Breaking out the bullet points today as we look around several different sports….
-Looking back at the Masters, I cannot remember such a wild Sunday afternoon of golf. Eight to 10 golfers had legitimate shots at the crown during that round, and it seemed fitting that someone would finish with four birdies in a row to win. For all the talk of Tiger Woods’ swing changes, his swing looked fine to me – in fact, for much of the weekend, I thought he was a tough as ever tee to green. However, if these putting ‘yips’ are a chronic issue for him now – and after last season, one has to think they might be – he will never dominate again.
People constantly underrate the importance of the short game, especially the importance of making ‘gimme’ putts. Most pro tournaments are won by one to three strokes – and with 90-150 players in the field, that means someone is going to have a hot putting week. To dominate the sport over a long stretch, you simply HAVE to make just about every putt inside five feet, and for 10 years that’s exactly what Woods did. He missed three ridiculously short putts on Masters Sunday, putts you NEVER saw him miss before, and frankly those misses, and others like them the previous three days, cost him an easy win. The rest of his game is definitely still there, and he isn’t done winning – even bad putters have hot weeks – but if you want to gauge whether he will return to his former glory, all you have to do is watch how he’s hitting the flatstick.
-Every year at this time there are a few surprise baseball teams, and every year the hype starts to get out of hand by the end of April about them. Sometimes, like last year’s Padres, teams manage to play above their heads for most or all of the season – but more often, by the All-Star break they are revealed to be flash-in-the-pan teams. Interestingly, so far the two biggest surprises are in the same division – the Indians and Royals. Cleveland’s hitting has been about what I expected so far – and if Grady Sizemore stays healthy, they should be a pretty good hitting team – but the pitching has been the shocker. Opponents have hit only .222 against them, a number that is unsustainable. By June the team ERA will be well north of 4.00, and the record will be .500 at best. However, there is hope for Indians fans, because some of the pitchers appear to have real potential, and if the hitting holds up there may be an opportunity for Cleveland to compete in 2012.
The Royals have an even brighter long-term future than the Indians, but in my opinion their 2011 will go south even faster than Cleveland’s. Already their rotation is suspect, and their best pitcher, closer Joakim Soria, is off to a terrible start (and I wonder if perhaps he’s injured). At bat, Billy Butler is the real deal and I’ve long believed in Alex Gordon, so it’s possible he’s finally breaking out – but the rest of the lineup has very little 2011 potential. Soon the AL Central will go back to normal, I don’t really see a breakout here for this season, but for the Royals in particular this could be a 2013 preview of a real powerhouse as their farm system bears fruit.
-The Pirates got off to a torrid start by their meager standards – standing at .500 after 16 games would count as amazing only for the Bucs – but already the wheels have begun to fall off. Their embarrassing sweep in Florida underscored some key weaknesses: they strike out FAR too often, their starting pitching is still very much in flux, and while I like the top of their lineup, the bottom third is a bunch of out machines. Now, they aren’t nearly as bad as they looked in Florida – no major league team is – but any dreams of 80 wins should be out of the fans’ minds now – it’s likely to be another long season at PNC. As usual, look for individual developments, including Pedro Alvarez reducing his strikeouts, seeing if Charlie Morton’s sinker really makes him the new Brandon Webb (watch his walk numbers), and can Neil Walker get on base enough? The answers to those questions, and not win-loss totals, will determine how successful this season is for the Bucs.
-On to the NHL playoffs – some early surprises, and certainly some very entertaining series so far. I am shocked that Phoenix was swept by the Red Wings – certainly we all know about the Wings’ talent, but I liked Phoenix’ system and thought they’d put up more of a fight. Detroit needs the rest more than any other team and now they have to be among the Western Conference favorites.
-Vancouver has lost that status, as they continue to show a lack of killer instinct. After breaking out to a relatively easy 3-0 series lead, they have been absolutely CRUSHED in games 4 and 5 and now head back to Chicago reeling. Even if they eventually finish off Chicago, I can no longer place much faith in this group – they go through this every single playoff season.
-San Jose looked like they were about to pull their annual choke job, going down 4-0 in game 3 to LA, but then they stunningly scored five goals in 20 minutes, then six more in game 4 to take a commanding lead. If this sleeping giant really has awakened, they have to be the Western favorites right now.
-In the East, Philly continues their Jekyll-and-Hyde season, getting shut out twice and scoring eight goals in the other two games. The big story is switching goalies so quickly – Bobrovsky is out, Boucher is in, and as I said in the playoff preview I do not think Boucher can lead a team to the Cup. Philly needs Pronger back, and they need ‘Bob’ to find his game if they have any hopes of a Cup.
-Boston lost their first two home games, but then won two in Montreal, including a dramatic comeback in game 4 – this series could go in any direction now. I can’t see either of these teams winning a Cup as currently constructed.
-Washington seems to have figured out this playoff thing – they have become comfortable playing low-scoring games, but when they got down 3-0 in game 4 they turned on the offense and came storming back to win in 2OT. That’s exactly the sort of thing the 2008-2009 Pens teams did on their way to the Finals – this is the team to beat in the East.
-Pittsburgh continues to amaze me. Even with Kunitz suspended, they totally dominated play in game 4 and richly deserved the win. The problem is that they can grind teams down, but scoring goals is a real problem – they have very few finishers. I think they will finish off Tampa on Saturday, but if Crosby cannot return (more on him in a minute), then it is unlikely they can make the Finals. Only one team in the last 15 years won a Cup without an active 30-goal scorer, and only one team has won the Cup without finishing in the top six in scoring over the same span (both were the 2000 Devils). Without Malkin and Crosby, this isn’t a team that can win high-scoring games, and against the Caps, Red Wings, Sharks, etc., occasionally it will take four or five goals to win. Still, this is the hardest-working Pens team in my lifetime, probably ever, and it’s a treat to watch them win with so little offensive punch.
As for Crosby, I was all set to talk about his concussion and how crazy some of the discussions about him have gotten, but the Post-Gazette’s Dejan Kovacevic beat me to the punch – read his take on the situation, he sums it up quite well. I’d also remind you that last summer Twins slugger Justin Morneau suffered a concussion in June and missed the rest of the season, and was not cleared to play until this March. Concussions are VERY unpredictable, and no one knows when Sid will be back. Recall what happened to Marc Savard and Eric Lindros (among others) who tried to come back too soon from concussions – I know the Cup is there for the taking this season, but I’ll pass on that if it means Sid is healthy for the rest of his career – and the rest of his life. This situation is just the latest reminder that concussions are VERY serious business, and we need to be more proactive with this injury at all levels – ESPECIALLY with youth sports.
Next week – NHL Round Two predictions. Happy Easter!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
