The baseball season just passed the quarter-pole, and as usual there are teams and players playing way above our expectations. However, even though it’s almost June, remember: IT’S STILL EARLY. There’s plenty of time for hot starts to fade away, as Pirate fans found out the hard way last year. Let’s look at the five most surprising teams and forecast their chances to sustain what they’ve done so far over the remaining 120 games. We’ll look at surprising players, as well as disappointing teams/players in the next week or two.
TEAMS
Baltimore Orioles: Picked by most, including me, to finish last in the AL East, the Orioles have the best record in the league as of Tuesday. Offensively, they are about what I expected outside of Adam Jones’ incredibly hot start (14 homers already), although I was shocked to find that they lead ALL OF BASEBALL in home runs with 65! – but the pitching has been the difference. After finishing dead last in all of MLB with a 4.89 ERA in 2011, the O’s have a 3.58 ERA thus far. The bullpen has carried the team, as they have five relievers with ERA’s under 2.00. I don’t see their run as sustainable, however, because the starting pitching has not been great – the three worst ERA’s on the team belong to starters, and eventually the bullpen will crack under the strain. The offense will be decent (although they won’t come close to leading the league in homers) and the O’s might well make a run at .500, but eventually they will fall back to earth, especially in baseball’s toughest division. 90+ wins chance: 10%.
LA Dodgers: Another team I picked to struggle mightily, the Dodgers have the best record in all of MLB, and the fact that they have outscored opponents by 50 runs already is even more impressive. The good pitching could have been predicted – after all, LA finished fifth in ERA last year, and Dodger Stadium has long been a pitcher’s paradise – but the offense has been a HUGE surprise. Matt Kemp was far and away the league’s best hitter before he got hurt, but AJ Ellis and Andre Ethier have also hit exceptionally well – and while the rest of the lineup lacks power, they are getting on base at an exceptional rate (.340 as a team, third in MLB).
The Dodgers have two decided advantages over the Orioles – their division is MUCH weaker, and their pitching is far more likely to stay strong. No other team in the NL West has outscored their opponents, and the teams I thought would contend, Colorado and Arizona, have each been outscored by 20+ runs and have had huge pitching issues. The Dodgers’ offense will cool off – fundamentally, it’s much the same group as last season, and the longer Kemp is out the less likely they can sustain this – but Lilly and especially Kershaw are stud starters, and Kelly Jansen appears to be the next great closer in the league. They won’t win 70% of their games, but with Arizona already 10.5 games behind, the Dodgers are clearly in the catbird seat out west. 90+ wins chance: 80%
St. Louis Cardinals: Their record (23-19) isn’t that impressive, but they’ve outscored their opponents by 58 runs, tops in the NL, and they lead the league in runs – and all that with Pujols gone, Carpenter injured, and Wainwright largely ineffective. On the pitching side, Lance Lynn has been their best starter and his peripheral numbers suggest that he may be for-real. Jake Westbrook has also pitched well, but look for him to regress as the year goes on. The Cards’ staff gives up their share of hits, but they simply avoid the free pass (only the Phillies have walked fewer batters) and they have a good defense to back them up. I think overall the pitching will decline a little as the year goes on, but it won’t collapse as long as Lynn retains his effectiveness.
The offense is another story – Rafael Furcal and Jon Jay aren’t going to hit close to .340 over a full season, Carlos Beltran isn’t going to slug .600, and their team on-base% of .344 and slugging % of .457 are not sustainable, especially with the serious injury to Lance Berkman. What those players have done through two months is very impressive, but I strongly believe a major regression is coming for this team’s offense. On the other hand, this is a mediocre division at best, and 85 wins might well be enough this year – if the offense stays above-average, and Wainwright finds his ace form, this team could capture the Central, albeit with 85-88 wins. I just don’t see the pieces here of a 90-win team, but time will tell. 90+ wins chance: 15%.
Cleveland Indians: I predicted that the AL Central was the most predictable division in the preseason, figuring that the Tigers would run away with it. We’ll get to Detroit’s struggles soon, but the Indians have exceeded expectations thus far. Cleveland has a better record than the Cardinals at 23-18, despite being outscored by six runs on the season. That’s a clue that they are playing ‘above their heads’ and will likely backslide soon. Offensively they have a solid core of good-not-great players in Jason Kipnis, Santana, and Cabrera – this will never be a GREAT offense, but it is unlikely to be a below-average attack either (much like last season, when the Indians finished ninth in the AL in runs). One would then think that the pitching is much-improved, but their team ERA is just over 4, good enough for 20th in MLB – last season it was 4.2 and ranked 23rd. Derek Lowe has carried the staff so far, and he’s not going to finish with an ERA below 4, much less the 2.15 he currently has.  In short, I don’t see a recipe for success here, they are a big bat and an ace pitcher short of true contention. 90+ wins chance: 5%.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
