Earlier this week, we previewed the AL, with a focus on the AL East – today we will preview the senior circuit, with a focus on the NL Central, home of those lovable losers, our Pittsburgh Pirates. However, let’s start out west.
NL WEST
Predicted Standings:
1.) Colorado (3rd in 2010)
2.) San Francisco (1st)
3.) LA Dodgers (4th)
4.) San Diego (2nd)
5.) Arizona (5th)
Notes: I foresee a bit of a shakeup in this division in 2011, but I think the Diamondbacks are a good bet to be the worst team again – frankly, aside from Justin Upton I don’t see much to get excited about in Phoenix. Stephen Drew is an above-average hitter at SS, but the rest of the infield has questions. CF Chris Young has never met expectations, but he had a surprisingly solid 2010 and seems like he might have turned the corner a bit. However, any lineup counting on big things from Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady is suspect. The pitching will be better than 2010 – especially in the bullpen, where it could hardly be worse (ERA well over 5.00 in 2010, by far the worst in the league), and there’s reason to be excited about pitchers like Ian Kennedy and Dan Hudson, but 2011 looks like another down year in the Valley of the Sun.
San Diego was THE surprise team of 2010, finishing tied with the Giants and losing the 1-game playoff. I LOVE stories like the 2010 Padres, teams like that are what make baseball great – but the sad fact is, most out-of-nowhere teams like that tend to regress in a big way the following year. In the Padres’ case, that tendency is exacerbated by the departure of their best hitter, Adrian Gonzalez, and an injury to their ace pitcher, Mat Latos. The Padres say that Latos’ shoulder is progressing and they think he will be fine in a week or two, but anytime I hear about young pitchers with arm trouble in March I drastically lower my expectations for their season – most times, an arm injury now leads to significant missed time at some point in the season. With Gonzalez gone and Latos questionable, I don’t see how the Padres can even finish above .500, much less contend again for the West crown.
The once-proud Dodgers appear to be a mess, especially on offense (this is a recurring theme in this division, so don’t be surprised to see a lot of low ERA’s in the West). Even assuming Rafael Furcal can stay healthy – and he’s missed major time two of the past three seasons, so that’s a longshot – there’s simply not a lot of elite hitting talent here. LF, 3B, C, and 2B have the potential to be significantly below-average, and while Matt Kemp is a good player he’s not enough to carry an offense. The Dodgers will rely on their starters to carry them, and it’s possible that they will. He doesn’t yet have the notoriety, but I believe Clayton Kershaw to be the ‘next big thing’ on the hill in the NL, and the rotation is as deep as any in the division – possibly any in the league, depending on how heavily one weighs fifth starters. If L.A. had even average offensive potential, I’d like their chances to compete for the division – and I should mention that I don’t see all that much separating the top three teams in this division – but I think the Dodgers’ offense will keep them from first place.
I’m picking the defending champs to finish second in the division, mainly because, like LA, I’m not sold on their offense. The Giants decided to bring their team back almost intact for 2011, except for at SS where they are trying to squeeze one more season out of Miguel Tejada. This will prove costly if they do not cut bait early; Tejada’s days as even a mediocre defender are long gone, and his bat won’t come close to making up for the lack of range. A full season of Buster Posey will help the offense, and I do think that Pablo Sandoval will rebound somewhat, but this still won’t be a great offense – meaning that the rotation will have to be stellar again. I LOVE this rotation, but they’ve been exceedingly durable – their top 4 starters all made at least 33 starts, and in 2009 the same four pitchers each made at least 29 starts – in short, they are due for some missed time. I will say that if the rotation stays injury-free, the Giants are clearly the division favorites – but I believe that at least one will miss time with injury, and that will be just enough for them to slip into second place.
The Rockies had a lot of things go terribly wrong in 2010, yet they were only a game out of first place on September 18. They proceeded to lose 13 of their last 14 games, so their season is pretty much forgotten, but they still won 83 games despite Todd Helton’s complete collapse, despite having only one hitter play 140+ games (none played 150) and only two starters make 30+ starts (and one of those, Jason Hammel, wasn’t very good). In other words, I see a lot of room for bounceback this season – I believe Helton will be better than he was last year, I believe an extra 30 games from Troy Tulowitzki will make a big difference and, most of all, I believe the rotation will be a lot more stable than it was in 2010. This isn’t a GREAT team by any means – even if the rotation is healthy, there are questions about the fourth and fifth starters, and aside from Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, the offense seems average – but the NL West is full of flawed teams, and I think that Colorado has enough talent to compete for, and ultimately win, the division – but I expect this race to be a great one, likely coming down to the season’s final days.
NL EAST
Predicted Standings:
1.) Atlanta (2nd in 2010)
2.) Philadelphia (1st)
3.) Florida (3rd)
4.) New York (4th)
5.) Washington (5th)
Notes: It seems to me that almost everyone has already awarded Philly the NL East crown, based on their pedigree (three straight division titles) and their dominant rotation. However, I think their offense will weigh them down and allow Atlanta to pass them. This division is VERY stratified; I see Philly and Atlanta as the only true contenders, with the Marlins a notch below and the Mets and Nationals competing for the basement – let’s take a brief look at NY and DC first.
Before I began looking at the numbers, I REALLY wanted to pick the Nationals to finish third or fourth – they have some young talent, they acquired Jayson Werth, and my bias is I hate picking teams to finish last every year. However, upon further review, the Nationals are NOT likely to make major strides this season. Losing Stephen Strasburg was a big blow to a rotation that frankly isn’t going to be very good – and while they added Werth, they lost Adam Dunn, meaning they really gained no ground there offensively. They have WAY too many hitters who don’t get on base enough – aside from Werth and Ryan Zimmerman, this is not a good offense at all. Add all that up, and you’ve got a 70-win team at best.
As for the Mets, they have elements of a good offense, especially if Carlos Beltran is mostly healthy this season and Ike Davis is for-real. What they do not have is anything resembling a good rotation – as it is currently constructed (due to Johan Santana’s injury), I think it is on par with what the Pirates will have on the mound – and that’s not a contending situation. If Chris Young finds his old form and pitchers like Jon Niese take a big step forward, there might be some hope here…but I see this as a .500 team at best.
Now we come to the Marlins, perennially one of the hardest teams to forecast. They always have a lot of roster turnover, they always seem to have a lot of good young talent to plug in – but obviously not all of that talent pans out, so preseason predictions are even more guesswork with Florida than they are with most teams. I like their young hitting talent, and Hanley Ramirez is likely to have a better season than he did in 2010 (and that wasn’t bad by any stretch); this was a slightly above-average offense a year ago, and I see it about the same in 2011, albeit with potential to improve as the young hitters improve later in the season. The pitching is more of a mixed bag – Josh Johnson is supremely talented, but also a very high injury risk; Anibal Sanchez had a successful return in 2010, but is likely to regress somewhat; and the rest of the rotation is loaded with risk. This COULD be an above-average rotation, but I think it’s likely that some combination of injury and ineffectiveness will relegate this staff to below-average status – and prevent the Marlins from being true contenders. However, as usual, Florida is a legitimate dark horse candidate.
In Philly, we won’t take much time discussing the rotation – Halladay, Hamels, Oswalt, and Lee have the potential to be the best rotation since the 90’s Braves. There’s also no reason to believe this group will not stay healthy – all of them are seasoned and have shown impressive durability, and while every pitcher is an injury risk, I’d be hard-pressed to bet against this group to make 120 starts. The questions are everywhere else – in the bullpen, an already-thin group now has to make do without closer Brad Lidge to start the season, and they are talking about having 39 year old Jose Contreras start the year as the closer – a risky move, to be sure. However, my biggest concern here is the offense. With Werth gone and Chase Utley sidelined indefinitely, this team suddenly has a lot of problems – Jimmy Rollins’ offense has been missing for two years, Raul Ibanez began showing his age last season, and catcher Carlos Ruiz had a season totally out of line with his career – he batted .300 and had an OBP of .400 at age 31, when his career BA is .260 and career OBP is .353. What worries me the most, however, is that Ryan Howard is now 31, and his numbers really slipped last season – players with his skillset generally do not age well, and if this is the beginning of a long-term decline, the Phillies are in even more trouble. Frankly, this is now an average to below average offense; and the rotation will HAVE to be great for this team to win 90+ games. I think the pitching is up to that challenge if they get Utley back in May or June – but if he’s gone for even longer, then Philly’s chances of a division four-peat are remote in my opinion. I think this is an 85-90 win team with the Opening Day roster.
The Braves cannot match the Phillies’ rotation depth, but their top three starters (Hudson, Hanson, and Lowe) figure to be among the best trio in the NL. The Braves also have a lot of pitching talent on the farm, so they figure to be able to put a good starting corps together most of the season. They also boast an offense that should be among the upper third of the NL, especially with the addition of 2B Dan Uggla. If Jason Heyward continues to improve in his second season (and that’s a good bet), the Braves could have the best offense at catcher, 2B, and RF of any NL team – and that’s a great start to a championship team. They also have underrated Martin Prado available at just about any position. The Braves do have holes – they have a completely untried 1B in Freddie Freeman, Chipper Jones is probably just about done, and Nate McLouth has been AWFUL for Atlanta – but it looks to me like every NL team has lineup holes, and I like Atlanta’s overall lineup better than most.
The bullpen, however, could be the Braves’ Achilles heel. They are starting 2011 with a cast of largely unknown relievers, and if they fail to do the job it could cost the Braves a division crown. New manager Fredi Gonzalez’ biggest challenge will be finding bullpen roles that work for his relievers. Overall, though, I think the Braves have enough to overtake Philly for tops in the East.
NL CENTRAL
Predicted Standings:
1.) Milwaukee (4th in 2010)
2.) Cincinnati (1st)
3.) St. Louis (2nd)
4.) Chicago Cubs (5th)
5.) Pittsburgh (6th)
6.) Houston (4th)
Notes: We’ll save the Pirates for last…I foresee a really wild divisional race in the Central, with as many as four teams vying for the title. Houston will not be among them – only Pittsburgh scored less runs than Houston in the NL last year, and no one hit less home runs. Hunter Pence is a good hitter, and 3B Chris Johnson had a promising debut in 2010…and that’s about the extent of their offense as I see it. The rotation is decent with Myers and Rodriguez, but there’s not a lot of depth. In short, the Astros might be the most boring team in baseball – they won’t score much, they won’t win much, they have no budding stars, but they won’t be terrible either – probably 70 wins or so.
The Cubs fell on hard times last year in a big way, mostly due to injury – only two pitchers started more than 23 games, and only one batter played in over 150 games. They should be healthier in 2011, but with a couple of notable exceptions, this is an aging lineup, and injuries will be part of the package. I think Soriano is what he is, but players like Aramis Ramirez and newcomer Carlos Lee can be expected to improve over their 2010 performances, and young SS Starlin Castro looks like the real deal as well. This won’t be the top-notch offense of 2008, but some improvement seems likely.
On the hill, they have above-average talent, but they must get consistent work from Matt Garza and in particular Carlos Zambrano. The bullpen is probably the team’s biggest strength, especially closer Carlos Marmol. I see improvement and a good chance at 82-86 wins, but I still don’t see quite enough hitting to truly contend – and with the age up and down the lineup, I think the Cubs’ window is closing rapidly.
The Cardinals were my co-favorites to win this division – until Adam Wainwright was lost for the season. Without him, I believe the Cards simply won’t have enough pitching to keep up with the Brew Crew and the Reds. They still have Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia had an amazing debut last season, but the rest of the rotation is highly suspect. The bullpen is also a source of concern – closer Ryan Franklin has been getting it done with smoke and mirrors, and the rest of the ‘pen is fairly unknown as well. Pitching Coach Dave Duncan has a well-deserved reputation for getting the most out of his staff, but he’s got his work cut out for him this summer.
Offensively, the Cards are as usual – a ‘stars and scrubs’ outfit. They have two bona-fide stars in Pujols and Holliday, and a budding star in Colby Rasmus – but they also have weak hitting at the other infield slots and no depth to speak of. Overall this is a team with absolutely no margin for error, and a team that in my opinion, just won’t have the horses, especially on the mound, to win the division.
The Reds made a huge leap last season to win the Central, and their offense led the charge – they got above-average production from every position except SS. Among their regulars, only Rolen and Ramon Hernandez are over 30, so it’s reasonable to expect their offense to remain potent in 2011 – and in fact players like Votto, Bruce, and Stubbs are young enough that further improvement is possible (a scary thought in Votto’s case, as he was named league MVP last season). The problem I see is the pitching, especially the rotation – with Johnny Cueto injured, this is no better than an average rotation, and consistency will likely be an issue all season. The bullpen has potential, especially flame throwing Aroldis Chapman, and I think this should be another very close race – but in the end, I think the Reds will give up too many runs to repeat as NL Central champs.
Milwaukee is in a completely win-now mode – slugger Prince Fielder can be a free agent after the season, so the team went for broke, trading almost all their good farm assets for 2009 AL Cy Young winner Zack Grienke and Blue Jays’ starter Shawn Marcum. Those two will team with Yovani Gallardo to form the top pitching trio in the division once Grienke recovers from a broken rib. Since the Brewers allowed the third-most runs in the league last year, clearly they picked the right area to address – and I think these moves will allow the Brewers to become an average to slightly above average run-prevention team. The bullpen also should be average to slightly above; John Axford and Kameron Loe were revelations in 2010 but the rest of the ‘pen still needs to be sorted out.
The offense is a given for this team, especially once Corey Hart returns in April – with Hart, Fielder, Weeks, Braun, and McGehee, this team has plenty of pop. I think that quintet at bat and the talented trio on the mound will be enough to give Milwaukee the Central crown.
Now, the Pirates…what a mess, as usual. They scored the fewest runs in 2010 and allowed the most, so the good news is, there’s nowhere to go but up – and offensively, I’m optimistic that they will improve. McCutchen has established himself as a top CF, Alvarez was promising in the second half, and if Tabata and Walker can just repeat what they did last year, the foundation of a solid offense is in place. There are still big questions at catcher and SS, and I need to see Walker repeat his success before I believe in him – his performance was way out of line with what he did in the minors – but I feel comfortable predicting that the Pirates will not be the worst offense in the league in 2011.
One would hope that they will improve on the mound as well, but there I’m less sure of their chances – I like James McDonald a lot, but as I said before an injury this early usually foretells problems for much of the season. Ross Ohlendorf lost his way last season and spring results are not encouraging either. Kevin Correia isn’t any sort of answer, and while Charlie Morton has worlds of talent, he has yet to translate that consistently. The only constant is Paul Maholm, who is a league-average starter at best. The bullpen is also a mixed bag, but with Meek and Hanrahan the team should be good at protecting late leads – I simply do not think they will have that many leads to protect.
Overall there are signs of improvement, and I doubt the team will lose 100 games again – but 80+ wins is a pipe dream, there are simply too many question marks in the rotation and at key positions. I think they will become a league-average offense, and that will be enough to get them to 70 wins and out of the NL Central cellar.
Enjoy the baseball!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
