For our final installment of our MLB previews, we will look at the central divisions in both the AL and NL…the AL seems on the surface to be Detroit and then everyone else, while the NL Central has been jumbled my the losses of Pujols and Fielder. As before, let’s take a look at the moves each team made, then analyze what the season looks like for each team.
If you missed the previous preview columns click here for Part One, click here for Part Two.
AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox
2011 Record: 79-83 (3rd)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 3rd place
Key Additions:Â OF Kosuke Fukudome
Key Losses: SP Mark Buehrle, SS Omar Vizquel, OF Juan Pierre
Cleveland Indians
2011 Record:Â 80-82 (2nd)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 5th place
Key Additions:Â SP Derek Lowe, 1B Casey Kotchman
Key Losses: Â DH Jim Thome, OF Kosuke Fukudome
Detroit Tigers
2011 Record: 95-67 (1st)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 2nd place
Key Additions:Â 1B Prince Fielder, RP Octavio Dotel
Key Losses: Â 1B/DH Victor Martinez (injury), OF Magglio Ordonez, SP Brad Penny
Kansas City Royals
2011 Record:Â 71-91 (4th)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 4th place
Key Additions:Â SP Jonathan Sanchez, RP Jonathan Broxton
Key Losses: OF Melky Cabrera, RP Joakim Soria (injury)
Minnesota Twins
2011 Record: 63-99 (5th)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 1st place
Key Additions:Â C Ryan Doumit, OF Josh Willingham, 2B/SS Jamey Carroll, SP Jason Marquis
Key Losses: RP Joe Nathan, DH Jason Kubel, OF Michael Cuddyer
Predicted Standings:
Detroit (93-96 wins)
Minnesota (82-85 wins)
Kansas City (78-81 wins)
Cleveland (74-77 wins)
Chicago Sox (68-72 wins)
Division Analysis:
The White Sox are in rebuilding mode, having fired longtime manager Ozzie Guillen, let Mark Buehrle leave, and traded Carlos Quentin. There’s some talent in the rotation in Danks and Floyd, but barring miracle comebacks from Adam Dunn and Alex Rios this projects to be a TERRIBLE offense. It could be awhile before the south-siders compete again.
Cleveland seems stuck in a mediocre rut – unable to put the pieces together to contend, they do have enough pieces to fight for a .500 finish. Like Chicago there are elements of a good rotation – if Lowe has another good year in him and Jimenez rediscovers his form, this could be a VERY good rotation – but the offense is still a work in progress. I look for improvement from Carlos Santana and Shin-soo Choo, but there is reason to question every other hitter in the lineup. There’s definitely some upside here – the middle three teams in this division could finish in any order, they are that close – but I don’t see enough upside for the Indians to compete with the Tigers.
Kansas City is pegged as a darkhorse by many, and I love much of the offense they are building…but I’m absolutely NOT sold on their pitching at all. It’s within the realm of possibility that none of their starters will finish with an ERA below 4.2, and you cannot win in 2012 with starting pitching that poor. Hosmer, Gordon, Butler, and maybe Moustakas will provide the core of a contending offense a few years from now, but the Royals HAVE to figure out their pitching first.
Minnesota absolutely collapsed a year ago, and the news that Scott Baker is on the DL already makes me hesitant to pick them this high – but the fact is, they had far more talent a year ago than a 99-loss team, and if Mauer and Morneau come back healthy (admittedly a big if), that will have a HUGE impact on this team. Doumit will help a lot as a part-time C and effective DH when needed, and Willingham will help ease the departure of Kubel. They won’t have a lot of power and they will need Liriano to bounce back on the mound, but the Twins have a good chance of finishing at or above .500.
There are always surprises in baseball, and certainly there are possible ways the Tigers could lose the AL Central – but to me, they are more of an odds-on favorite than any team in MLB. They have a dominant ace pitcher and two other good starters, a deep bullpen, and (on paper) by far the best offense in the division. Long-term, the Fielder contract will likely be a huge problem for Detroit – but for the next 2-3 years Fielder will really help the Tigers’ offense. He and Cabrera represent the best power/average combo in the league, and along with a solid cast of complementary hitters should keep the Tigers at the top of the division.
One word of caution: with Martinez gone for the season, an injury to Fielder, Cabrera, or Verlander would be a HUGE blow and likely would make the division a lot more competitive. Verlander had a huge innings total a year ago, and neither Cabrera nor Fielder is exactly known for their conditioning. Watch this team’s health closely.
NL Central
Chicago Cubs
2011 Record: Â 71-91 (5th)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 4th place
Key Additions:Â OF David DeJesus, SP Paul Maholm, 3B Ian Stewart, SP Chris Volstad
Key Losses: Â SP Carlos Zambrano, RP Sean Marshall, 3B Aramis Ramirez, 1B Carlos Pena
Cincinnati Reds
2011 Record: 79-83 (3rd)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction: Â 2nd place
Key Additions:Â SP Mat Latos, RP Sean Marshall, RP Ryan Madson (injured), rookie C Devin Mesoraco
Key Losses: SP Edinson Volquez, Â P Travis Wood, C Ramon Hernandez, SS Edgar Renteria
Houston Astros
2011 Record: Â 56-106 (6th)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 6th place
Key Additions:Â IF Jed Lowrie, P Kyle Weiland
Key Losses: Â SS Clint Barmes, P Mark Melancon
Milwaukee Brewers
2011 Record: 96-66 (1st)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction: 1st place
Key Additions:Â 3B Aramis Ramirez, SS Alex Gonzalez
Key Losses: 1B Prince Fielder, RP LaTroy Hawkins
Pittsburgh Pirates
2011 Record: 72-90 (4th)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction:Â 5th place
Key Additions:Â SP Erik Bedard, SP AJ Burnett, SS Clint Barmes, C Rod Barajas, 3B Casey McGehee
Key Losses: C Ryan Doumit, OF Xavier Paul, SP Paul Maholm, SS Ronny Cedeno
St. Louis Cardinals
2011 Record: 90-72 (2nd)
2011 Glass Eye Prediction: Â 3rd place
Key Additions: OF Carlos Beltran, RP JC Romero
Key Losses: Â 1B Albert Pujols, SP Edwin Jackson, RP Octavio Dotel
Predicted Standings:
Milwaukee (88-92 wins)
Cincinnati (85-88 wins)
St. Louis (81-84 wins)
Pittsburgh (76-80 wins)
Chicago (71-76 wins)
Houston (69-72 wins)
Division Analysis:
We’ll save the Pirates for last…Houston finally bottomed out last year, losing 106 games and trading away almost all of their offensive assets. They still have pitchers they could move, and with Brett Myers moving to the bullpen I expect him to be traded at the very least – but the Astros also have new ownership and new management and might want to hang on to Rodriguez and Norris as building blocks for the next good Astros team. In any case, this team has virtually no proven offensive weapons, a thin rotation, and an unproven bullpen – they are on the short list for worst NL teams again in 2012.
Chicago also has new management in former Boston GM Theo Epstein, and he has a whale of a mess to deal with. The only truly awful contract left is Soriano’s, but there’s not a lot of talent on this club offensively or on the mound. Starlin Castro is a player to build around and Geovanny Soto should improve, but the offense won’t nearly be good enough – and in the rotation, aside from Matt Garza everyone else is a #4 or worse on a contending staff. Theo will be given some time to turn it around in Wrigley, but it’s going to take a couple of years.
St. Louis exceeded all expectations in 2011- making a miracle run both in September to make the postseason in their last regular-season game, then knocking off favorite after favorite to send Tony LaRussa out with a bang. Unfortunately, the offseason saw the loss of Pujols, LaRussa, pitching coach Dave Duncan, and spring training has seen injury befall ace Chris Carpenter. Duncan in particular had a well-deserved reputation for improving retread veteran pitchers, and I expect the entire Cards staff to take a step back in 2012. The offense is still solid, as Holliday, Berkman, and Beltran form a formidable core if healthy – but the latter two had HUGE bounce-back years in 2011 and are due to regress a bit. This was the top offense in the league a year ago – with age and the loss of Pujols, they will slip a few notches this season.
The rotation is frankly a mess with Carpenter out – Jaime Garcia is a good #3-type starter, Adam Wainwright is coming off injury, and the rest of the rotation is either proven mediocrities or unproven converted relievers. There are enough solid arms to form a decent bullpen, but this staff is not good enough to win without Carpenter. There’s still hope – if Carpenter comes back quickly, St. Louis could possibly contend – but I think the Cards’ window has closed, and they will struggle to reach .500 in 2012.
Cincinnati won the division in 2010, took a major step backward in 2011, and appear primed to make another serious run in 2012. The offense isn’t in question – they were #1 in runs in 2010 and #2 in 2011 – with Votto, Bruce, Stubbs, and Phillips, they have an outstanding offensive core. The question is on the mound – they gave up 720 runs a year ago, far more than any NL contender, and they will have to improve that by at least 50 to be a factor this season. They made some aggressive changes, adding Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Madson – Madson was since lost to injury, and it remains to be seen if Latos can put up ace-level numbers away from Petco Park, but he should bolster the rotation. Cincy needs Marshall to step in and solidify the bullpen, they need health from Johnny Cueto, and they need a big bounce-back season from Bronson Arroyo. All those things are quite possible, and this team should contend all season – but I am JUST uncertain enough about their pitching (and manager Dusty Baker’s handling of the staff) to pick them a close second.
Milwaukee suffered a tough loss in the playoffs, and another one this winter when Prince Fielder left town – but looking at their roster, there still aren’t many holes on this team, especially on the hill. Gallardo and Grienke are a fine pair of aces, if Marcum is healthy and Wolf maintains his 2011 performance they are the best rotation in the division by far. The bullpen is deep and talented, and should have little trouble closing out late leads.
Offensively, losing Fielder obviously hurts – all the more so because he was their only left-handed power threat, and they now are overwhelmingly right-handed. Even at that, they have a potent core in Braun, Hart, Weeks, and newly-acquired 3B Aramis Ramirez. They won’t be as powerful as in 2011 but they also have few holes and should score their share of runs, especially in homer-happy Miller Park. They won’t be as good as a season ago, but in a fairly weak division they should be just good enough to win their second division title in a row.
Now, the Buccos…we all know how they exceeded expectations through late July last year, then collapsed the last two months. Some say the 20-inning affair in Atlanta altered their course, frankly I say water seeks its own level and the Pirates were playing way above their heads for four months. The pitching improved, there is no doubt, but the offense was frankly a barren wasteland – they scored only 610 runs, only San Diego and San Francisco scored fewer. We’ll get to the pitching in a minute, there’s real promise on the hill, but offensively this team is frankly not capable of delivering at a contending level. McCutchen should really break out this season, Walker is steady at second, and there’s always a chance that Pedro Alvarez finally figures it out…but aside from that, there’s almost no power, precious little speed, and only Tabata figures to hit for a high average. You HAVE to score a decent amount of runs to win, even with GREAT pitching (which the Bucs don’t have) – and no matter how well they pitch, these Bucs won’t hit enough to win consistently. Worse, there’s precious little help on the farm on offense.
The pitching is a decidedly different story – Morton really showed flashes a year ago, as did James McDonald later in the season. The additions of Bedard and Burnett were smart, low-risk high-upside moves and if even one of them pans out, it gives Pittsburgh a very solid rotation AND a valuable chip to play at the trade deadline. With Taillon and Cole on the way by late 2013, the pitching figures to be strong in Pittsburgh for the next few years (barring injury as always). The bullpen won’t be a strong as a season ago, but Hanrahan has established himself as a premier closer – and yes, an attractive trade option in July. Before you complain about the Pirates trading such players, ask yourself if Hanrahan is likely to be as effective by the time the Bucs next compete for the division, and if Kansas City now wishes they had traded Joakim Soria LAST year, before he blew out his elbow? Closers are made, not born – as much as I like Hanrahan, the Pirates should take any reasonable offer they get for him.
In any case, look for more of the same in Pittsburgh – a decent pitching performance from the rotation, a lot of heartbreaking 3-2 and 4-3 type losses, and frustration at the plate. I’m being optimistic calling for 76-80 wins, but that says more about the down state of the division than my faith in the Pirates. A winning record is a longshot; competing for the division is a pipe dream, as usual.
Next week we will preview round 1 of the NHL playoffs…my favorite time of the year J
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
