**Editor’s note: this column was written before the Monday Night Eagles-Redskins game.
Well, the bye weeks are over, and as we head down the stretch the overwhelming favorites to win the Super Bowl are…unknown. Seriously, can you remember a year like this, when there’s no clear favorite, every team has a major flaw, and only FIVE teams are definitively out of the running after ten weeks? I have to tell you up front – I have NO clue how this will all play out. The surprises aren’t over yet, but let’s take a look inside each division and try to get some idea of the possibilities. We’ll look at my preseason predicted winners, who’s leading so far, and if there are any major surprises thus far.
NFC East
Who I picked: Dallas (predicted 11-5; currently 2-7)
Who is leading: NY Giants (predicted 7-9; currently 6-3)
Let’s start with a division most people had wrong in the preseason, the NFC East. If you follow the NFL at all you know what Dallas has gone through, and while they came up with a big win Sunday, their season is toast and they know it. Many will point to the loss of Tony Romo to injury, but the bigger issue in Dallas is their ‘D’. They have allowed 252 points through nine games, ranking them 30th out of 32 teams! I expect they will play better to finish up – really, it’s hard to play much worse – but it might be time for a major overhaul on the defensive side for 2011.
On the flip side, the Giants have rebounded from a terrible defensive season in 2009 to post very strong numbers this season – their offense is on almost the exact same pace as 2009. The schedule presents some challenges down the stretch, particularly two games against the Eagles…but the G-men should stay in the hunt to the end. The Eagles seem to be pulling it together, with injury or their QB situation the most likely barriers to success. I believe those two games against the Giants will determine the division winner, and I also believe the loser will make it as a wildcard. As for the Redskins, they’ve been surprisingly spunky, but this McNabb-Shanahan controversy could destroy their slim chances. I think they will win a few games but overall I think they will slide back in December.
NFC North
Who I picked: Green Bay (predicted 12-4; currently 6-3)
Who is leading: Packers tied with Chicago (predicted 6-10; currently 6-3)
Aside from a few injuries, Green Bay has been pretty much the team I expected: high-octane offense, decent defense, good enough to win the division. I think they are primed to go on a little run here and blow away the division, probably even getting a first-round bye. Why? We’ll talk about the Bears in a sec, but the rest of the division is not really a threat – Minnesota is imploding, and Detroit, while much-improved, has QB and consistency issues. All three of their losses have been by three points, while they’ve blown out several teams – good teams tend to win blowouts. They have a rough schedule ahead, with four road games including trips to NE and ATL, but I still like the Pack to go 11-5…which in the NFC might be the second-best record when it’s all said and done.
Now, the Bears. 6-3, yes, but how? Their O-line is a sieve, Jay Cutler is EXTREMELY hot and cold, their running game practically nonexistent…you’ve heard all that. What you probably haven’t heard about is their defensive renaissance. The Bears have allowed only 146 points thus far, second in the league (TRIVIA: who leads the league? Don’t look, guess; answer below, I’ll bet you will be surprised). The Bears allow only 3.5 yards per rush and have intercepted 14 passes, both of which have made up for their paltry 13 sacks. Part of this is real improvement, but part of it is, again, a weak schedule. Four of their wins have been against Carolina, Dallas, Detroit, and Buffalo. There are no ‘gimmies’ on their remaining schedule, and I look for Chicago to fall off the pace hard. Yes, they are 6-3, but I honestly think this team will finish either 9-7 or 8-8, as their defense gets tested more and Cutler continues to take a beating.
As for the rest of the division, not much to see – Favre’s decline mirrors the Vikings as a whole, and their loss this week just about cooked their goose. Detroit is showing improvement, but their loss to the woeful Bills just shows there’s still a lot of mountain to climb before they are contenders. I think Green Bay is the only true contender here.
TRIVIA ANSWER: Green Bay has allowed only 143 points, yet another reason I think they might be the best team in the NFC.
NFC SOUTH
Who I picked: New Orleans (predicted 11-5; currently 6-3)
Who is leading: Atlanta (predicted 10-6; currently 7-2)
Here is a great divisional race: the defending champs against the resurgent Falcons. I expected Atlanta to rebound this year, and they are set up to be the NFC’s #1 seed – they are nearly unbeatable at home since drafting Matt Ryan, and their toughest games left are at home (Green Bay, New Orleans). They do have four road games left, and I expect them to drop one of those, but all four are winnable games – and if they manage to go 2-1 at home from here on in, that’s a 12-4 record with a likelihood of winning a tiebreaker with the Saints. The Falcons have a lot of things working for them – stud receiver in Roddy White, a punishing running back, a defense that forces turnovers. I see only two warning signs: #1, they tend to over-rely on White for big plays, and #2 their defense isn’t particularly strong against the run – a weakness that might not matter against the Saints or Packers, but a team like the Giants might cause them some problems in January. Still, Atlanta is well-positioned.
The Saints also are in good shape to make the postseason, but I think they will be a wildcard – they also have four road games left, but unlike the Falcons all four are tough assignments and the Saints will likely drop at least one or two of those games. The Saints have been wracked by injury, especially at RB, and if they get healthy they will be a very tough out – but if they have to win three road games in January, their odds are not great. The loss to Cleveland at home looms large, but even larger will be their game at Atlanta on Dec. 27 – that game will likely be of great import to both squads.
Elsewhere, the Bucs are much better than I anticipated – 5-4 already, and I predicted 3-13 and no chance at a winning record. The lesson, as always – in the NFL, turnarounds can happen fast, especially in the NFC South. I think the Bucs will struggle a bit down the stretch, but they are no longer a pushover and seem poised to contend in 2011. The Panthers are what I thought the Bucs would be – terrible, made worse by their injuries at RB and QB. Definite contender for the #1 draft pick next year.
NFC WEST
Who I picked: 49ers (predicted 11-5; currently 3-6)
Who is leading: Seahawks (predicted 5-11; currently 5-4)
If you can figure this division out, please email me – this division is a morass of mediocrity, and it’s unclear to me who will emerge. Every team in the division has been outscored, and on the road these four teams are a combined 3-15! My preseason pick started 0-5, and while they seem to have found something of an answer at QB I think the 49ers have too much ground to make up, particularly with San Diego and Green Bay still on the schedule. Arizona is going nowhere, as they have serious QB and defensive issues (poor Larry Fitzgerald – he’s a 1-man offense down there now).
That leaves the Rams and Seahawks – both surprises, both deeply flawed teams, one riding a veteran QB for one more round, one with a rookie QB who seems to be on the fast track to stardom. The fact that St. Louis is younger and more talented on offense bodes well for their chances – however, they are 0-4 on the road and have four road games left, some in very tough environs (Denver, New Orleans, Seattle). I just cannot see them figuring out how to win in those places – maybe next year, but not yet. Seattle, on the other hand, has two of the division’s three road wins, and four home games. They also have a rough schedule, and I think chances are excellent that the first team to win eight games wins the division (looking at the schedules, I think a 7-9 division winner is a real possibility) – and I do not believe in Seattle at all – but the five wins they have are banked, and I think they can go 3-4 and eke out a title in what might be the worst division in NFL history. If Hasselbeck goes down again, though, all bets are off…and in this division, it really is pure guesswork, even Arizona going 5-2 and winning the division wouldn’t totally shock me.
So there you have it, the NFC at a glance – a jumbled-up mess for the most part, with only the Falcons and Packers really standing out above the rest. Next time we will take a look at the AFC, where the picture is slightly clearer at the top of three divisions.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
