What a first round! Every series tied after 2 games, Detroit forced to a Game 7, and the top-3 Eastern seeds go down – but the Caps’ meltdown after holding a 3-1 series edge is clearly the headline story of the first round. Things went more according to Hoyle out West, where the top three seeds plus the favored Wings all advanced, which has set up two fascinating series in that conference. In the East, all roads to the Cup now lead (again) through Pittsburgh. I was pretty pleased with calling six of eight series correctly, especially since one of the misses was a series everyone missed – we’ll look at all four second-round series in a minute, but first I have to comment on the biggest NHL upset of the last decade.
Going into Wednesday’s Game 7, I realized that the game was more than just a series decider – it likely represented a real crossroads for a franchise. Washington DOMINATED the regular season in every way, only lost five regulation games at home, employed the 2-time defending (and likely 2010 winner) MVP in Ovechkin – and yet found themselves in a do-or-die game against the lowly Montreal Canadiens. If the Caps won Game 7, the path to the Cup finals was wide open – with Jersey and Buffalo out, the only credible threat left was Pittsburgh, a team likely to be tired by the Conference finals and a team Washington dominated in the regular season. Lose Game 7, however, and it was almost certain that major changes were in store for a franchise that is now 1-3 in playoff series over the past three years (and the one win was a 7-gamer over an overmatched Rangers squad, reminiscent of the Canadiens this year).
 After the loss Wednesday – and three straight losses in which they scored a TOTAL of three goals – the future of the Capitals seems very cloudy. Will the loss cost coach Bruce Boudreau his job? Will perennial playoff chokers Mike Green and Alex Semin be trade bait? Will ownership go a step further and fire the GM? I am not sure which way the Caps will go, but I’d be SHOCKED if they don’t make a major move of some type this summer – in three seasons, the Caps have shown no ability to play a grind-it-out, gritty, playoff style. That has to change if the Caps are to fulfill their enormous promise.
While the Caps play some golf and ponder the future, eight teams are left vying for Lord Stanley’s Cup. Let’s preview the West first….starting with, in my mind, THE most intriguing matchup of the second round.
#5 Detroit vs. #1 San Jose:  San Jose escaped the first round, despite a major scare from the undermanned Avalanche – and the reward for their victory is a date with the 2-time Western Conference champs. All the pressure here is on San Jose, who much like the Caps have a tradition of regular season excellence and postseason failure. Detroit has won four Cups in the last 12 years, and if they lose this series everyone will give them a pass for being out of gas after two straight Cup Finals appearances.
This series, to me, comes down to offense – both teams have good goaltending and play a shutdown defensive style. Every game figures to be a close, low-scoring affair. Detroit steamrolled the Coyotes in Game 7, looking like the juggernaut of yore, but that masked their incredibly spotty play in the first six games – including an unbelievable 5-2 loss on home ice in Game 6. The Wings summoned another level of play when they needed it, but how many more times can this veteran (read: aging) group go to that well before it runs dry? San Jose, meanwhile, HAS to get their big guns untracked – much like the Caps (see a pattern here?), San Jose got virtually no production from their top scorers. They relied heavily on the likes of Joe Pavelski and Devin Setoguchi (eight of the team’s 19 opening-round goals), while the top line of Heatley, Marleau, and Thornton combined for one goal in the series.
Key players: for San Jose it’s definitely Thornton and Heatley – especially Thornton, who desperately needs a big series to shake his ‘playoff choker’ label. For the Wings, Jimmy Howard is key – San Jose will throw a lot of rubber on net, and if Howard lets a few softies in, that could well be the difference.
Without the Sharks’ top players making the big plays, San Jose has almost no chance in this series. Detroit’s big guns were their best players in Round 1, and you’d expect no less from them – they are proven performers in the postseason crucible. This should be a long series either way, the only result that would truly shock me is a sweep by either team. Such a tough call, but I think the Phoenix series took a lot out of the Wings…I’m going to pick SAN JOSE IN SEVEN, but I’ll admit I’m not terribly confident in this pick.
#3 Vancouver vs. #2 Chicago: In some ways this series is the opposite of the Detroit-SJ series – I expect both teams to score, the questions are in goal. In Vancouver, Roberto Luongo has long been viewed as a ‘franchise goalie’, but has been lit up a few too many times in his playoff career to truly be considered among the best. He really needs a deep playoff run, and probably a Cup, to seal his legacy. On the other side, Chicago has perhaps the deepest, most diverse team in the league – except in goal, where Antti Niemi had a good opening-round series overall but is still considered the weak link on the team. Looking deeper, Niemi was feast-or-famine against Nashville – he recorded two shutouts, but allowed 13 goals in his other four starts. He also showed this in the regular season, with seven shutouts in only 35 starts but also 10 games in which he allowed 4+ goals or was pulled. Chicago will need a more consistent performance against the more powerful Canucks. The Hawks were EXTREMELY lucky to win in six against Nashville, Game 5 was one of the all-time larcenies – shorthanded, down a goal, and they scored with their net empty with under 20 seconds to go.
Key players: for the Canucks, Henrik Sedin led the league in regular-season scoring, but only had one goal in the first round. Mikael Samuelsson isn’t likely to score seven goals again in this round, so Henrik has to find the net a bit more against the Hawks. For Chicago, besides the aforementioned Niemi, I’m going to go with a defensive pair – Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith. Neither was particularly impressive in the first round, and they will often be called upon to check the Sedins. Vancouver DOMINATED the Kings at even-strength – Chicago cannot allow the Canucks’ top players to own 5-on-5 play or they will lose.
If Vancouver can avoid major penalty problems, I think they are poised to advance here – I know that Chicago beat them a year ago, and I worry some about the Canucks’ defense corps – but Luongo is past-due for a big series. Again, no result would really shock me – these are two very evenly-matched teams – but I’m taking VANCOUVER IN SIX.
#7 Philadelphia vs. #6 Boston:  I picked Boston last round, and I knew the Flyers had a good chance – but did ANYONE imagine that Boston would gain home-ice at ANY point in the playoffs? What an opportunity for two teams that looked DOA only a couple of weeks ago – Boston couldn’t score, and the Flyers couldn’t stop anyone. It’s not like Boston lit up the scoreboard last round (16 goals in six games) – but they got 3+ goals three times and won all of those games. This round will be a similar story – can the Bruins find enough offense to get past the Flyers? I’m skeptical – there was a time when it would be ok if your top playoff scorers are Mark Recchi and Miro Satan, but that was 10 years ago. In 2010, it means your offense isn’t good AT ALL. Marc Savard is set to return and will give the team a big lift, but goal-scoring will be an issue for the Bruins.
The Flyers have problems of their own – both Simon Gagne and Jeff Carter suffered broken feet in round one, and both will likely miss the series. Gritty forward Ian Laperriere blocked a shot with his head and is likely done for the year. Despite these injuries and down to their third goalie, the Flyers still whipped Jersey handily in Game 5. The most surprising aspect of their first-round win was their defense – they allowed only eight goals in five games and only one power-play goal. Both of those numbers will likely rise – Philly isn’t good enough on defense to do that for two rounds – but Boston’s anemic offense should keep Philly’s defensive numbers looking good.
Key players: for Philly it’s all about the goalie. If Brian Boucher is good, the Flyers will win easily. If he’s shaky this series could go to Boston. In Boston, I think the key player is Savard – if he’s truly healthy, he gives them a playmaking dimension they’ve lacked, and forces the Flyers to play matchups with their top defense pairing, Pronger and Timonen.
Yet another series that’s really tough to call – the injuries make Philly a tough team to read, and Boston will keep every game close behind their tough ‘D’ and the most underrated goalie in the league, Tukka Rask. In the end, though, I think this is the BEST matchup Philly could have drawn, and I think the FLYERS will WIN IN SIX.
#8 Montreal vs. #4 Pittsburgh: Championship teams need some luck. Last season, the Pens were a #4 seed but drew home-ice in the Conference Finals when the Bruins got upset, which handed the Pens a favorable matchup with Carolina. They also survived two OT games after Washington took a 2-0 series lead.  In 2008, a similar situation played out as the Pens beat the #5, #6, and #7 seeds en route to the Finals. This season, the two teams I felt would almost certainly beat the Penguins were the Devils and (especially) the Capitals – both teams are gone. Not only does Pittsburgh pick up home-ice until the Cup Finals, they also draw the team I think they match up against best – Montreal played exceptionally well against the Capitals, but they were outshot by a large margin and were heavily reliant on their goaltender.
Pittsburgh is quite adept at playing a grinding, punishing offensive style that will wear down the smaller, already-weary Canadiens. Washington did not get very physical at all with the ‘Habs’ – that will not be the case with the Pens. I find it inconceivable that Halak can play this well (he stopped 13 of the last 106 shots last round) over a sustained period. Montreal successfully employed a ‘rope-a-dope’ strategy – they allowed a lot of shots, but mainly from the outside. They did not allow many second-chance shots, and they were EXTREMELY opportunistic when they found a chance to attack. Conversely, after Game 1 and the first shot of Game 2 I thought Pittsburgh really clamped down defensively and limited Ottawa’s chances, and dominated long stretches of play after that. That simply must continue, because Fleury is still a bit of a liability in net – the goal he allowed at the onset of Game 2 is among the weakest I’ve ever seen him allow. He doesn’t have to steal the series, or even match Halak, but he must be solid and consistent for the Pens to allow their talent and experience to win the day.
Aside from goaltender, there is one other area where Montreal is clearly superior: special teams. Montreal had the #2 power play during the regular season, while Pittsburgh struggled most of the year with the man advantage. Pittsburgh’s penalty-kill had a rough series against Ottawa, while Montreal held the mighty Caps to only one PP goal – perhaps their most amazing accomplishment in a series full of them. Pittsburgh wants to play 5-on-5, get into a grinding, punishing, cycling game and wear the Habs out. Montreal wants every ticky-tack penalty called, and will take their chances with their PP against the Pens’ PP.
Key players: for Montreal, aside from Halak, I’m going to say Hal Gill. He looked slow as ever against the Caps but his positioning and savvy were excellent, and he was a MAJOR reason the Caps didn’t score much. No one in Montreal knows Crosby and Malkin’s tendencies like he does – the Habs will lean heavily on Gill to keep Sid in check. For Pittsburgh, I think Malkin is key – after a rough regular season he showed signs of life in the postseason, and now that his parents are back in town I expect an extra burst from him. In addition, Montreal will likely focus on stopping Crosby, opening up chances for ‘Geno’ and his linemates.
Despite my earlier pessimism, the Pens find themselves in the best position of any team left – and one thing they’ve shown the past few years is that they are opportunistic when handed a gift like this. They respect Montreal, especially after such a big win, and I want to emphasize that if Montreal can beat Washington, literally ANYTHING is possible in the playoffs – but I think the Pens are the safest bet of all to advance this round. Halak will steal a game or two, but I’m going with PITTSBURGH IN FIVE, which if I’m right would set up Flyers-Pens III in the Conference Finals. The first round was amazing – the second promises to be even better, make sure you watch some hockey!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
