The odds of Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination are up from 1% in late July to 19% now on Pivit, an interactive prediction marketplace that combines public opinion, news and data to predict the live odds of election outcomes.
Over the last month, the billionaire business man has topped several national polls that show him leading the Republican pack of 17 candidates. But his worth in the Pivit’s prediction game had not followed suit until recently. Trump still trails former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who is at 24% odds to take the GOP nomination on the Pivit marketplace.
Pivit is a game and with live odds that will change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins an election. Players can forecast when the odds will change and compete with friends and experts to climb to the top of the leader board.
CNN has a partnership with Pivit to let users predict outcomes of the 2016 presidential election.
Trump’s improvement on the Pivit marketplace comes only after his sustained surge in national and state polls.
Most recently, CNN/ORC polling shows that his gains among the Republican Party have boosted the real estate mogul enough for him to be competitive in the general election. He was only 6 percentage points behind Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical general election match-up, up from 16 points behind Clinton in a July CNN poll.
And according to a new Quinnipiac University poll, Trump is now leading Bush in his own state.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio are tied for third place at 13%, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich lands in the fourth spot at 7%.
And based on predictions on Pivit, Vice President Joe Biden has surpassed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders by two points, with a 15% chance of winning the Democratic nomination. But Clinton is still on top of the chart, with a 70% chance of winning the nomination.
