Ask Siri what she thinks of Apple’s share price and she’ll tell you that she can’t help you buy or sell stocks. “It’s your opinion that counts.”
Well, here’s mine. Apple’s stock fell to a 52-week low of $92 a share when the Dow plunged more than 1,000 points on August 24. It may not hit that level again anytime soon.
Shares of Apple have since bounced back more than 20% to around $111.50.
And with new products, probably the iPhone 6S, a bigger iPad and an updated Apple TV, set to be announced on Wednesday, there’s reason for Apple fans (and average investors) to be excited again.
Even if you don’t own Apple directly, you probably should care about what’s next for the stock.
Odds are, you own Apple in a broader market exchange-traded fund or in a mutual fund in your 401(k) plan or other type of retirement savings account. Apple, after all, is the world’s most valuable company and remains a darling of big institutions like Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity and T. Rowe Price.
Yes, Apple bulls still have to be worried about the health of the Chinese economy. Apple generated nearly 27% of its overall sales from China in its most recent quarter.
Apple’s success is also largely reliant on the continued popularity of the iPhone. More than 63% of Apple’s total revenue comes from sales of its iPhones.
So there is more pressure on Apple with each new iPhone iteration. It can’t afford a flop. Newer products and features like the Apple Watch and Apple Music just aren’t big enough to move the financial needle for Apple.
But those risks appear to be priced in Apple’s stock. Shares trade for just 11 times earnings estimates for its next fiscal year. That’s a big discount to the broader market as well as rivals like Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Amazon.
And despite Apple’s rebound in the past few weeks, the stock is still not far from being in its own personal bear market — a decline of 20% from a recent peak.
Apple is currently about 17% below the all-time high of $134.54 it hit in April.
The huge drop seems like an overreaction when you consider how cheap the stock is compared to the rest of the market and its competitors.
Apple is also sitting on a $203 billion pile of cash — which should help insulate it from any more market turmoil.
It doesn’t look like Wall Street analysts are that worried about Apple either.
Earnings estimate for Apple’s current quarter, fiscal year and next fiscal year have all been steadily rising in the past few months.
In fact, the consensus earnings estimate for next year is now 14% higher than it was at the start of 2015.
And analysts are predicting that Apple’s profits will grow about 15% annually, on average, for the next few years. Those estimates could turn out to be too low if Apple eventually enters the car market as rumored … or starts making original Hollywood content like Netflix.
But Apple’s stock is flat this year. There’s a disconnect there.
So investors should probably ignore all the doom and gloom about Apple. The company’s best days are not behind it.
