After a surprising divisional playoff round of the NFL playoffs (at least to me), we’ll take a look at the conference title games this week and break down the matchups – and look back on why the Eye stumbled last week (1-3 against the spread, 2-2 straight up). We’ll start with the AFC.
NY Jets (+8) at Indianapolis: This is probably a game Colts fans are dreading. Many fans were outraged that the Colts pulled their starters in the second half against the Jets in Week 16, which enabled the Jets to come from behind and pick up a crucial win. Had the Jets lost, they would have missed the playoffs, and Indy still would have had a shot at an undefeated season. Indy’s philosophy has remained the same for years – the Super Bowl is the goal, not an unbeaten record – and while I agree with that, I also agree with ESPN.com’s Bill Simmons – if you MUST play the starters for a half, play them in the SECOND half, give the fans something to look forward to, and the backups will have the benefit of starting the game and not being ‘thrown into the fire’ late in the game with the score on the line. In any case, the Colts gave the Jets life, and now NY is one step away from the big dance – can they pull off a miracle and make the Super Bowl after a 9-7 regular season?
I said last week that the Jets had everything needed to be a force except a QB – because Sanchez is a rookie. They have done a MASTERFUL job of protecting him, and to his credit, he hasn’t had that ‘rookie moment’ in the playoffs yet. The Jets are so much like the 2005 Steelers it’s scary – strong defense, commitment to running the ball, strong coach, talented QB who isn’t quite ready to carry the team, 6th seed…the list goes on. That Steeler team went into Indy and pulled an absolute shocker. For the Jets to do the same, they have to pressure Manning, run the ball effectively, win the turnover battle, and keep their luck (opposing kickers are 0-5 on FGs in the playoffs) going. The turnover battle is key – the backs have to hold onto the ball, but most importantly Sanchez has to play smart, take a sack or an incompletion rather than force any throws. His defense is so good that this will be a 4th quarter-type game if he plays it safe.
For the Colts, they HAVE to stop the run. The Jets thrive on controlling the clock, grinding it out, shortening the game. The Colts’ D is fast but not big, and the Jets have thrived running between the guards. That up-the-middle matchup is one to watch. Also, offensively the Colts need balance – their running game is frankly not very good, but they need to establish a bit of the run to keep the Jets guessing. Manning is the smartest QB alive – he will make the right reads almost all the time, but the line needs to keep him clean.
In the end, I think this is a close game – closer than the spread for sure – but I cannot pick against Manning here to win. So I like the JETS to cover but the COLTS to go to Miami.
Minnesota (+3.5) at New Orleans: What’s interesting to me here is the line – home field is supposed to be worth three points, so the oddsmakers (and by extension the public) think this game is close to a tossup on a neutral field. I think the Saints would be favored in such a scenario, and I also think THEIR particular home field is worth a lot more than three points. No crowd is louder or more passionate right now than the Superdome crowd, and it will be a stiff challenge for Favre and the Vikings to overcome that.
For the Vikings, they have to run the ball and shorten the game, much like the Jets. Minnesota is good, but they aren’t in the Saints class for explosiveness – if this becomes a track meet it definitely favors the Saints. Defensively they have to generate pressure from their front four, cause a few turnovers, and as we said last week concentrate on limiting the damage – realistically you know NO will get at least 20 points and probably 30, the goal should be to limit them to FGs whenever possible and force punts. I’ve bashed Favre all year, but time to give the man his due – he came up HUGE last week against the Cowboys, and proved he still can bring it when it counts. He’ll need another big game Sunday, probably over 300 yards and 3 TDs to have a chance.
For the Saints, offensively they have to set the pace. We know that no lead is safe against them, they have so many weapons and Drew Brees has become the master conductor of this show. If they don’t turn the ball over, they will almost certainly win. Defensively they have to stop Peterson and make Favre throw over 40 passes – and hit him when he does. The Saints’ defense is a bit underrated, they have some speed but they are by no means a shutdown unit – they know, however, that with their offense they only need to make a few key stops and win the turnover battle.
This should be a fun game to watch – lots of points, probably three or four total turnovers, momentum swings – but I think the SAINTS pull away in the second half and win by 10.
Next week, a hockey midseason review, culminating with the Pens’ needs at the trade deadline.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
