At last, we get to our midseason NFL review. We’ll review my preseason picks, look at the top surprises and disappointments thus far, and take a quick stab at figuring out who will make the playoffs. Let’s start in the NFC.
NFC West
Biggest surprise: San Francisco (record 8-1; my prediction: 6-10). The 49ers are the surprise of the entire league, and with a 5-game lead in the division and five games left against the rest of that motley crew, the only question left is will the ‘9ers stumble a bit and lose a top-2 seed? Rookie coach Jim Harbaugh is a shoo-in for coach of the Year unless this team collapses – and with their schedule, that seems almost impossible. Do you realize that this team is an OT loss from 9-0, and they have beaten some GOOD teams…amazing.
Biggest Disappointment: Plenty of candidates, but I’m going with the Rams (2-7; I predicted 9-7). The dreaded sophomore slump appears to have hit QB Sam Bradford – he was ineffective and injured during the first half of the season, but should improve over the last seven games. The offense is ATROICOUS, scoring more than 13 points only once thus far.
Playoffs: Only San Francisco, but I think they will breeze to the #2 seed with a record of 12-4 or 13-3. I doubt any other team will get to .500.
NFC South
Biggest surprise: Cam Newton. The Panthers are as almost as bad as I expected, but Newton has been sensational for a rookie – his stats have come back to earth of late, but he’s still exceeded all expectations and unless he regresses substantially next year, it appears Carolina has a true franchise QB to build around.
Biggest disappointment: Tampa Bay. I knew they would regress somewhat, but they are getting CRUSHED over the past month, and have been outscored by 77 points. They have some winnable games, but they also have Green Bay this week – I don’t see them winning out, which is what I think it will take to make the playoffs.
Playoffs: New Orleans is obviously in the driver’s seat at 7-3, but they have some tough games left and I would not be surprised to see them go 11-5 – which will keep them out of a bye week, and likely have them going to Green Bay in the second round. Atlanta has a shot, but at 5-4 they need to finish no worse than 4-2 to have a chance – their second game against the Saints on 12/26 still might decide the division.
NFC North
Biggest surprise: Chicago Bears (6-3; my prediction: 8-8). I expected the Lions to improve, but I figured the Bears were on the way down, and after a 2-3 start it sure looked like they were in trouble. However, this team is on a serious roll, having won four straight in very impressive fashion. Suddenly Jay Cutler isn’t getting sacked much, the defense is forcing tons of turnovers, and the Bears have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs. Their schedule is a lot easier from here on in – a 4-week tour of the mediocre AFC West, Seattle, and Minnesota are all winnable games – only Green Bay figures to be a sure loss, and the Pack may be in ‘rest’ mode by Week 16.
Biggest disappointment: Donovan McNabb. Say what you want about Andy Reid, but the man knows QB talent. He knew EXACTLY when to get rid of McNabb, and it appears that the former All-Pro is just about done. His starting stint in Minnesota was painful to watch – it appears that his skills left him very quickly, and he will be out of the league by next year.
Playoffs: Green Bay is obviously a shoo-in and likely will get the #1 seed overall – the only regular-season drama left for them is to see who finally beats them (my money is on Detroit on Thanksgiving Day – you have to pressure Rodgers to beat him, and Detroit can pressure anyone). Chicago and Detroit might well be the two wild-card teams, although the Lions have a tougher path with two games left against the Packers. Green Bay plays both teams the last two weeks of the season, and those games will almost certainly have huge playoff implications.
NFC East
Biggest surprise: New York Giants (6-3; my prediction was 7-9). Time to take back all I said in the preseason about Eli Manning – the man has played brilliantly thus far, and is on pace for almost 5,000 yards and 30+ touchdowns. However, recall that I warned about this team’s late-season schedule and their tendency to collapse under Coughlin – after Philly this week they play @NO, GB, @DAL, WASH, @NYJ, DAL. The only ‘gimme’ game there is Washington…if they lose to Philly this week, you could still be looking at an 8-8 or even 7-9 season for the Giants.
Biggest disappointment: Philadelphia Eagles (3-6; my prediction was 12-4). Where to begin? The defense has been porous, DeSean Jackson has become a sideshow, the defensive front seven has been poor (particularly the linebackers), and head coach Andy Reid has done a poor job outside of his typical bye-week brilliance. The loss last week to Arizona was likely the dagger for this team’s playoff chances, but if that game wasn’t must-win this week’s tilt against the Giants certainly is. I expect some rebound here, but by and large the damage is done, and I don’t see the Eagles getting past eight wins, much less making the playoffs. The lesson, as usual: QB is important, but so is line play – on BOTH sides of the ball.
Playoffs: Wow, tough call here. It’s really going to come down to the head-to-head meetings between the Giants and Cowboys in weeks 14 and 17 – I think 10-6 definitely wins the division, and 9-7 might even be enough. Dallas has the schedule advantage and their underlying stats are better – I’m going to say that Dallas makes it in, but they will be the 4th seed and have a tough road in the playoffs.
AFC West
Biggest surprise: Um, pass? Seriously, I don’t think there’s been a pleasant surprise out of the whole division this season. Oakland might have to suffice since they are 5-4 and lead the other three teams by one game…but all four teams have allowed more points than they’ve scored, all are 2-2 in the division so far, and all appear to be fundamentally flawed teams.
Biggest disappointment: San Diego (4-5; I predicted 11-5). Perhaps it’s time to acknowledge that being a good coach DOES matter, and conversely when a team has a bad coach, the evidence is eventually inescapable. I believe the Chargers are at that point….Norv Turner’s career record is 103-110. His playoff record is 4-4, and he’s won more than one playoff game in a season exactly once – and that was his first season in San Diego. His teams have perennially underachieved in one way or another – the 2010 Chargers led the league on offense and defense, yet missed the playoffs; his best-ever team, the 2009 Chargers, went 13-3 but lost their only playoff game…and there are plenty more examples. The NFL is a bottom-line business, and the bottom line is that Turner has NEVER maximized the talent he’s been given to coach.
Playoffs: This is pretty hard, but like any hard multiple-choice question, let’s eliminate the most unlikely candidates…Kansas City was already struggling, mainly due to massive injury problems, and now their QB is gone for the year, and Tyler Palko will take his place. Now, it’s entirely possible that Palko is an improvement over Cassel, but either way this team wasn’t going anywhere. In Denver, the euphoria of Tebowmania will eventually give way to the stark reality – you cannot run 90% of the time in the NFL and beat good teams. I hate to beat up on Tebow, he seems like a great guy and I’m actually rooting for him…but make him a running back already and get it over with. He is simply NOT an NFL-caliber QB, and Denver’s defense is nowhere near good enough to win consistently.
That leaves us with the Chargers and Raiders – the Raiders are a game up and are 1-0 against San Diego. Both have three home and four road games remaining, and I judge their remaining schedules to be about even. Oakland overpaid for QB Carson Palmer, but maybe they did it because they saw an opening to win the division right now. San Diego has more talent, and maybe they will get off the canvas one more time…but I’m picking the Raiders to squeak into the playoffs as the #4 seed at 9-7.
AFC South
Biggest surprise: Most would say Houston, but I saw them coming…so I’ll say Tennessee. I moved the Titans up when I heard that Manning underwent neck surgery, figuring they were likely to be the #2 team in the division, but they have been far more competitive than I expected. QB Matt Hasselbeck has performed well above my expectations, and while the running game has been a disappointment the defense has by and large played well (excepting their beatings from Pittsburgh and Houston). At 5-4 and with several tough games ahead, they aren’t going to make the playoffs, but they are a tough spoiler team for the Falcons and Saints down the stretch.
Biggest disappointment: Indianapolis in a landslide (0-10; I predicted about 7-9 after news of Manning’s surgery). Well, now we know just how valuable Peyton Manning really was to the Colts – and also how devoid of talent the team really is without him to single-handedly win games. What a disaster on both sides of the ball! Aside from a 3-point loss to Pittsburgh and a 4-point loss to the Chiefs, they have been utterly uncompetitive all season – and with the Pats, Ravens, and Texans still on the schedule, they are certain to do no better than 2-14. They play Carolina after this week’s bye, and if they lose that game there’s a very good chance that they will go 0-16. How the mighty have fallen.
Playoffs: Sunday afternoon I would have said Houston without thinking twice, and would even have picked them to get the #2 seed. The loss of QB Matt Schaub makes predictions all but impossible – if Matt Leinart struggles as bad as he did with Arizona, this team might end up 10-6 or even 9-7. However, the division is weak, the schedule is easy, and I think the Texans will still win the division fairly easily….but their likelihood of earning a bye took a significant hit with the loss of Schaub. Tennessee will compete but will finish around .500 and not threaten for a playoff slot.
AFC East
Biggest surprise: Despite their recent swoon, I have to choose the Buffalo Bills. I had them pegged as the worst team in football, a team utterly devoid of interesting players – of course, they then started out 5-2, beating some good teams along the way. It appears that reality is starting to set in for the Bills, as they’ve been destroyed the past two weeks, but the schedule lightens considerably down the stretch and another three or four wins seems perfectly reasonable – and if they can upset the Jets or Pats, they are still a dark horse contender. Either way, they’ve proven far more interesting than I expected.
Biggest disappointment: Most would say the Jets, and I wouldn’t argue much – but I’m going with the Patriots (6-3; I predicted 12-4). However, while they’ve disappointed thus far due to their porous defense and the beatings the Giants and Steelers laid on them, they still will walk away with the division – they have seven games remaining, and not one of those teams has a winning record except the Bills. My concern is that this team is starting to look a lot like the 2009-2010 Colts – no defense, poor running game, only a great QB separating them from a collapse. You cannot win championships without a total team effort, and the Patriots’ defense simply isn’t up to the task at this point.
Playoffs: As mentioned, I expect the Pats to cruise to a division title – they have the easy schedule, they lead the Jets by a game, plus they swept New York so they have the tiebreaker if it came to that. The Jets also have a fairly easy schedule, they have a great chance to win their next four games and finish 11-5 or 10-6…either way, they should grab the last playoff slot.
AFC North
Biggest surprise: Cincinnati Bengals (6-3; I predicted 4-12). Andy Dalton has been VERY good as a rookie – he has shown poise and leadership well beyond his years, and AJ Green has been as good as advertised at wide receiver. However, the schedule gets decidedly rougher now – they still have two games against the Ravens, another against the Steelers, and a game against the Texans. The other three games are very winnable, so 9-7 is a legitimate possibility for the Bengals – and if they manage to beat the Ravens this week, then they are in the drivers’ seat for a wild-card berth – but their best defender, corner Leon Hall, was lost for the season against Pittsburgh and I expect that this team will regress from here on. Even if they only win a couple more games, this team exceeded all expectations.
Biggest disappointment: Some would say the Ravens, and their inconsistency is certainly a concern – but I’m taking the Cleveland Browns (3-6; I predicted 7-9 but noted how rough their finishing schedule was – I expected them to be no worse than 5-4 at this point). Their defense hasn’t played badly, they’ve been in most games, but their offense has been terrible both rushing and passing. The worst news is that schedule – after playing the Jags at home this week, Cleveland is on the road four of the next five weeks, and they play the Ravens TWICE in that span , as well as Cincy and Pittsburgh. There’s no way they can escape this schedule with less than 10 losses, and if they cannot defeat Jacksonville this week they might not win another game (although they are a definite upset candidate against the Ravens or Steelers because they play good defense).
Playoffs: Both Baltimore and Pittsburgh will make it – both have relatively easy schedules down the stretch. Both have to play the 49ers, but Baltimore has the Bengals twice and what could be a tricky road trip to San Diego left, while the Steelers’ only other tough opponent is Cincy at home. Baltimore had the advantage by beating the Steelers twice, but good teams beat the teams they are supposed to beat as well – and the Ravens have lost to the Jags, Seahawks, and Titans, showing an alarming lack of focus in the process. Last week’s loss to Seattle may well cost them the division, and at the very least it makes this week’s game between Cincy and Baltimore almost a must-win for both squads. I think Baltimore will win, but I think they will stub their toe and lose two more times – while I think Pittsburgh’s bye week comes at the best possible time, and they will only lose one game the rest of the year. I think the Steelers will still win the division and get a first-round bye…possibly even the top seed overall, but I think it will come down to the last week, and I think the Ravens and Steelers will meet again in January.
Predicted playoff seeds (in order)
NFC: Green Bay (bye), San Francisco (bye), New Orleans, Dallas, Chicago, Atlanta
AFC: Pittsburgh (bye), New England(bye), Houston, Oakland, Baltimore, NY Jets
Next week, we’ll have the annual Thanksgiving post. What are YOU thankful for this year? Email me and if I get enough response, I’ll include some excerpts in the column.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
