Greetings readers…before we get into the predictions, I’m going to ask for your thoughts and prayers. An employee and friend of mine, Mary Wallace, was involved in a horrible accident last Sunday. Her injuries are extensive and will take months to recover from. My office is taking donations for her family to aid during this difficult time. If you choose to donate please contact me at the email address shown at the bottom of this column. Aside from the obvious personal tragedy here, this accident has impacted my office and means this column will not be as regular as I would like…I ask for your patience through this time.
I know I promised an NHL preview last week, and we’ll have that as part of this column, but it will be very abbreviated – basically my predicted standings and a comment about each team. However, we’ll start this week with a look at baseball’s second round of playoffs.
NLCS
Giants vs. Phillies: I wasn’t really correct about either team last round…I picked Atlanta to beat the Giants, and while I picked Philly to advance I also expected Cincy to give them a real scare. Not my best predictions…people will point to Halladay’s no-hitter as demoralizing the Reds, but I think blowing their game 2 lead is what really sent Cincy packing. San Francisco was a little bit lucky (they were going down 2 games to 1 until Brooks Conrad’s THIRD error of the game), but they got the pitching they needed to advance, while Atlanta simply had too many injuries. I confess I didn’t realize Prado would miss the series – but when Billy Wagner also went down, the Braves were in a lot of trouble. Still, every game was decided by 1-run, and the teams really were evenly matched.
This series will be billed as a pitchers’ duel, and rightly so – I submit that the top six starters in this series are among the best ever matched up. Many teams have had two hall-of-fame caliber talents in the rotation – few have had three, but it is clear that Philly has that kind of talent. While the Giants are young they have that potential as well – Lincecum you know, but Cain and Sanchez are off to wonderful starts to their careers. Lincecum-Halladay is a premier event and worth watching no matter who you root for. The Giants are the only team in the playoffs that can match the Phillies’ starters, and they actually have an advantage in Game Four – Bumgarner is much better than Blanton. Their bullpen is also deeper than Philly’s. The problem for the Giants is that their offense simply isn’t very good, and Philly can score runs in a hurry. SF scored only 11 runs in four games against the Braves, a figure that simply has to improve to beat Philly. Sandoval continued to struggle, and was even benched. San Francisco will have to break through against “H2O” to compete in this series.
Player to Watch: Freddy Sanchez. Sanchez remains a ‘professional hitter’, and ignited the game 4-winning rally for the Giants. The Giants are not a quick-strike offense, and players like Sanchez have to get on base for the meat of the Giants’ order to hit them in. If Sanchez and Andres Torres have a bad series, the Giants go home early.
Key Matchup: Bumgarner vs. Blanton. The one game that the Giants are clearly going to be favored, the Giants simply HAVE to win this matchup. Blanton is the definition of league-average, but if he can give the Phillies six solid innings the team will be happy. Bumgarner is a rookie; can he handle the pressure? So far, so good.
The Bottom Line: Should be a somewhat competitive series, but the Giant offense doesn’t have the horses. The starting pitching should steal a game, maybe two, but that’s it. PHILLY IN FIVE, as the Phillie dynasty continues its NL reign.
ALCS
Rangers vs. Yankees: My Twins upset prediction is Exhibit A in why you should trust the numbers, not your gut. All the numbers favored New York, especially with Morneau out, but I “wishcasted” rather than forecasted. As a reader pointed out, you can never count out the Yankees. Game One WAS the turning point in that series – the Twins had the lead, Liriano was cruising, but once the Yankees took the 6-4 lead you knew it was trouble…and when Pettitte shut them down in Game 2, that sealed it. Texas looked strong as long as Lee or Wilson was pitching, but the back end of their rotation was shaky and it’s clear that Josh Hamilton still isn’t 100%.
Both these teams can score, and both are led by tough lefty starters. The questions are in the back of the rotations – can Pettitte and Hughes dominate Texas like they dominated Minnesota? Can Wilson and Lewis give Lee some help in the rotation? Is Mariano Rivera really a cyborg (how else can you explain such machinelike effectiveness for 15 years)?
Player to Watch: Alex Rodriguez. A-Rod led the Yankees to a title last year with big hits in the postseason – in the first round he was 3 for 11, all singles – certainly not a difference-maker. Against the quality lefties of the Rangers, A-Rod will have to come up with a big hit or two.
Key Matchup: Vlad Guerrero vs. Sabathia and Pettitte: Vlad has always crushed lefties, and this year was no exception – he batted 50 points higher against southpaws than against righties in 2010. With Hamilton hobbled and a lefty, it’s unlikely he will be effective against these pitchers, so it falls to Vlad to produce.
The Bottom Line: I won’t get fooled again…the Yankees are still dangerous, and with Pettitte apparently healthy it’s almost impossible to pick against them. Texas has Cliff Lee, who has been a thorn in New York’s side, but Lee will pitch at most two games in this series. This series may well go seven games, but I just think the Yanks are a little better in the rotation and with Hamilton hobbled, a little better hitting as well. YANKEES IN SIX.
NHL Preview
Again, this is short and sweet compared to my usual – I simply don’t have time for the in-depth report I prefer.
East
1.) Washington – Easy division and dominant offense leads to another President’s Trophy – wake me up when the playoffs start and it really matters for this group.
2.) Pittsburgh – Despite their rough start I still believe in this group, especially once Staal, Orpik, and Michalek are healthy. The only real question is Fleury. More on this later this fall.
3.) Boston – This is the toughest division to figure because there are so many competitive teams in it now – but I like Boston’s defense and youth to win out.
4.) Toronto – My surprise pick of 2010-11; Brian Burke knows how to build a winner and this team will be much-improved.
5.) Philly – I’m not at all sold on them as a true contender, but they are a playoff team.
6.) Tampa Bay – My other playoff surprise, TB showed signs last year and I think they sneak in this time.
7.) Buffalo – Not nearly the force they were last season, they will struggle to make the playoffs unless they make a big move.
8.) New Jersey – Tough call between NJ, the Rangers, and the Islanders – I expect a tough, tough fight for the last playoff slot. This could be the end of the line for the Devils’ playoff run. The Kovalchuk contract is already costing them and will get worse over time.
9.) Rangers – Lundqvist and Gaborik keep them competitive, but they don’t have the horses.
10.) Islanders – I was set to pick them to make the playoffs until Mark Streit was injured for months. Still a team on the rise.
11.) Montreal – Trading Halak will be a move they regret. Still not enough scoring here, last year’s playoff run was very much a fluke. Note: this is the end of the true playoff contenders, the rest of the Eastern teams are rebuilding.
12.) Ottawa – Gonchar is the right move…three years ago. In 2011, the last thing they needed was another aging, defensively-challenged shooter. This team could easily collapse.
13.) Carolina – Tough team to gauge – are they rebuilding, or do they still fancy themselves contenders? They need to figure that out.
14.) Atlanta – Scrappy, and in the end they won’t miss Kovalchuk, but where’s the scoring?
15.) Florida – Move along, nothing to see here.
Western Conference
1.) Vancouver – The Caps of the West, Luongo won’t be considered a top goalie until he conquers his playoff demons.
2.) Los Angeles – This year’s up-and-coming contenders, LA, has youth, skill, and the cap space to make a big move mid-season.
3.) Chicago – Salary cap woes gutted the team – still a great core, but how quickly will they gel? Also, how will allowing their Cup-winning goalie affect the team? Giving up 13 goals in their first four games is not a good sign.
4.) San Jose – Perennial playoff bridesmaids may be a bit past their prime…maybe they need to be underdogs to win?
5.) Colorado – wilted down the stretch last year; should have more staying power in 2011.
6.) Detroit – the Wings’ idea of rebuilding is ‘only’ getting 90-95 points. They will still be dangerous, but age is creeping up.
7.) Dallas – Lehtinen is better than Turco, enabling the Stars to compete for a bottom-tier playoff berth.
8.) Nashville – admittedly a default pick, any of the next three teams could take this slot, but I still like the Preds’ defense enough to favor them here.
9.) St. Louis – Due for a bounce back after a sub-par 2010.
10.) Columbus – One of these seasons the GM will put a team around Rick Nash.
11.) Phoenix – Until the ownership mess is settled, this team is in trouble…a shame after such a promising season.
12.) Edmonton – The road back to respectability begins this season.
13.) Minnesota – Great goalie, no goals. Their fans deserve better.
14.) Calgary – Clueless. I expect Iginla to demand a trade this year.
15.) Anaheim – How the mighty have fallen.
Hard to believe it’s hockey season already. Busy time in the world of sports – enjoy!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
