I’ve been watching baseball almost all of my life. I saw my first in-person Pirate game in 1982, I really enjoyed the 90-92 teams, and like all other Pirate fans I’ve suffered through 19 straight losing teams. As little as six weeks ago I saw no reason to believe the 2012 Bucco squad would be any different – on May 24 the Pirates were 20-24, had scored only 124 runs (less than three per game – an historically low pace), and while the pitching had been spectacular the offense appeared to be BY FAR the worst in the game. The team had been outscored by 34 runs and a .500 record already seemed almost out of reach, much less true contention.
Since that day, the Bucs are 28-13, they have scored 219 runs in those 41 games (5.34 per game), and have outscored opponents by 66 runs over that span. They have gone an incredible 18-4 at home during this run, and now sport the majors’ BEST home record at 29-14. I’ve seen a lot of strange and amazing things in 30 years of watching baseball, but this turnaround might be the most amazing I’ve ever seen – I cannot recall a team looking completely terrible at the plate for two months almost doubling their offensive output for an extended stretch.
This run has the Pirates in first place, but only by a game over the Reds and by 2.5 over the Cardinals. The good news is, with the addition of the second wild-card the Bucs could theoretically finish behind both of them and still make the playoffs. The bad news is that the offense will cool off soon – while they clearly were not as bad as they looked in April/May, they also clearly are not the best offense in the league. Let’s look at the roster and try to predict the second half for key hitters, and find possible upgrades. We’ll go from best to worst.
Andrew McCutchen – MVP. Not MVP of the team, MVP of the whole league. Where would the Bucs be without him? .360 average, 18 HR, clutch hitting…he’s done it all. I think .360 is over his head a bit, so expect slight regression here – but even at .330 he’s amazing, and we might just be seeing his career year.
Pedro Alvarez – the Pirates’ season in a nutshell, Alvarez struggled when the team struggled, and heated up when the team heated up. His .232 average is still a little low, but he’s shown that 30 HRs is the low-end of what he can do. If he finds a way to hit .250 he is probably the most dangerous 3B in the National League…and as a bonus, his defense has become average-to-good!
Neil Walker – Another slow start, but Walker finished the first half with a bang, going 5-5 on Sunday. Walker is now hitting .291 with 21 doubles – the six homers are a little below par, but Walker has shown he’s a solid .270-.290 hitter and I look for him to maintain this production – especially if he stays in the #2 hole ahead of McCutchen.
Garrett Jones – slugging .507 with 12 HRs in only 213 at-bats – the problem is Jones never walks (only eight walks against 53 strikeouts) – if he doesn’t start showing more plate discipline, he will soon tail off. Still, he should be a lineup fixture against righties the rest of the year.
Mike McKenry/Rod Barajas – I thought catcher would be a weak link offensively, but McKenry is now hitting .252 with 7 HRs in only 103 at-bats – and with superior defense. Frankly, he deserves to be the starter over Barajas (hitting only .217 with limited power) until he proves this power is a fluke. Even if McKenry cools off, there are no upgrades available at catcher.
Clint Barmes – great defender at shortstop, but the bat has been TERRIBLE (.204 with no power, and only FOUR walks! Unbelievable). Unfortunately, he’s signed through next year, he’s a Clint Hurdle favorite, and there are no good SS available to replace him. With his defense if he hits .220 a good team can live with that – and he’s a better hitter than he’s shown. Look for modest improvement the rest of the year.
Jose Tabata/Alex Presley/Gorky Hernandez – now we come to the REAL problem spot, and the easiest fix on the team – corner outfield. Tabata has been projected for great things for years, but after a never-ending stream of weak groundouts to second and a nonchalant attitude on defense, management FINALLY sent him to the minors. Presley’s attitude and hustle are far better, but he won’t take a walk and has not been a positive contributor. Hernandez might be the best defensive OF in the league – his range is INCREDIBLE – but he cannot hit a lick. The Pirates need at least one outfield bat, and preferably two.
The first move should be a no-brainer, and I expect it soon – promote Starling Marte. The Bucs’ top hitting prospect has been raking at AAA, and even if he struggles he will almost certainly be an improvement over Tabata and Presley. There are some who think he is not ready – I say give the kid a chance, if he fails the team will at last have tried to solve the problem internally.
Regardless of how Marte fares, though, this is the year to go “all-in”. The Bucs have the second-best record in the league, attendance is rising, and the division is weak. I say trade Joel Hanrahan, who has lost faith in his slider, and use the return (plus other assets) to get a premium bat. Carlos Quentin and Justin Upton have been rumored, and if the price isn’t exorbitant, I think either would be a fine solution. It’s important not to stand pat – the Cards and Reds will almost certainly make moves, and the Bucs have to do the same.
We’ll look at the pitching next week, and also take a look around the National League.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
