As promised, this week we’ll take a look at the trade-deadline moves, with most of the focus on the Penguins’ moves. We’ll also take a look at the playoff races around the NHL and predict the 16 playoff teams.
The Eastern Conference was not very active on trade deadline day this season – but several big moves happened a few days or weeks before the actual deadline. The biggest was Ilya Kovalchuk, a defenseman, and a draft pick going from Atlanta to New Jersey for three players and two draft picks – a deal similar in scope to the Marian Hossa deal that the Penguins engineered two years ago. New Jersey has had scoring depth issues the past few seasons and have become overly dependent on defense and brilliant goaltending to keep them afloat – and typically by April that formula has worn down the team and led to early exits. Kovalchuk gives them a sniper to complement the fantastic (and underrated) Zach Parise, and makes them a much bigger threat in the East. The downside is that to Kovalchuk, defense is a dirty word – and the Devils under Jacques Lemaire play a strict defensive system. Early returns were not good, as the Devils are only 4-5-1 since the trade. Really, though, this is a trade that will have to be graded after the season – the Devils are a lock to make the playoffs, and regardless of their seeding if they cannot win a round or two this trade will have failed for the Devils (especially if, like Hossa, Kovalchuk bolts as a free agent this summer).
Other trades of note: The Rangers tried to address their chronic scoring woes as well by trading for Olli Jokinen – again, thus far results are underwhelming, Jokinen has only two goals in 11 games for the Blueshirts. Brian Burke is making his mark as Toronto’s new GM already, trading for tough defenseman Dion Phaneuf for a stable of mediocre players. I have no idea why the Flames decided to trade Phaneuf; they are in playoff contention and Toronto is building for 2011 and beyond. Pittsburgh’s chief Eastern competition, the Capitals, made three relatively low-profile moves, acquiring D Joe Corvo, D Milan Jurcina, and F Eric Belanger. All three moves were designed to shore up the team on faceoffs, penalty kill, and overall defense. The Caps have more than enough firepower; they must play strong defense and get strong goaltending to get to the finals this year. I like their moves, although I still think they lack a true shut-down defensive presence.
The Penguins made two trades of note – first they sent a 2nd-round draft pick to Florida for D Jordan Leopold. I expected a move for a defenseman, but not a puck-mover like Leopold – the Pens have plenty of those in Gonchar, Letang, and Goligoski. I thought they’d go for a tougher, more physical d-man, but there seemed to be a paucity of those available and there’s no question that Leopold improves the team on the blueline. He is very versatile, capable of manning the point on the power play or killing penalties. He’ll never be a top scorer or a big penalty-minute guy, but in many ways he reminds me of Rob Scuderi – quietly effective. This was a decent move for Pittsburgh, if somewhat less than I think they needed.
The other, more notable deal was the trade of prospect Luca Caputi and exiled D Martin Skoula to the Toronto for winger Alex Ponikarovsky. ‘Poni’ is a 6’4” left winger brought in expressly to help Evgeni Malkin, and with his physical presence and willingness to go to the net I think he will be an excellent fit. Giving up Caputi hurts, as the Pens are running perilously short of skilled forward prospects, but the team is in full win-now mode and desperately needed an upgrade on the wing. Ponikarovsky is a free agent this summer but I believe he will stay, especially if Sergei Gonchar and his $5 million salary come off the books.
The pieces are in place for another deep playoff run – the biggest question mark to me is in net. Fleury has been extremely up-and-down most of the season, and while Brent Johnson is a quality backup he’s not likely to be a Cup-winning starter. The Pens have no shutouts on the season, and I can only think of one or two games all season where a goalie stole a game for the team – conversely I can think of five or six (including Thursday at Carolina) where the Pens completely dominated the competition and goaltending cost them the game. Fleury has shown the ability to find another level in the playoffs, and he was a key contributor last spring – the team might have more talent than last year overall, but they will need Fleury on his game or it will be a shorter spring for the Pens.
As for the playoffs, what was an incredibly wild race for the bottom two spots in the East is getting much more clear – Boston has a five point lead over the Rangers and Thrashers. With 16 games to go that’s not insurmountable, but it’s not going to be easy, either. With Boston’s Marc Svard out due to a concussion suffered at the hands of Matt Cooke*, Boston’s already anemic offense will really be challenged down the stretch. I think the Rangers will sneak into the last spot, with the Canadiens 7th, the Senators 6th, Philly 5th, the Devils 4th (setting up yet ANOTHER Philly-Jersey series), Buffalo 3rd, the Pens 2nd, and the Caps easily taking the top spot.
(*- Cooke should have been suspended for the hit on Savard. I was at the game and I’ve seen the replay about 10 times – he went out of his way to hit him long after the shot was gone. Some have commented to me that it’s a violent game and hits like that are unavoidable – I refuse to accept that. You can have speed and physical play without these unnecessary blindside, concussive hits. Again, I point to the Olympics – that hit draws an automatic five minute major and a game misconduct, and suspension for the next game – and lo and behold, there was only one cheap shot that I can remember in the entire tournament. Hockey is at it’s best when its fast and gritty, but hits like Cooke’s go well over the line and have no place in the game. Ask yourself – what would Pens fans be saying if someone laid a hit like that on Crosby?)
In the West, San Jose and Chicago are the cream of the crop – but we’ve seen this story before in San Jose. Until they win two or three playoff rounds, they are suspect. Chicago has everything except proven goaltending, and that’s why I think they will remain #2 behind the Sharks. Vancouver should earn the #3 seed and are my early favorite to come out of the West – more on that in a few weeks. The surprising Coyotes and Avalanche will finish four and five and meet in the first round, while the up-and-coming Kings will earn the #6 slot. THEN the interesting battle – Nashville, Calgary, and Detroit fighting for the last two spots, with the Red Wings out of the playoffs if the season ended today. However, the Wings will manage to get in, and I believe they will earn the #7 seed – they are finally healthy, and getting Franzen back was akin to a huge deadline deal move for them. Normally I’d pick Calgary to sneak in the last spot, but I think that they will pay the price for moving a stud like Phaneuf – plus Nashville is totally under the radar, they have a solid team but no one is talking about them. St. Louis and Dallas are only five and six points back but I don’t believe that either has the horses to make up the ground.
Should be an exciting race down the stretch for position…before the REAL fun starts in April with the Stanley Cup Playoffs! Next week we begin our baseball previews.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net, or (preferably) by leaving a comment belo
