GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump is at 23% likely to win the GOP nomination, according to a prediction markets game run by the company Pivit.
On Monday, the real estate mogul was at 19% likely to win the nomination, second to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush who was at 24% odds.
Bush’s odds have now dropped below Trump’s. As of Thursday morning, Bush was a at 20% odds to win the nomination.
Pivit is a game – a live online prediction market that factors polls and other factors and will change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins an election. Players can forecast when the odds will change and compete with friends and experts to climb to the top of the leader board.
The company has a partnership with CNN for users to play and predict the outcome of the 2016 election.
The prediction market, which enables players to predict who they think will win, is different than most polls, which generally gauge support for a candidate. Polls have shown Trump as the GOP front-runner for some time. A Quinnipiac University poll released Thursday found Trump with 28% support from registered Republican voters in GOP field. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson follows Trump in the poll, with 12% support. Bush had 7% .
Pivit has also seen an uptick in the odds that Vice President Joe Biden will enter the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. Those odds now sit at 75%, according to Pivit.
Hillary Clinton is still the frontrunner to win the Democratic nomination in 2016 with the odds at 70%.
These numbers come after Biden addressed the potential run in a conference call with the Democratic National Committee Wednesday, saying that he doesn’t know whether he has “the emotional fuel at this time to run.”
“If I were to announce to run, I have to be able to commit to all of you that I would be able to give it my whole heart and my whole soul, and right now, both are pretty well banged up,” he told everyone on the call.
