The explosions hit almost simultaneously — in France, Kuwait and Tunisia — and killed dozens of people barely 24 hours after massacres in and around Kobani, in Syria, in which the self-appointed Islamic State, or ISIS, killed at least 145 civilians.
These far-flung attacks are undoubtedly about sending a message, one aimed at a range of audiences and serving distinct purposes. But while the carnage and ISIS’ willingness and ability to inflict mass casualties continue to shock, these attacks also reveal some useful lessons on the group’s priorities, tactics and strategy.
On Friday morning, an explosion tore through a gas products company in Grenoble, France, as at least one man sped a car into a pile of gas cylinders in an apparent effort to trigger a massive explosion. The attack failed to bring about the scale of carnage that was no doubt sought. But the suspects captured and reportedly decapitated one man and placed his severed head on a wire fence surrounded by flags.
About the same time, another attack unfolded in North Africa, in the luxurious Tunisian beach resort of Sousse, a Mediterranean expanse favored by European tourists. Men reportedly sprayed gunfire on tourists relaxing on the beach between two popular hotels, killing at least 37 people. Tunisia is perhaps the most progressive and liberal of all Arab countries, and was the birthplace of what was once called the Arab Spring. It had appeared to be the one place in the region where democracy was making gains, but its tourism-dependent economy could be hit hard.
Meanwhile, in Kuwait, there was an explosion in the Shiite mosque of Al-Sadiq — on the Muslim day of prayer, in the middle of Ramadan, the holiest month in Islam. ISIS took responsibility for the attack, describing it as a suicide bombing. Dozens were left injured and at least 25 dead in a small, conservative emirate that has strong ties with the West.
So far, ISIS has not taken responsibility for the attacks in France and Tunisia. But if it is ultimately shown to have been behind all three massacres, then it seems difficult not to conclude that the group is seeking to safeguard its image of invincibility, as well as its claim to be the standard-bearer, the defender of Muslims, specifically Sunni Muslims.
Of course, this is all a façade — ISIS is neither invincible, nor is it defending Muslims. Instead, it is killing them, both Shiites and Sunnis. When ISIS kills Westerners it receives much more media attention in the West, but the vast majority of the group’s victims are Muslims. Similarly, ISIS’ claim to be defending Sunnis from Shiite oppression, notably in Iraq, rings hollow when its enforcers kill anyone — including Sunnis — who defy its wishes.
Similarly, in Syria, the ISIS attacks of the last couple of days against Kurds in and near Kobani served both tactical and propaganda goals. The Kurds have become the most effective fighting force against the Islamic State, with Kobani becoming the site of the first major defeat for ISIS after a lengthy siege in which Kurdish forces ultimately beat back and repelled ISIS. And just a week ago, Kurdish fighters supported by U.S. bombers managed to wrest the strategic city of Tal Abyad from ISIS control. In doing so, the YPG, or Kurdish People’s Protection Units, opened up a very real vulnerability for ISIS, cutting off supply routes to Raqqa, the Islamic State’s “capital,” in Syria.
That constituted not only a significant military setback for ISIS, but also a crucial blow to its aura of divinely anointed invincibility, which has been a key component of its appeal. The furious counterattack of the past few days in the Kurdish area, complete with civilian massacres, therefore appears to have been rooted in tactical battlefield objectives — ISIS wants to roll back Kurdish gains and prevent the YPG from moving toward Raqqa, but also hopes to repair the dents in its image.
Clearly, attacks in France, Tunisia and Kuwait would not be about immediate military gains. However, such attacks on outside states can act as recruiting operations, aimed at firing up pious Sunnis and stoking sectarian and anti-Western animosity in the process. This was clear in the attack in Kuwait as an ISIS branch calling itself the Islamic State in the Province of Najd — a region in Saudi Arabia — took responsibility, saying the bomber went after the “temple of rejectionists.” That is language that seeks to deepen and inflame divisions between Shiite and Sunni Kuwaitis.
Kuwaiti leaders called for national unity, which is a good thing. They also urged the country to unite instead against “Takfiris,” Muslims who label other Muslims as “infidels.” ISIS most likely hopes for harsh crackdowns in all the places where it has attacked — in France, Tunisia, Kuwait and elsewhere — in the belief that stronger security measures will stoke resentments, divisions and instability.
Ultimately, ISIS will continue to perpetrate the kind of horrors we have seen in recent days because it sees potential propaganda and strategic gains. But it is also worth remembering that even though ISIS and its supporters have shown time and again that they can kill unarmed civilians on the beach or in a mosque, word is getting out that on the battlefield, ISIS is far from invincible.
