Earlier this week we reviewed the NFC – which has, for the most part, been very unpredictable. Today we’ll look at the AFC, which has gone much more according to preseason predictions. Let’s start in the East once again.
AFC East
Who I picked: New England (predicted 11-5; currently 7-2)
Who is leading: New England tied with NY Jets (I predicted 9-7 for them)
I’d like to say I called this division mostly right, but if you had told me going in that Randy Moss would be traded after six games and that Danny Woodhead would be New England’s best RB, I’d have said 11-5 would take a miracle. No miracles, just Brady & Belichick as always…somehow, someway this team is the highest-scoring in the league after ripping apart the Steelers last week. The Pats have some very tough tests yet to come, starting this week against their old nemesis Indy…and I’m worried about their defense, especially against the pass, but as long as Brady is upright it seems they are a threat to win any game.
The Jets have been lucky AND good…lucky that they escaped Detroit and Cleveland the past two weeks with overtime wins, good in that they found a way and put a beating on the Pats earlier this season. In my preview I said they had great potential if Mark Sanchez made a big leap – well, he hasn’t been spectacular but he’s eliminated the big mistakes – and the way this team runs and defends, that’s really all he will need to do most weeks. Tomlinson will show his age soon I suspect, but Shonn Greene is a quality RB and they now have all sorts of receiving weapons. This is reminiscent of the ’05 Steelers during Ben’s second season, right down to the aging back getting one more crack at glory. For the ending to be the same Sanchez will have to win a tough game through the air in January…but for now, the schedule favors the Jets, and I think they will eke out a division title and likely a first-round bye as well. New England should be the top wildcard, and a team no one wants to face in the first round.
Elsewhere, it’s about as expected – the Dolphins were ok-not-great, but now with their top QBs out, they are a long shot to finish above .500. The Bills have shown a lot of fight, but at 1-9 it’s another lost season…although I expect them to upset a good team before it’s all over.
AFC South
Who I picked: Indy (predicted 12-4; currently 6-3)
Who is leading: Indy, with the Titans and surprising Jags a game back
Much like Brady, Manning seems to be able to will an offense to victory. His starting RB, TE, and two of his top three WRs are hurt – yet Manning’s numbers have taken only a slight hit and they remain atop the division. HOWEVER….they are 1-2 in the division, and their remaining schedule is very tough. They have to face the Pats, Chargers, Titans twice, Cowboys, and the Jaguars (who already beat them once). As beat-up as they are, I see at least two losses in there, maybe three – and while they will make the playoffs and probably win the division, I think they will not get a bye week and will have to travel to a cold place for their second game. In short, while I give Manning all the credit in the world for having this team at 6-3, I think they will be an early out in the playoffs – and there’s a chance that the schedule gets the best of them and they miss the playoffs entirely.
The Titans are a weird team to figure out – they have a very good point-differential, better than Indy’s, and they have scored a lot of points – but their offense has been totally shut down a few times as well, they’ve had a QB pass for over 200 times only twice (and lost one of those games), and they are coming off bad losses to San Diego and Miami. Assuming they beat a reeling Redskin squad, they will be 6-4 and control their own destiny – five of their final six games are in the division, including two against the Colts. If they can get their passing game in order and get Chris Johnson a little more running room, they are a dangerous team – I don’t trust their QB situation, but I think their game at Indy in Week 17 will decide the division. If that’s the case, I’m giving the nod to the Colts strictly on the basis of Manning and home field – but I think this division is really a toss-up right now.
Elsewhere, the Jaguars have won the games they were supposed to win and upset the Colts to get themselves into the playoff conversation – but they’ve been badly outscored on the season and they have four tough road games left. They have looked great on offense the last two weeks but don’t be fooled – Houston and Dallas have two of the worst defenses in the NFL. In short, the Jags aren’t really this good, and they will slide back over the next few weeks. The Texans were my pick to give the Colts a run (again) and they are underachieving, particularly on defense, and sliding back fast (again). With four tough road games left and home dates against the Ravens and Titans, I see no way that Houston can mount a comeback and be a threat to win the division…but they are a dangerous spoiler for the home stretch, as they play nothing but contenders the next five weeks. They’ll score an upset or two and likely finish strong, but 7-9 is about their level unfortunately.
AFC West
Who I picked: San Diego (predicted 11-5; currently 4-5)
Who is leading: Oakland (currently 5-4; predicted 6-10) and KC (predicted 9-7)
San Diego got off to their traditional slow start – but their path to another division title looks much harder this year. I correctly pegged the Chiefs as a threat, but who saw the Raiders coming on so strong? In any case, the Chargers this year are very similar to last year’s version – GREAT passing offense, mediocre rushing attack, average defense. They are the type of team that is never too far ahead or too far behind in any game – they can come back against just about anyone, but they aren’t great at holding leads. With four of their next five at home, it’s go-time for the Bolts – they should win this week and if they find a way to beat Indy next week (traditionally they give Indy fits), they are looking at an easy path to 10 wins. I do not think they are built for a deep playoff run – not enough balance, not enough defensive toughness – but I do think they are in good shape to leapfrog to the front of the AFC West.
The Raiders have parlayed a somewhat soft schedule (and an upset of the Chargers) into real contention. However, they have four tough road games left – if they manage to split those games, they have a real chance to pull off this miracle. The game in Pittsburgh is a real litmus test- Oakland isn’t a great passing team, and they don’t stop the run well, but they are rushing better than anyone in the league – 4.9 yards per carry! If they can run the ball against Pittsburgh, they can run on anyone and will likely be a threat to the end. I do not think they can pull it off though – their wideouts are nothing special, and while Jason Campbell is a vast improvement over JaMarcus Russell, he’s average at best. I look for the Raiders to finish 8-8…but it’s a big step forward for the Raiders.
The Chiefs are who I thought they were – young and hungry. They are still very inconsistent, but I believe this team is the future of the AFC West and have the tools to be a factor to the end this season. In addition, the Chiefs have the easiest schedule left of the contenders, with only three road games and only one of those is against a top team (SD). Now, they will likely lose at least one game they have no business losing – young teams are like that – but I expect them to be right there with the Chargers the rest of the way. If they manage to win in San Diego, they are the favorites, but I think they lose that game and the division. Look out in 2011, though!
Denver has a much better passing game than anyone expected, but that’s about all they have – they don’t run well and their defense cannot stop anyone. The rebuild continues in Denver, although they should put up some huge passing numbers the last seven games as they play some very poor secondaries.
AFC NORTH
Who I picked: Baltimore (predicted 11-5; currently 6-3)
Who is leading: Baltimore tied with Pittsburgh (I predicted 8-8 for the Steelers)
Baltimore is on-pace for my 11-5 prediction, but there are signs that Baltimore isn’t the great team most expected. They are only averaging 3.8 yards per rush, but they are allowing 4 yards per rush – unheard of in Baltimore! They also have only 16 sacks and have struggled against a wide variety of opponents. Their schedule is fairly easy down the stretch, so I still like them to win 10 or 11 games and win the division, but I’m not at all sold on their ability to win in the playoffs unless they start running the ball better.
The Steelers started out amazingly well, especially on defense…but it certainly appears that age is catching up to them on that side of the ball. They are beat-up along both lines, and while they have completely stopped opponents’ running games, they are allowing 67% of passes to be completed. Having said all that, there’s still a lot to like about this group – they have the most complete linebacking corps in the league, Mendenhall has become a true feature back, and Big Ben seems able to keep them in almost every game. The game against the Raiders is huge – it’s at home, against a team that is built around the run and who beat them at home a year ago. Beat the Raiders and then the Bills the following week, and suddenly they are 8-3 with a big game against the Ravens, then a 3-game homestand upcoming – easy to see 11 or 12 wins in that scenario. However, if they lose to the Raiders, all of a sudden at 6-4 the playoffs become very much a question mark. I think they will win the game and make the playoffs, but I think they will lose at Baltimore and that game will decide the division (and a 1st-round playoff bye).
The Browns have been very competitive and seem to have found a real answer at QB in Colt McCoy – Cleveland will continue to rebuild, and they will win three or four games down the stretch as their schedule is pretty light until Week 16. However, despite the optimism of my friend John B., the Browns are still at least a year away….they still need a good WR and some more help on defense, particularly the back seven. The Bengals appear to have missed their chance a year ago – Carson Palmer increasingly looks like he will never recapture his pre-2008 form. Palmer is still a decent QB but he makes too many mistakes in big situations for a veteran. In addition, the running game has disintegrated, and the defense gets no pressure on opposing QBs (only NINE sacks through nine games!) It’s a lost season in Cincy, and with aging, egotistical wideouts it’s an open question as to whether the Bengals will need to entirely rebuild their offense to compete again anytime soon.
Next week, some things to be thankful for as we roll out the annual Thanksgiving column.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
