This has been one weird playoff season – the National League champion Cardinals saw their starting pitchers allow 19 runs in 24 innings in the NLCS, and average four innings per start – yet they won in six games. The AL champs, the Texas Rangers, allowed a staggering 13 home runs in six games – and gave them up to a Detroit team that ranked mid-pack in home runs during the season – yet they, too, won in six games. After a pitching-heavy regular season, the playoffs have been more or less a version of Home Run Derby, especially in the first five innings. What does this mean for the World Series, and who has the advantage? Let’s take a closer look.
Texas vs. St. Louis
Key Stats: I’ve already gone over St. Louis’ starting pitching – Texas’ wasn’t much better; they threw a few more innings but allowed more runs (see below). The Cardinals are the first team to advance despite having their bullpen throwing more innings than their starters – not a single Cards hurler threw more than five innings! The flip side of that coin was the dominance of the bullpens…these stats are so remarkable, let me just list them below:
Cardinals Starters 24.1 IP, 36H, 19R, 8HR, 8BB, 19K
Cardinals Relievers 28.2 IP, 15H, 6R, 1HR, 6BB, 21K
Rangers Starters 28.2 IP, 36H, 21R, 9HR, 16BB, 25K
Rangers Relievers 27.1 IP, 15H, 4R, 4HR, 6BB, 25K
Frankly, both teams’ goal thus far has been to survive the first five innings with any kind of a lead, then hand it over to their bullpens. Given the explosive nature of both offenses, that’s a trend I expect to continue…the real questions are, will a starter step up in this series at some point, and will one of these bullpens crack under the strain?
Offensively, both teams were fantastic in the LCS round – the Cardinals hit .310 as a team and slugged almost .500 – although interestingly, they hit the same number of doubles and homers as Milwaukee, and only walked a few more times – the difference was that they hit 16 more singles than the Brewers. In any case, 43 runs in a 6-game series is tough to beat.
Texas wasn’t quite as dominant, Detroit out-homered them 13 to 7 (although Texas hit 17 doubles to nine for the Tigers) and drew more walks than the Rangers – but again, Texas had 10 more singles and outscored the Tigers 39-25.
Key Batters: St. Louis’ David Freese could not be stopped in the LCS – he hit .545 (12 for 22) with three doubles and three homers! Albert Pujols was almost as good, going 11 for 23 (.478) with four doubles and two homers. On the flip side, Rafael Furcal hit only .185 (5 for 27) and has hit only .204 thus far in October – if he continues to struggle, LaRussa may want to move him from the top of the order.
For Texas, Nelson Cruz hit an unbelievable six home runs in six games – including PULLING a 100-MPH Verlander fastball off the left-field foul pole, one of the most amazing home runs I’ve seen. David Murphy went 7 for 17 in limited action, but no other Texas hitter really stood out, although none were terrible either – Adrian Beltre only went 6 for 27, but he contributed three doubles and was playing hurt.
In the World Series, my key batter to watch for the Cards is Lance Berkman – he had six singles last round, but generally wasn’t a factor, and I expect the Rangers to work around Pujols a lot more than the Brewers did. No one can hit as well as Freese did last round for long, so you have to figure he will cool off some – Berkman and Matt Holliday have to be ready to pick up the slack.
For Texas, my key batters are Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli. Hamilton has played pretty well but hasn’t hit a postseason home run yet – he needs to have a big game or two for Texas. Napoli is a big-time power threat for Texas and is capable of a home run binge similar to Cruz – look for him to have a couple of big home runs for the Rangers.
Key Pitchers: We’ve gone over the last round’s results on the mound, but I’d like to focus on Texas’ Alexi Ogando and St. Louis’ Fernando Salas. Ogando was a starter most of the season, but has been dominant out of the bullpen – so dominant, in fact, that I think they should have started him and moved another starter to the pen, but I doubt they will make that move now. In the ALCS Ogando pitched 7.2 innings, allowed only three hits, two walks, and struck out 10. He is the key ‘bridge’ between the starters and closer Neftali Feliz. Salas was the Cards’ closer much of the year, was replaced after struggling around the All-Star break, but has found his second wind in the playoffs – he threw six innings in the LCS, allowing only three hits and one run while striking out six. LaRussa will mix and match relievers in the late innings more than anyone, but Salas is key if/when a starter fails to get through six innings in the Series.
For this Series, my key St. Louis pitcher should come as no surprise – Chris Carpenter. The Cards’ ace clearly didn’t have his good stuff in his Game Three start, but managed to wobble through five innings and spare the bullpen a bit. He will have extra rest for his Game One start Wednesday night, and if anyone is going to step up and produce a dominant start in this series, my money is on Carpenter.
For Texas, my key pitcher is Colby Lewis – he’s the only right-handed starter the Cards will face, and he has tremendous stuff – but he’s been inconsistent, alternating great starts with poor ones for much of the season. Pujols, Freese, and Holliday have an advantage against the Texas southpaws – Lewis will have to neutralize that advantage in his (presumed) two starts.
Managers: I list this category mainly because I see this as a HUGE edge for the Cardinals…the worse the starting pitching is, the more the manager has to think ahead, be ready to make the appropriate moves (both on the mound and with double-switches in NL parks)…and LaRussa shines at times like those. He proved it over and over again in the LCS; he rarely made a bad move after he went to the ‘pen and he always seemed one step ahead of the game. LaRussa also doesn’t run his teams into many outs. Texas manager Ron Washington lost some of my faith by walking Cabrera with no one on base and one out – NO ONE is good enough to warrant that treatment in a tie game. If this series becomes a slugfest with a lot of pitching changes and tactics, St. Louis has the edge; on the other hand, please remember that while a manager DOES have an impact, the players on the field clearly have a vastly superior impact and it’s rare that a manager will mean the difference in a series.
Final thoughts and prediction: VERY tough series to figure out, two great offenses, two reeling starting rotations, two dominant bullpens. The team that gets the better starting pitching will win – I know that seems obvious, but keep in mind both of these teams got very poor starting last round, so that’s a HUGE variable in this series. I like Texas’ deep bullpen, I like their lineup…but I think the best players in this series are on the Cardinals’ side – the best hitter is Pujols, the best starter is Carpenter, and while the bullpens seem even, I trust LaRussa to manage his more than I trust Washington. CARDS IN SIX, but literally no result would surprise me except a series sweep by either team.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
