Unless you were following the NL West, the last few weeks were pretty bland around baseball, as the AL playoff teams have been known for about a month, and the Reds and Phillies solidified their standing in early September as well. However, October baseball is always the finest kind, and we have some fairly intriguing matchups in the first round. Adding to the uncertainty is the reality of 5-game series: the shorter a series, the more an upset is possible. Over a short series the Pirates could (and did!) beat the Phillies, so all of this comes with the standard 1-word caveat – youneverknow. Let’s look at the AL first.
Texas Rangers (90-72) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (96-66)
Odds are you haven’t seen much of these teams this year, I know I haven’t. What surprises me immediately when looking at the stats is that the Rangers pitch better than I thought they did, and the Rays hit better than I thought. Texas is thought of as an offensive powerhouse, with Vlad, Hamilton, Cruz, etc. bashing their way to wins, and a pitching staff just good enough to keep them in games. The Rays are thought to be led by their pitching staff, particularly ace David Price, and are often thought of as a below-average offense due to their low batting average. While it’s true that the Rays hit just .247 as a team (.276 for the Rangers), their on-base percentage was .333, almost the same as Texas’ .338. In fact, the Rays outscored the Rangers for the season. On the flip side, while the Rays have a starting staff full of flamethrowers, the Rangers staff struck out almost as many as the Rays did – 1181 to 1189 for Tampa.
Player to watch: OF Josh Hamilton. He is the ‘straw that stirs the drink’ for Texas – .359 average, 32 HRs, 40 doubles in only 132 games. However, he has a rib injury that has kept him out the last part of September. If he’s not productive, the Rangers will likely fall.
Key matchup: Rays lineup vs. Rangers pitching. Typically I’d want to narrow this segment down somewhat, but an offense like Tampa’s is very streaky and very dependent on the walk – and many of the Ranger pitchers are stingy with walks, particularly Cliff Lee. Tampa has to find a way to get on base if they aren’t walking or they simply won’t score enough runs to win.
The bottom line: This appears to be a very even, interesting matchup. Texas is led by its potent bats and its fearsome bullpen, while the Rays depend on their starting pitching. Tampa has only two above-average hitters in 2010 – Crawford and Longoria. Frankly, the rest of their lineup is quite underwhelming, and they were very lucky to win 96 games with this offense. The injury to Hamilton gives me pause, but I think the Cliff Lee acquisition puts Texas over the top. Some will talk about lack of experience, but I don’t buy that – how much experience did Tampa have in 2008? This should be an interesting series, but Texas will outscore Tampa and the RANGERS will WIN IN FOUR.
New York Yankees (95-67) vs. Minnesota Twins (94-68)
Our only Division Series rematch should be more competitive this time around. Despite a lower ERA, I believe New York’s pitching is far more suspect than in 2009, and with the re-emergence of Francisco Liriano the Twins have a pitcher who is capable of silencing the Yankees’ potent offense. As usual, however, the Yankee offense is potent – the best in the AL again in 2010. New York has a balanced, powerful lineup with only a few holes – and for the first time in 16 years, one of those holes is at shortstop. Derek Jeter is finally fading, with career-lows in many offensive categories. LF is not better than average with Brett Gardner, and while Jorge Posada is still a good hitter, he is a liability behind the plate now. The rest of the offense packs a punch, led by 2B Robinson Cano. Cano is a legitimate MVP candidate now and probably the best second-baseman in baseball. The Twins cannot match the raw firepower of the Yankees, but Jim Thome had an amazing year at age 40 and of course Joe Mauer remains the finest catcher in the game. The Twins’ offense should have been crippled when Justin Morneau was lost for the year with a concussion, but they remained an above-average offense. Minnesota should be able to score enough runs to compete.
On the mound, the advantage has to go to the Twins – their rotation is deeper than New York’s, and the acquisition of Matt Capps has stabilized what was a shaky closer situation without Joe Nathan. Both teams have relatively underwhelming middle relief corps, and both need to get 6-7 strong innings from their starters. Mariano Rivera is still amazing, but the days of him pitching two and three inning saves are probably gone – at age 40, he will have to be used more selectively I would expect.
Player to watch: Andy Pettitte. Pettitte is scheduled to start Game Two, despite starting only three games since July 19. Can Pettitte give the Yankees 6-7 quality innings? If so, the pitching equation changes drastically. With only 13 innings in those three starts and 22 hits allowed, I have my doubts about his effectiveness.
Key matchup: Capps vs. Yankee LH batters. Â Â It is unlikely the Twins will win any blowouts, which means Capps will be counted on to close out some close games. Capps was better against lefties in 2010, but Pirate fans know that over the years he has had real problems getting lefty batters out. The Yankees have eight lefty or switch-hitters on their roster, and Capps will have to prove he can retire those batters if the Twins are to advance.
The bottom line: On paper the Yanks are still the Yanks – powerful, loaded with big-money stars, a force to be reckoned with. Call it a hunch, but I think the Twins can take them down this year. I’d feel a lot better about this if Morneau were available, but I think that home field advantage matters, and Mauer and Liriano can lead the TWINS to a win in FIVE.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
Atlanta Braves (91-71) vs. San Francisco Giants (92-70)
Get ready for a whole lot of 3-2 games…neither of these teams is exactly explosive on offense, and both have good pitching staffs. Unless there’s a blowout or an extra-inning game, there’s a good chance that you will not see a pitcher from either team with an ERA above 4.00 enter the game. Talk about mirror-image teams – both teams have three top starters (Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez for SF vs. Hudson, Hansen, Lowe for Atlanta), both bullpens have high-strikeout, low-ERA cores (Wagner, Venters, Saito for Atlanta; Wilson, Casillla, Romo for SF), both had disappointing third basemen (Chipper and Sandoval), and neither team’s offense is much above average. SF led the league in ERA, Atlanta scored more runs, but if you allow for their home parks I think these teams are as close to dead-even as you can get. In a series this tight, it will likely be an unsung hero that turns the tide.
Player to Watch: Tim Lincecum. Coming off consecutive Cy Young seasons, Lincecum was good-not-great this year – his walks, hits, and ERA were up, while his innings and strikeouts were down. Could be fatigue, could be more – he had a strong finish after a terrible August, which has to be encouraging for the Giants. If he’s up to his ’08-’09 form, the Giants have to be favored – if he gets knocked out early, the giants are likely toast. THAT is how close this series is.
Key Matchup: Andres Torres, Aubrey Huff and Pablo Sandoval vs. Braves’ starters. All of Atlanta’s likely starters are righties, and the lefty bats of the giants need to find a way to get to them. Atlanta’s bullpen is deep and tilts to the left, so if these guys are to make an impact, you figure it will have to be in the first six innings.
The bottom line: before looking at the numbers I was sure I’d pick the giants…but frankly, I can’t do it. Atlanta’s bullpen is so deep and so strong that these games will be all but over if Atlanta gets a lead after 6 or 7 innings…and I think San Francisco’s offense comes up a bit short against the Braves. This is the toughest series for me to call (now watch it be a sweep), but I’m going with ATLANTA IN FOUR.
Cincinnati Reds (91-71) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (97-65)
This series is perceived as the biggest mismatch, primarily because of the Phillies ‘Big Three’ starters – but did you know that the Reds scored the most runs in the NL? Their lineup is the most balanced in the NL – the only below-average bat is SS Orlando Cabrera. Joey Votto might have been the best hitter in the league, Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs are stars-in-waiting, and Brandon Phillips continues to be an underrated player. Make no mistake, these Reds are going to score some runs, even off the likes of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. The problem for Cincy is on the mound – to put it bluntly, they have the worst pitching staff of any of the playoff teams. Their version of an ace is Bronson Arroyo, a decent pitcher with 100 career wins – and a 4.19 career ERA. Their Game 1 starter, Edinson Volquez, has only 12 starts in the past two years due to arm surgery and has posted a 4.31 ERA in 2010. The bullpen is also good-but-not-great – you’ve probably heard about Aroldis Chapman and his 105 MPH fastball, and Arthur Rhodes continues to defy age, but closer Francisco Cordero was not very effective and the rest of the ‘pen is mediocre. This could be the highest-scoring series in the first round.
Player to Watch: Volquez. Yes, he’s coming off surgery and yes, his season-long numbers were not great – but in September he found his form, throwing 27+ innings over four starts and allowing only six runs. The Reds will need a starter to step up and match Philly’s big guns, and Volquez is the most likely candidate.
Key Matchup: Bruce and Votto vs. Halladay and Oswalt. Votto and Bruce MURDERED righties this year, and they will have to get to Doc and Roy to keep their team in this series. Votto, in particular, is the Reds’ best player and he has to come up huge for the Reds to win.
The bottom line: Most are predicting the Phillies to advance, and do so with ease. I cannot go against the Phitins, but I do think the Reds will show some life and make Philly work for it. Game 1 is really key – if the Reds can dent Halladay and Volquez shows he’s back, this series could go the distance. But in the end, Philly’s starters and the longer schedule (keeping the Phils from exposing the back of their rotation) have me picking the PHILLIES IN FIVE.
Up next: NHL Preview, starting with the Eastern Division later this week!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
