 35%, Rubio at 24%, Carson at 18% and Cruz at 15%.
For the Republican nomination, the Prediction Market reveals that Rubio is leading that front, with his odds currently at 46%. Trump’s chances for the nomination are at 22% and Cruz is at 12%.
Carson’s odds have tumbled to 4% — below Bush’s 7% odds — for the lowest likelihood of clinching the nomination that Carson has seen since early this fall.
In the first national poll conducted since the Paris terror attacks, Trump continues to dominate the field of Republicans.
The Bloomberg Politics poll released Thursday finds Trump has 24% of support among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters. Carson is second with 20% support, and Rubio is third with 12%.
