I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – April is a GREAT sports month. Baseball comes back, the Masters signals the REAL start of spring – and the NHL finally gets down to its REAL season, the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The long, 82-game regular season grind was worse than normal this year for most of the best players because of the Winter Olympics – some players were visibly tiring down the stretch all over the league. Will the playoffs bring a second wind, or an early exit to the Pens and Wings? Let’s look at each series, starting out west. NOTE: I’m not putting their head-to-head records in here – I think it’s just short of meaningless now. How teams fared against each other a few months ago has little to do with what will happen now, and the Pens proved that last year.
Western Conference
#1 San Jose (113 points) vs. #8 Colorado (95 points): The much-maligned Sharks caught a REAL break here – for awhile it looked like Detroit might be the 8 seed, which would have made them arguably the toughest 8 seed since this playoff format was introduced. Colorado played over their heads for much of the season behind some great young talent and a hot goaltender in Craig Anderson. However, they faltered late, going 3-7-3 over the last month and generally hitting a wall. The Sharks, on the other hand, finished VERY strong and have their usual deep lineup – six players with 50+ points, and three centers with 25+ goals. The question, as always for the Sharks, is will they convert their top seed this time, or fail in the postseason again? The West is incredibly deep this season – seven teams got to 100 points (only four in the East) – but San Jose should escape a 2nd-straight first-round exit. Colorado has had a great year and the future looks much brighter, but I cannot see them getting by San Jose – if the Sharks DO lose, however, look for sweeping changes. SAN JOSE IN FIVE.
#2 Chicago (112 pts) vs. #7 Nashville (100 pts): I’ll admit it, I cannot figure out how Nashville got to 100 points. They only have one 30-goal scorer (only two even got 20!), only two players with even 50 points, they gave up EXACTLY as many goals as they scored…yet somehow went 47-29-6. Looking at their schedule, they won a lot of OT games, which is another indicator that they were a bit lucky. The most fascinating thing to me, however, is that this team prefers to avoid special teams play. Their power play was below average and at 77% their penalty-kill was downright bad – but at even strength, they were well above-average. Unfortunately, they are facing the best 5-on-5 team in the West – Chicago is so deep and so skilled, they are ok with a run-and-gun game or a grind-it-out affair. Six 20-goal scorers, 12 10+-goal scorers, outstanding defensemen…the only real question in Chicago is in goal. Can Antti Niemi and Cristobal Huet be solid enough to allow the talent to win out? I’m not sure over the long haul, but for this series I think Nashville is in a lot of trouble. They are feisty and will steal a game or two, but the Hawks are too much – CHICAGO IN SIX.
#3 Vancouver (103 pts) vs. #6 Los Angeles (101 pts): Probably the most intriguing Western series for me – Vancouver scored the most goals of any Western team, had the league’s leading scorer in Henrik Sedin, and has a top goalie in Luongo – this is the best Vancouver team since 1994’s Cup final group. The time is now for this core – the Sedins turn 30 next year and Luongo is 30 now. A few weeks ago I had this team in mind to come out of the West, but I’m a bit less optimistic now. They haven’t allowed less than three goals in a game since March, and only twice in their last 11 games. They started off hot but cooled considerably down the stretch. Finally, despite having six 25+ goal scorers, I am concerned that if you stop the Sedins you stop this team – and LA has just the defensemen for that job in Rob Scuderi and Drew Doughty. The Kings are up-and-coming, but much like the Penguins they struggle with secondary scoring. Doughty is one of the premier 2-way defensemen in the world and Anze Kopitar is now a star, but after that this team struggles to score goals. Both teams had a 20% power play, and neither were great on the penalty kill, so look for special teams to play an unusually large role in this series – the team that takes the most penalties will be in some trouble. If Luongo plays up to his reputation, the Canucks should be a very dangerous team – but when has he ever done that in the playoffs for a long run? I think LA will put quite a scare into the Canucks, but in the end I think VANCOUVER finds a way to pull it out IN SEVEN.
#4 Phoenix (107 pts) vs. #5 Detroit (102 pts): Phoenix draws the short straw here, getting the one team nobody in the West wanted early – the Wings are aging, and fought tooth and nail most of the year just to make the playoffs, but you just KNOW they will be hard to eliminate as always. Most importantly, they are healthy and peaking at just the right time – 13-1-2 in their last 16 games reminds me of the Penguins last year. However, this Wings team is going to struggle to score goals more than any Detroit team in recent memory – they had only two 25-goal scorers, and all but one of their top-8 scorers is 30 or older. The downside to their late-season push might be they don’t have any reserve energy left for the playoffs, especially after two straight Finals runs and the Olympic grind for many of the Wings. Phoenix, on the other hand, is THE Cinderella story of 2010 – no one had them even fighting for the #8 seed, much less finishing with the 4th-best record in the league. It’s interesting how similar the Coyotes are to the Red Wings on paper – neither team scores much (Phoenix had only one 20-goal scorer and only two got 50+ points), both have solid defense corps, and both rely heavily on goaltending – but while the Wings rely on young, relatively untested Jimmy Howard the Coyotes have Ilya Bryzgalov, who finally has a team around him strong enough to get him noticed. This should be a very low-scoring series, and that will enable the Coyotes to make things very interesting if Bryzgalov steals a game or two. I just cannot go against the Wings here – I think Phoenix is a bit of a flash in the pan, and reality is about to sink in – but I do think they will push Detroit very hard, and if the veteran Wings overlook this team they are in for a shock. DETROIT IN SIX.
Eastern Conference
#1 Washington (121 pts) vs. Montreal (88 pts): On paper, the biggest mismatch in years – no one has made the playoffs with 88 points since the lockout, and 121 points is 3rd highest in the last 25 years. However, in that time, the top regular-season team has won only seven Cups – so clearly regular season prowess is not a great predictor of postseason success. Washington is the #1 offense in the league BY FAR – 46 goals ahead of 2nd place. Perhaps most interesting is the youth of these Capitals – six of their top seven scorers are 26 or younger, so this team will be tough for quite awhile. This team is, in my opinion, the most skilled NHL team since the 1990’s Penguins – and like that era, the question with the Caps will always be do they play enough defense to win? The Caps are often more than happy to trade offensive chances with their opponents, knowing that most often that’s in their favor. Will they be able to sit on a lead, play a lower-scoring, grinding style when necessary? But let’s be honest – this team played the Pens to a 7th game last spring, and would have won had they gotten a couple of bounces. This year’s team is even better – it’s foolish to think of them as anything less than the favorites in the East. The Canadiens are simply outclassed here – there were only two playoff teams that were outscored on the year, and Montreal was one of them. The ‘Habs’ don’t score a lot of goals, and while they have some good top-end defensemen they lack depth on the blueline. Their ONLY hope is their goaltending – Halak has been very strong, and Carey Price still has the tools to be a top netminder. If one of them can steal two or even three games, Montreal has a chance – but that’s not going to happen. These Caps are battle-tested and hungry, and Montreal will bow out quickly. WASHINGTON IN FOUR.
#2 New Jersey (103 pts) vs. #7 Philadelphia (88 pts): Every year New Jersey rides strong defense and goaltending to the playoffs. They have accumulated 95 points or more every season since 1997, under eight different coaches and with a plethora of different forwards. The constant has been Marty Brodeur in net – leaving out his injury-plagued 2009 season, Brodeur has won at least 37 games every season since ’97, with a goals against average of under 2.50 every season – and most often under 2.25. However, the Devils have had trouble in the postseason of late, and I think it’s because the league now rewards skill more and defense less. The Devils’ style of play still gets them 100 points, but they don’t score enough to hang with the top teams. I look for a similar pattern this season, actually, especially since Brodeur is aging and the team struggles to score if Parise and Kovalchuk are held in check. Philly, meanwhile, is the polar opposite – they seem to always score plenty of goals, but cannot find an answer in net. The loss of 33-goal scorer Jeff Carter to a broken foot really hurts their chances, though – they need to outscore teams with their perilous goaltender situation (their top two goalies are out due to injury). This series may also turn on special teams – New Jersey played more even-strength hockey than any team in the league, while Philly was among the league leaders in both power plays and times shorthanded. Philly’s power play was lethal as usual, so they want a tightly-called series with lots of penalties, while the Devils would prefer the refs ‘let ‘em play’. With Carter in, I’d be sorely tempted to take the Flyers – and I’ll definitely be rooting for them to win both this round and then the 2nd round against Washington – but I think they just don’t have the horses this season. NEW JERSEY IN SIX.
#3 Buffalo (100 pts) vs. #6 Boston (91 pts): Tough series to figure. Both teams are defense-first teams, although the Bruins take that to an extreme as the 2nd-lowest scoring team in the entire league. Both teams feature fantastic goaltending, huge defensemen (the Bruins have 6’9” Zdeno Chara, while the Sabres counter with 6’8” Tyler Myers), great penalty-killers, and average power plays. The Sabres have more goal-scoring punch than the Bruins, but the Bruins are far more experienced. The Bruins simply have to figure out how to score three goals in three or four games – they won’t win four games 2-1, and they know Miller will shut them down a couple of games. The simply HAVE to find that offense that’s been dormant all season, and without their top playmaker, Marc Savard. The Sabres have to worry about fatigue – their goalie played a grueling Olympic tournament for the USA, and their top defenseman (Myers) is only 19 yet logged over 23 minutes of ice time per game. The numbers say Buffalo, but I just cannot shake the feeling that Buffalo played a bit over their heads and that Boston will rally behind the injury to Savard and pull the upset. BOSTON IN SEVEN.
#4 Pittsburgh (101 points) vs. #5 Ottawa (94 points): With all due respect to Ottawa, this series isn’t about them – they are just another average team that isn’t going anywhere. No, this series will be a good barometer for the Pens – if they play their game and have the energy, they could blow right past Ottawa and breeze into the 2nd round. However, if they really are as tired as they’ve looked the last two weeks, they could go out early this year. The 2010 Pens remind me of the 2008 Senators actually – that team was coming off a Cup finals run, got off to a great start, played .500 hockey the last five months and was swept out of the playoffs by a young, hungry Pittsburgh team. The Pens are coming off TWO Finals runs, six of their top players endured the Olympics as well as the compressed NHL schedule, and they struggled down the stretch. In past years the Pens rallied in March and April, this year they were only a little above-average. Now, they suffered through a lot of injuries, but the truth is I don’t think this team has the defense to repeat. Beating Ottawa is another story – recall earlier I said only two playoff teams were outscored during the regular season – Ottawa was the other team, allowing 13 more goals than they scored. In addition, Alex Kovalev tore his ACL last week and is done for the year – and it’s not like the Senators were an offensive powerhouse to begin with. Ottawa’s goaltending is average, their power play is subpar, they get no scoring from their blueline, and they’ve gone 8-9-2 since the Olympic break – clearly they are not a great team. The Pens need to concentrate on shutting down Alfredsson and Spezza – do that, as they did in ’08, and they will win. Pittsburgh should get Kunitz back for Game 1, making them as close to 100% healthy as they’ve been all season. I think they will struggle at times in this series, and an upset would not shock me – but I’m taking PITTSBURGH IN SIX here, based solely on their superior skill. Getting past the 2nd round would really surprise me, though, unless they show me another gear for the postseason.
Eight series, plenty of games to watch the next two weeks – make sure to catch as many as you can, this is hockey at its finest!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
